The region
occupied today by Libya was
controlled by the Ottoman Empire from 1551 to
1912. In 1912 the Italians took control of the region, after the
Italian-Ottoman war of 1911-1912. In 1951, the Arab islamist King Idris, with
the help of the British, whom he had helped against the Germans and the
Italians during the Second World War, declared the independent monarchy of Libya .
In 1959 big oil fields were discovered in Libya, and in 1969, the arab
socialists, with the help of the Soviet Union, under Muammar Qaddafi, overturn
the King and came to power, imposing a socialist dictatorship.
Picture 1
Muammar Qaddafi,
like all other socialist dictators of the Middle East and North Africa, was a Russian
ally, and he was getting his arms from the Soviet Union .
But these dictators were following a very different socialist model than the
one followed by the Russian socialists. Russian socialists were following socialism
and internationalism, because they were facing very different populations in
their colonies of Central Asia and Eastern Europe .
The Russian socialists were Christian Orthodox, and they had to united under
their leadership the Turkic populations of Central Asia ,
the Christian Catholics, the Christian Protestants, but also the Muslims of
Eastern Europe and the Balkans. There were also Slavic and non-Slavic
populations in their colonies.
Therefore
the Russian socialists had to eliminate the ethnic and religious factors, in
order to absorb the population of their colonies. That’s why they banned
religion and they emphasized the working class, demonizing the ethnic factor.
Today, that Russia has lost
her colonies in Central Asia and Europe, Putin is using Slavism and
Christianity aggressively, in order to promote the Russian energy policies in Europe .
On the
other hand, the Arab socialist dictators were facing a very different
situation. They were facing a very homogeneous population, with the Arab and
the Muslim factor being dominant. Therefore the Arab socialist dictators invested
a lot in socialism and Arab nationalism. Gamal Nasser, the Russian ally and
socialist dictator of Egypt ,
used Arab nationalism (Panarabism), together with the Syrian socialists, in
order to unite the Arabs of the Middle East under his leadership, and gain
control of the oil of the Persian Gulf . See
“The Intra-Arab War for Oil 1950-1970”.
Muammar
Qaddafi, the Libyan socialist dictator and Russian ally, used socialism and
Arab nationalism, in order to united Morocco, Algeria, Libya and Tunisia, under
an Arab Islamic Republic, which would give the Arabs of North Africa more
bargaining power over their European customers, who were buying their oil and
gas. Even though this kind of unions are very difficult, because there is
always the issue of who will have the power, the Arab Islamic Republic makes
some sense, because Algeria is very rich in natural gas, Libya is very rich in
oil, and Morocco and Tunisia are of strategic importance for transferring the
oil and natural gas of Northern Africa to Europe.
Muammar
Qaddafi managed to reach some understanding with Tunisia , as you can read at the following
Wikipedia link, titled “Arab Islamic Republic”.
1st
Paragraph
The Arab
Islamic Republic (Arabic: الجمهورية
العربية الإسلامية al-Jumhūrīyah al-‘Arabīyah al-Islāmīyah) was a proposed
unification of Tunisia and Libya in
1974, agreed upon by then Libyan head of
state Muammar Gaddafi and Tunisian
President Habib Bourguiba. Additional countries — Morocco and Algeria — were later included in the
proposal, which was never implemented.
However Qaddafi,
as was the case with Nasser, did not manage to unite North
Africa under his leadership. In the same way that Gamal Nasser
failed to unite the Arabs of the Middle East
under his leadership, Muammar Qaddafi failed to unite the Arabs of North Africa
under his leadership. Please check the following two tables from the Energy Information
Administration, which show the richest countries in natural gas and oil
reserves.
Picture 2
Picture 3
As expected,
Qaddafi was very hostile towards the United States . But Qaddafi did not
have problematic relations only with the US
and England , but also with France ,
a country with great tradition in socialism and anti-Americanism. Qaddafi did
sell oil to France , and the
other countries of Southern Europe, but he did not really have any other
choice, since Russia
did not need his oil. That’s why it is said that Qaddafi had good economic
relations with France ,
but very poor political relations.
Two were
the main problems in the relations between France and Qaddafi. The first one
was that France was the main
ally of Israel from 1948
till the 60s, because France
and Israel
had common enemies. France
was at war with the Algerian socialists and islamists, because Algeria
was a French colony until 1962. Moreover the Egyptian socialist dictator Gamal
Nasser, who was a Russian ally who rose to power in 1952 till his death in
1970, was threatening to close the Suez Canal, and he was a great problem for France and England .
Picture 4
Therefore Israel was very useful for France , since the two countries had
common enemies. Many people believe that it was the US
which was the main supporter of Israel
in its early years. But this is not true. France
was supplying Israel with
more arms than the US , and Germany was supplying Israel
with more money than the US
in its early years, as reparations for the Holocaust. It was in the 60s, starting
with the American President John Kennedy, that Israel
and the US
became the allies that everybody talks about today. Even though today there is
a big crisis in the American-Israel alliance.
Moreover,
in 1956, when Gamal Nasser wanted to close the Suez Canal, it was France , England
and Israel that invaded the
Sinai Peninsula, and were ready to overturn Nasser .
The famous Suez Crisis. But the United States
opposed the military operation, and the three countries had to leave Egypt humiliated.
It was clear that England
and France, the two main powers and rivals of Africa ,
were not the main players anymore. The United
States and the Soviet Union
had taken their place.
To make a
long story short, France
continued to supply Israel
with arms, but after France
lost Algeria , and after the United States took control of the Middle East, Israel was not very useful for France anymore. Therefore France
started making energy and arms deals with the Arabs, and gradually France
became a very pro-Arab country, with very high levels of anti-Semitism. Today French
Jews have to leave France
because they are not safe anymore.
2nd Paragraph
Britain, along with
its European partners, imposed its arms embargo on Israel
in 1982 in protest at its invasion of Lebanon .
But from
the 60s onwards, with the rise of the pro-Russian socialist dictators in the
Middle East and North Africa, and with the Persian Gulf
playing a growing role in the American foreign policy, the Americans used the
Turks and the Israelis as their main allies against the Soviets.
The other
problem that Qaddafi had with the French, which I think was even more important
than the one with Israel ,
was that the French had great influence over Africa, and Qaddafi believed that
the African countries near Libya
belonged to his sphere of influence. Therefore he accused the French of being
colonialists. Therefore Libya ’s
good economic relations with France
were not accompanied by good political relations, and it is not very surprising
that the French were the protagonists in the attacks against Qaddafi.
The truth
is that Qaddafi had too many enemies and almost no friends. The United States
and the English were his enemies. Many times in the past Qaddafi had used socialist
terrorists against these two countries. The French had a very problematic
relation with Qaddafi too, and the islamists Arabs of the Persian
Gulf wanted him gone, because he was a Russian ally who had always
been against them. That’s why Qatar
and Saudi Arabia
were very active in the operations against Qaddafi. Even Russia and China
abstained from the United Nations meeting that imposed a non-fly zone on Libya , as you can read at the following Guardian
article, titled “Libya
no-fly resolution reveals global split in UN”, March 2011.
Picture 5
It is true
of course true that the Russians did not want Qaddafi dead, and they were very
angry when that happened. But the Russians turned their back on Qaddafi, and
did not veto the UN resolution because they did not want to go against the
French. In 2011 relations between France
and Russia
were good. The Russians had given France
small stakes in the Russian natural gas pipelines, and they had also ordered
two Mistral war ships from France ,
with the prospect of buying another two. This was the largest ever military
order between a non-Nato and a NATO country.
Moreover
the Russians believed that Qaddafi would finally have to go, and they did not
want to be in bad terms with the new leadership, because that would harm the
Russian and the Chinese energy companies operating in Libya . See the Guardian article,
titled “G8 summit: Gaddafi
isolated as Russia joins demand
for Libyan leader to go”, March 2011, which mentions that Qaddafi was isolated
when Russia
turned her back on him.
1st Paragraph
Colonel Gaddafi has
beenleft diplomatically deserted after Russia , his sole international
interlocutor joined the rest of the G8 nations in declaring the Libyan leader had
lost all legitimacy and had to go.
Moreover there is a big difference
between North Africa and Syria
as far as Russia
is concerned. Syria is Russia ’s playground, which is not the case with North Africa . The countries of Southern Europe import most
of their energy from North Africa, and the countries of North
Africa export most of their energy to these countries. Therefore
even though the socialist dictators of North Africa
were Russian allies, Putin had to take into account the Europeans when dealing
with them, and the socialist dictators had to take into account the Europeans
when dealing with the Russians.
The countries of the Middle East and North Africa are run by socialist or islamist dictators,
and they cannot achieve economic progress. They have to rely on the exports of
their raw materials. They same is true for Russia ,
Venezuela ,
and all other socialist and islamist countries. China
is an exception, because due to her rivalry with the Soviet Union, China allowed western companies to enter China
in 1980, and she managed to progress. Before 1980 China was like all other socialist
and Islamic countries.
But let me
return to the subject. As you can read at the following Reuters article, titled
“ENI leads Libya oil race; Russia ,
China may lose out”, August
2011, if Russia and China
were to support Qaddafi to the very end, they would take the risk of being excluded
from energy projects by the next regime, which could not forgive their support.
The article mentions that Qatar
and the French Total, together with the Italian ENI, could be the big winners
in post-Qaddafi Libya .
1st and 2nd
Paragraphs
“Italian oil company
Eni led the charge back into Libya on Monday as rebels hailing the end of
Muammar Gaddafi's rule warned Russian and Chinese firms that they may lose out
on lucrative oil contracts for failing to support the rebellion”.
Gaddafi's fall will
reopen the doors to Africa's largest oil reserves and give new players such as
Qatar's national oil company and trading house Vitol the chance to compete with
established European and U.S. oil majors.
"We don't have
a problem with Western countries like the Italians, French and UK
companies. But we may have some political issues with Russia, China and
Brazil," Abdeljalil Mayouf, information manager at Libyan rebel oil firm
AGOCO, told Reuters
16th, 17th and 18th Paragraphs
About 75 Chinese
companies operated in Libya
before the war, involving about 36,000 staff and 50 projects, according to
Chinese media.
Russian companies,
including oil firms Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM) and Tatneft TATN3.MM, also had projects
worth billions of dollars in Libya .
Brazilian firms such as Petrobras (PETR3.SA) and construction company Odebrecht were
also in business there.
"We have lost Libya completely," Aram Shegunts, director general of
the Russia-Libya Business Council, told Reuters. "Our companies will lose
everything there because NATO will prevent them from doing their business in Libya ."
21st Paragraph
Wintershall said
restarting production could be done within several weeks: "This of course
depends on the state of the export infrastructure as well as a stable security
situation in the country," it said. Analysts and industry observers have
said Eni and Total could emerge as the big winners in post-war Libya
due to their countries' heavy support for the rebels.
I must also
say that in the beginning Italy
was also reluctant to participate in the operations against Qaddafi, because
the Italian ENI was the foreign company that had most of the projects in Libya .
But Italy was worried that France could get most of the energy projects in
post-Qaddafi Libya , if Italy
supported Qaddafi, and the Italians started bombing Qaddafi too. Moreover the
Italians were very mad when Qaddafi said that he would give ENI’s projects to Russia and China ,
if the Russians and the Chinese were to increase their support to the Qaddafi
regime, as you can read at the following Reuters article, titled “Italy 's
Berlusconi exposes NATO rifts over Libya ”, July 2011.
1st Paragraph
Italian Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi said on Thursday he was against NATO intervention in
Libya
but had to go along with it, an admission that exposed the fragility of the
alliance trying to unseat Muammar Gaddafi.
16th Paragraph
Potentially adding
to the pressure on Italy to
review its stance on Libya ,
a senior Libyan government spokesman said negotiations had begun with Russian
and Chinese firms to take over the role of Italian energy firm ENI in oil and
gas projects.
But as I said, because ENI was the largest
foreign company in Libya , Italy was
not very willing to participate in the operations against Qaddafi in the
begining. At least Italy
did not have the motives that the French, the English and the Qataris had to
overturn Qaddafi. As you can read at the following Wall Street Journal article,
titled “Eni, Repsol Expatriates Evacuated from Libya ”,
July 2014, the Italian ENI and the Spanish Repsol were the largest investors in
Libya .
1st and 2nd
Paragraph
Oil giants Eni SpA
and Repsol SA
have evacuated expatriates from Libya
following escalating violence at Tripoli 's
airport, Libyan oil officials said over the weekend.
The move by the
country's two largest foreign oil and gas investors, which comes after
France's Total SA
also pulled out its foreign staff, comes as capital's worst fighting in six
months threatens Libya's fragile oil recovery.
A very good article about the role of
England and France in the Libyan war is Forbes’ “France , U.K. Have Differing Motives For Intervening
In Libya ”,
March 2011. The article says that France
and England
were from the first ones to attack Qaddafi but each one for different reasons.
The English had very bad relations with Qaddafi, and they were hopping to
improve their presence in a post-Qaddafi Libya .
The French, according to the Forbes,
even though they were importing oil from Libya ,
since the French Total was very active in Libya ,
had the chance to enhance their military cooperation with the English, in order
to isolate Germany in Europe . The article mentions the military agreement
between France and England in November 2010, which according to the
Forbes was an effort by the English and the French to isolate Germany in Europe .
And the article continues, that the French Total had many projects in Libya ,
but not as many as the Italian ENI and the German Wintershall. I must add that
ENI and Wintershall are the Italian and German companies which got the large
shares in the Russian natural gas pipelines. The Forbes concludes that the
French companies would enjoy a greater role after Qaddafi’s overturn.
Moreover the Forbes mentions that the
French were supplying Qaddafi with arms, but the Italians had managed to sell
more arms to Libya .
In a sense the article implies that the French were not very happy with Libya , because she was aligned with the axis of Germany , Italy
and Russia .
In both World Wars, Italy
started on one side and finished on the other. It is not clear on which side Italy
will be if the Third World War breaks out.
2nd, 3rd and 4th
Paragraphs
6th Paragraph
The domestic
political story is fairly straightforward. At the onset of the unrest in the
Middle East, Paris
stalled on recognizing the protesters as legitimate. In fact, then-French
Foreign Minister Michele Alliot-Marie offered the Tunisian government official
help in dealing with the protesters. Three days later, longtime Tunisian
President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee the country
10th Paragraph
The intervention in Libya therefore is a way to reassert to Europe,
but particularly to Germany ,
that France
still leads the Continent on foreign and military affairs. It is a message that
says if Europe intends to be taken seriously
as a global power, it will need French military power. France’s close coordination
with the United Kingdom also is an attempt to further develop the military
alliance between London and Paris formalized on Nov. 2, 2010, as a counter to
Germany’s overwhelming economic and political power in the European Union.
12th Paragraph
As for interests in Libya , France has plenty, but its
situation could be improved. French energy major Total SA is involved in Libya
but not to the same extent as Italian ENI or even German Wintershall.
Considering Libya ’s plentiful
and largely unexplored energy reserves, French energy companies could stand to
profit from helping rebels take power in Tripoli .
But it is really military sales that Paris
has benefited from thus far. Between 2004 — when the European Union lifted its
arms embargo against Libya —
and 2011, Tripoli has purchased approximately
half a billion dollars worth of arms from France ,
more than from any other country in Europe .
However, the Italian government was in negotiation for more than a billion
dollars worth of more deals in 2010, and it seemed that the Rome-Tripoli
relationship was overtaking Paris’ efforts in Libya prior to the
intervention.
16th Paragraph
London has another
significant interest, namely, energy. British energy major BP has no production
in Libya, although it agreed with Tripoli
to drill onshore and offshore wells under a $1 billion deal signed in 2007. The
negotiations on these concessions were drawn out but were finalized after the
Scottish government decided to release convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdel Baset al-Megrahi on
humanitarian grounds in August 2009. He was expected to die of prostate cancer
within months of his release but presumably is still alive in Tripoli . The Labour government in power at
the time came under heavy criticism for al-Megrahi’s release. British media
speculated, not entirely unfairly, that the decision represented an effort to
kick-start BP’s production in Libya
and smooth relations between London and Tripoli . BP announced in
2009 that it planned to invest $20 billion in Libyan oil production over the
next 20 years.
The war in Libya is not over. Today there are two
governments in Libya , one recognized
by the international community in Tobruk, and the islamist one in Tripoli , supported by Turkey ,
Qatar
and some other countries. As you can read at the following Reuters article,
titled “Libyan PM says Turkey
supplying weapons to rival Tripoli group”, February
2015, Libya ’s Prime
Ministers accused Turkey and
Qatar of supplying with arms
the islamists of Tripoli .
1st
and 2nd Paragraphs
Two administrations,
one in the capital and Thinni's in the east, have been battling for power since
the armed group Libya Dawn seized Tripoli in July and reinstated lawmakers from
a previous assembly, four years after Muammar Gaddafi was ousted.
10th
Paragraph
In the CBC
interview, Thinni said Turkish firms would be excluded from contracts in
territory controlled by his government, adding that any outstanding bills would
be paid.
13th
Paragraph
Thinni also accused Qatar
of giving "material" support to the rival side in the Libyan
conflict. He did not elaborate.
17th
Paragraph
The Brotherhood has
a presence in the rival parliament in Tripoli
and western Libya .
As you can read
at the following Financial Times article, titled “Tripoli
authority sacks prime minister”, March 2015, the head of the Islamists in Libya publicly praised ISIS .
5th
Paragraph
Mr Hassi had emerged
as the face of the Islamist-leaning authority in Tripoli
but became a liability once he publicly praised predecessor groups of Isis , including the UN-listed terror group Ansar
al-Sharia. He said these were partners in the effort by his National Salvation
Government to crush armed forces loyal to the government that is
internationally recognised and holed up in the eastern city of Tubruq .
This is war.
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