Σάββατο 27 Φεβρουαρίου 2016

Kurds VS Iran

The Kurds of Iran (KDPI) say they are ready to face the Iranian army. The Kurds of Iran are fighting for their independence since 1918, and I guess if at some point they are given the chance, they will try it once more during the current turmoil. The only Kurds who are very rich in oil and gas are the Kurds of Iraqi Kurdistan (North Iraq).

Map 1 Kurdistan



The United States have common interests with the Kurds of Syria and Iraq, the Russians have common interests with the Kurds of Turkey, Iran, and maybe the Kurds of Syria, as long as the Kurds of Syria stay away from the Mediterranean Sea, the Turks have common interests with the Kurds of Iraq, the Iranians have common interests with the Kurds of Syria, maybe with the Kurds of Turkey too, as long as Kurds of Turkey do not mess with their pipelines to Turkey, the Israelis have common interests with all the Kurds, and the Arabs of the Persian Gulf have common interests with the Kurds of Iran and Turkey.

The United States would like to see an independent Kurdistan in Syria and Iraq, the Russians would like to see an independent Kurdistan in Turkey and Iran, the Israelis would like the whole Kurdistan to be independent, while the Arabs, the Turks and the Iranians do not want an independent Kurdistan at all.

Even the Kurds themselves are not sure about the independent Kurdistan they want. The Kurds of Iraq, who are very rich in oil and gas, would like to have some form of autonomy, in order to control their oil and gas. The Kurds of Turkey, Syria and Iran, who are very poor in oil and gas, would like a very strong central authority, in order to control the oil and gas themselves.

There are approximately 11.5 million Kurds in Turkey, 2.5 millions in Syria, 4-5 millions in Iran, and 6.5 millions in Iraq. Therefore, with a very strong central authority the Kurds of Turkey, who have a strong influence over the Kurds of Syria, would control the oil and gas of the Iraqi Kurdistan. But the Kurds of Iraq would not like that.

Articles

“Kurdish groups say they are ready to repulse Iranian army”, February 2016

“Kurdish separatism in Iran


Τετάρτη 24 Φεβρουαρίου 2016

Egypt VS Turkey - From the Ottoman Empires to the Zohr Field

A very good article from Washington Institute, the American think, about the hatred between the Egyptians and the Turks over the centuries. The article begins from the Ottoman Empire, when Egypt was an Ottoman colony fighting for her independence, then it goes to the Cold War, when Egypt was a Soviet ally and Turkey a NATO member, and then to the US-Egypt alliance in the mid 70s, which did not bring Egypt and Turkey closer. On the contrary, Egypt was supporting Cyprus in the Cypriot-Turkish rivalry, and Turkey was supporting Israel in the Egyptian-Israeli rivalry.

Map 1



The article also refers to the Arab Spring and the present times, and the hatred between the Turkish Islamist leader Tayip Erdogan and the socialist Egyptian leader Abdel Sisi. The Turkish President supported the Egyptian Islamists, who were overturn by the Egyptian socialists led by Sisi.

Then there is the civil war in Libya, with Egypt supporting the internationally recognized government of Tobruk at the East, and Turkey unofficially recognizing the Islamist government of Tripoli at the West, by not recognizing the Torbuk government. The Egyptians bomb ISIS in Libya, infuriating the Turks, and the Turks supply with arms the Islamist government of Tripoli, and maybe ISIS too.

Map 2



I must also say that Turkey and Egypt are competitors by geography, since these two countries have controlled from the ancient times the two most important Silk Roads, i.e. the trade routes that connect Asia and Europe.

Map 3



I must also say that the discovery of the Zohr field in the Egyptian waters, in August 2015, might improve or deteriorate the relations between the two countries. If Egypt wants to export her gas, it is only Turkey and Europe that can absorb large quantities. If Egypt and Turkey reach an agreement, and Turkey imports Egyptian natural gas, the relations between the two countries will improve. If Egypt decides to export its gas to Europe, bypassing Turkey and the neo-Ottoman doctrine promoted by Erdogan and Davutoglu, the relations between the two countries will further deteriorate.

For the article see:
Turkey and Egypt's Great Game in the Middle East”, February 2016


Δευτέρα 22 Φεβρουαρίου 2016

Why it is Difficult for Russia and Saudi Arabia to Increase Oil Prices

A very nice article from Forbes, that explains why it is currently very difficult for the international oil cartel to increase oil prices. The price of oil has collapsed below 30 dollars per barrel in 2016. The following tables from Statista depict average oil prices from 1960 to February 2016.

Average Oil Price 1960 – February 2016 Statista








Forbes refers to the agreement between Russian and Saudi Arabia. The two countries agreed to freeze their oil productions in order to boost prices. Russia and Saudi Arabia are the two largest exporters of oil. Qatar, and Venezuela have already accepted the deal. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman have also said they will respect any deal reached by the major players. However the article says that for a number of reasons it is difficult for the agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to be effective i.e. increase oil prices.

First of all, at the moment the Russia and Saudi Arabia produce huge quantities, and freezing their production means they will keep producing huge quantities, since the agreement does not involve reductions in oil productions.

Moreover, according to Forbes there is a credibility issue, and each party worries that the other parties will not respect the agreement in practice, and it also gives Russia as an example. In 2001 and 2008 Russia agreed to reduce her production but did not actually do so. According to Forbes Qatar is willing to monitor the deal in practise.

An even greater problem is that Iran refuses to freeze its production, because by December 2015 Iran was only producing 2.7 million barrels of oil per day, while Saudi Arabia is producing approximately 10 million barrels per day. Now that economic sanctions against Iran have been lifted, Iran wants to bring its production to a level of 5.7 million barrels per day by 2018.

Iraq is the other problem. Iraq is currently producing 4.35 barrels of oil per day, and it is planning to increase its production to 6 million barrels per day by 2020.

Finally there is the problem of the American energy companies that produce oil from shale rock. These are private companies and are not part of the international oil cartel. They will keep producing oil as long as they find a buyer for their oil, and as long as the price per barrel exceeds its cost of production. To fight the American companies the international oil cartel is hoping that Bernie Sanders will rise to power in United States, in order to heavily tax the American energy companies. By doing so Sanders will increase the price of oil in the United States, which in turn will make the oil of the international oil cartel more competitive, and they will manage to gain a part of the share currently held by the American companies. See “American Politics in the Age of Oil : The Bernie Sanders Phenomenon”.

I must also say that after the American companies invented new production techniques which allowed the production of oil and gas from shale rock, the United States became the largest oil and gas producer in the world and they are a big problem for the international oil cartel, which is placing its hopes to people like Bernie Sanders and his likes.. It is true of course that due the huge volume of the American economy, the United States remain the largest importer of oil. See Bloomberg “U.S. Ousts Russia as Top World Oil, Gas Producer in BP Data”, June 2015

Articles

“Despite Stillborn Deal, Saudi-Russian Petrodiplomacy Could Reshape The Future Of Oil”, February 2016

“Average annual OPEC crude oil price from 1960 to 2016 (in U.S. dollars per barrel)”, February 2016

Κυριακή 21 Φεβρουαρίου 2016

American Politics in the Age of Oil : The Bernie Sanders Phenomenon

Qatar Likes Bernie Sanders

The following Al Jazeera article explains why American women must vote for the Jewish candidate Bernie Sanders, and not for the Christian candidate Hilary Clinton. Al Jazeera is the Qatari state-owned news agency, which is basically owned by the King (Emir) of Qatar. If Hilary Clinton wins the nomination, and then the general election in November 2016, she will be the first female American President in history. However Al Jazeera is trying to convince American women to make Sanders the first Jewish President of the United States, instead of making Hilary Clinton the first female one.

See “Why women should support Sanders not Clinton”, February 2016.

For the ownership of Al-Jazeera see Guardian.
“Al-Jazeera expected to cut hundreds of jobs”, September 2015
1st and 2nd Paragraph
Al-Jazeera is expected to cut hundreds of jobs worldwide as the Qatari-owned broadcaster looks to make savings in the face of a falling oil price and a possible radical change in investment strategy.
The surprise move will not only see an estimated 800 to 1,000 staff go – almost one quarter of the total workforce – but could presage the emir of Qatar reducing the state’s commitment to the news media group that was supported by his father. The news organisation has been a hugely successful way of maintaining influence in the Arab world and beyond.

Al-Jazeera’s preference for the Jewish candidate is very strange, given that Qatar, together with Turkey and Iran, is arming Hamas. Hamas is the Islamist organization running Gaza, and in its covenant was openly asking for the Israel’s annihilation, and it is also a big time anti-Semitic organization. Hamas had to accept some changes due to the pressure exercised by some foreign governments, but everybody knows that this has to do with the way Hamas promotes itself, and not with a real change of attitude towards Israel. See for example See also Anti-Defamation League “Hamas in Their Own Words”.

See also the Guardian. “Hamas drops call for destruction of Israel from manifesto”, January 2006.

Therefore, to say the least, it is a bit funny to see support towards Bernie Sanders by a media outlet owned by the Qatari King, who in turn is funding the anti-Semitic Hamas. What is even funnier is that even though Al Jazeera belongs to a King, it is a center-left or even a left news agency, and its viewers are socialists, as you can read at the following Washington Post article. See “Ranking the media from liberal to conservative, based on their audiences”.

Image 1 Left and Right Media



Therefore one wonders how it is possible for a news agency which belongs to the Qatari King to have leftist journalists, being watched by a leftist audience, and at the same time support the Jewish candidate in the American elections. And this gets more confusing when it is taken into account that Qatar is funding some of the most fanatic Islamic terrorist organizations around the globe. See for example the Telegraph “Qatar and Saudi Arabia have ignited time bomb by funding global spread of radical Islam”, October 2014.

See also
“How our allies in Kuwait and Qatar funded Islamic State”, September 2014.

After the 9/11 attack at the Twin Towers, Al Jazeera mentioned that the Jews who worked at the Twin Towers had been warned and did not go to their work on the day of the attack. See for example Wikipedia.

“Al Jazeera controversies and criticism”
1st Paragraph
An article in the American Journalism Review noted that critics of Al-Jazeera have "assailed what they see as anti-Semitic, anti-American bias in the channel's news content."[7] An example cited from earlier years was a report in Al-Jazeera that Jews had been informed in advance not to go to work on the day of the September 11 attacks, which was criticized by an October 2001 editorial in the New York Times. An often-repeated example involves an on-air birthday party organized by Al Jazeera's Beirut bureau chief for a Lebanese militant convicted of killing four Israelis, including a four-year-old girl. Al Jazeera greeted Samir Kuntar, released in a July 2008 prisoner swap, as a hero. A more recent example given by the article is the weekly show "Sharia and Life" by Yusuf Qaradawi, an Egyptian cleric who, according to a February 2011 article in The Atlantic, "argues clearly and consistently that hatred of Israel and Jews is Islamically sanctioned."[7][8]

Before explaining what is going on, I hope it is obvious that there is something wrong to when you have a leftist news agency, owned by an Arab Islamist King who fights Israel, watched by a leftist public, which is also supporting the Jewish candidate. Only socialists and Islamists are capable of being so silly.

Note that in order to operate in United States, Al Jazeera had to buy a license, and the Emir of Qatar paid 500 million dollars to buy Al Gore’s tv channel i.e. “Current TV”. Al Gore was the vice president of the Clinton administration. After paying 500 million dollars for Current TV, Al-Jazeera American also hired 800 journalists in the United States, and spent another 2 billion dollars promoting the channel. See for example Wall Street Journal.

“Al Jazeera to Shut Down American News Channel”, January 2016
1st, 2nd, 3rd Paragraph
When Al Jazeera America was launched to great fanfare in 2013, its then-leader boasted he didn’t have to worry too much about profits.
After all, the cable news channel was backed by the oil-and-gas-rich government of Qatar, and oil was trading around $100 a barrel.
On Wednesday, with oil trading near $30, Al Jazeera made an about-face, announcing it was shutting its American cable channel by April 30 for economic reasons.
7th Paragraph
But the U.S. channel faced acute financial challenges of its own. After purchasing Al Gore’s Current TV for nearly $500 million, Al Jazeera put some $2 billion into Al Jazeera America, said people familiar with the matter. It hired some 800 journalists at launch and opened 12 bureaus around the U.S.

Can you imagine how many American academics and journalists where bought by Qatar with these 2 billion dollars? Actually these 2 billion dollars are peanuts when compared to what Qatar invests in the United States. Only for the next 5 years Qatar is planning to invest 35 billion dollars in United States. See for example Bloomberg “Qatar Planning $35 Billion of U.S. Investments to Diversify”, September 2015.

1st, 2nd Paragraphs
Qatar plans to invest $35 billion in the U.S. over the next five years as it seeks to diversify assets.
The Qatar Investment Authority, which helps manage the country’s energy-generated wealth, opened an office in New York to "better access new and existing investment partners," the sovereign fund said in a statement Monday. It will target various sector of the U.S. economy and help create American jobs, Qatar’s ambassador to Washington, D.C., Mohammed Al Kuwari, said in Twitter postings, without giving more details on potential investments.

Qatar and the other petro-states of the Persian Gulf also invest heavily in American universities and think tanks, and have great influence over professors, who in turn use their push their students in adopting an anti-Israel view of the Middle East. This does not have to do only with Israel. It is a more important problem, and it has to do with the Islamization of American and European universities by leftist professors funded by petro-states. See for example the following articles from Financial Times and New York Times.

“Western universities’ reputations at stake in Gulf links”, October 2013
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th Paragraphs
Educational establishments based in the west are facing funding crises as they seek to maintain their reputations for academic excellence. Meanwhile, Gulf states, flush with oil wealth, are tackling domestic education crises. Too many members of their growing young populations are failing to acquire relevant skills.
The result has been an increase in financial links between top British, North American and French universities with their regional political allies in the Gulf, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Under the financial patronage of Sheikha Moza bint Nasser al-Missned, the wife of Qatar’s recently departed emir, the gas-rich state has attracted eight institutions to a sprawling campus on the outskirts of Doha, the capital. Premier institutions such as the University of Paris-Sorbonne and New York University have benefited from Abu Dhabi’s oil riches by setting up satellite campuses in the UAE capital.
The financial risk to the western universities of their partnerships in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are removed by generous Gulf state funding.
10th Paragraph
Foreign universities tend to accept there are unwritten rules about what can and cannot be said in the context of specific projects,” says Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of Cornerstone Global Associates, a consultancy, and a fellow at King’s College London.

See also
“US: Gulf states biggest donors”, June 2008

And also:
“Foreign Powers Buy Influence at Think Tanks”, September 2014

Therefore it is not surprising that American and European leftist professors are so anti-Israel, and they make sure their students are anti-Israel too. See for example “Anti-Israel events skyrocket on US campuses”, October 2015.

Israel has a strong army due to its alliance with the United States, but when it comes to communication it is literally destroyed by the Muslim counries. Remember that Israel has a GDP of only 300 billion dollars, while the Muslim countries have a GDP of many trillion dollars when added together. Just Saudi Arabia has a GDP of 750 billion dollars (2014). Moreover there are less than 15 million Jews, with Israel included, while there are 1.6 billion Muslims. And it is the Muslim countries i.e. the Arabs and the Iranians, who have the oil. That’s why it is so easy for the Muslims to buy leftist professors and journalists in Europe and the United States.

For the cooperation between the American and European left and the Islamists in the 21st century see also “The So-Called Wars of Religion”.
Having said all that, I have to ask once more why on earth Al Jazeera is friendly towards Bernie Sanders? The arguments of the Al Jazeera article is that Clinton has never denounce the Israeli colonialists, and that Bernie Sanders is more socialist than Hilary Clinton. I must also say that the reason the King (Emir) of Qatar can afford to be a King and at the same time being a socialist, who is also loved by the European and American socialists, is that tiny Qatar has a population of only 300 thousand people, while it is the larger exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world. There are approximately 2.2 million people living in Qatar, but only 300 thousands of them are Qatari citizens, with the rest of them being economic immigrants.

Qatar is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world, and it is the richest country in terms of per capita GDP i.e. country income / population. Therefore the “socialist” King can be very generous to the Qatari people, and he can be very generous towards the European and American socialists. It is like if I have 1.000.000 euro by myself (Qatar) and someone else has 10.000.000 euros but he also have 10.000 kids. I have 1.000.000 for myself, while the neighbors have 10.000.000/ 10.000 = 1.000 euros each. Therefore I have the liquidity to buy socialists in Europe and the United States, and also Jihadists in the Muslim World.

So what is it that would make Qatar, and other oil and gas exporting countries to fund the campaign of Bernie Sanders, or even support him without funding him, just by using their huge influence in the media and universities? I am not saying that Qatar bought Bernie Sanders. I am just saying that Qatar likes Bernie Sanders. I really have no idea whether Qatar is directly or indirectly funding his campaign. I really hate conspiracy theories and truthers. After all the Obama policy towards Iran is not good for Qatar. It is true of course that Obama sees Islamists in a positive way. Remember that Obama recently visited a Mosque which in the past was connected to radical Islam. See Fox News “Baltimore mosque set for Obama visit has controversial ties”, February 2016.

Obama, like most left and center-left politicians likes Islamists, and more than appreciates their business. However the Obama policy towards Iran did not help Qatar. I am trying to say that I am not looking for conspiracy theories. I am just examining economic interests. I do not even think the Al Gore deal with Qatar was suspicious. I used the example to show the extent of the Qatari influence. Al Gore is a businessman and has every right to do what he did. It is a good thing to have businessmen in politics rather than having academics, journalists and lawyers.

Why does Qatar Likes Bernie Sanders

The truth is that Qatar likes Bernie Sanders mainly for two reasons. The first one, and the least important I think, is that Bernie Sanders is a socialist Jew, and like most socialists Jews he is hostile towards Israel. Sanders is similar to the communist American-Jewish intellectual Noam Chomski, who blames Israel for everything that goes wrong. Noam Chomski is always used by the socialists and the Islamists as an example of a good Jew, and he was even banned from entering Israel. See Haaretz “Noam Chomsky Denied Entry Into Israel and West Bank”, May 2010.

For Bernie Sanders tough stance towards Israel since the 90s see Haaretz “Sanders in 1990: Wish U.S. Would Pressure Israel Harder on Palestinian Issue”, February 2016. Haaretzh is the oldest Israeli newspaper and it belongs to the center-left, and it is very critical towards Netanyahu. I mean it is not that Haaretz does not like Sanders because he is a socialist.

However I think the main reason the Qataris like Bernie Sanders is not his anti-Israel attitude, but something else. With the new production techniques developed by the American energy companies, it became possible to produce oil and gas from shale rock, and the United States is very rich in shale rock. Actually the United States became the largest producer of oil and gas, even though it is still the largest importer of oil due to the huge size of the American economy. See Bloomberg “U.S. Seen as Biggest Oil Producer After Overtaking Saudi”, July 2014.

The American oil and gas production made the American political elite hungry for even more money and power, and they want a larger share of this production for themselves, even though they always talk in the name of the people and democracy. One of Sanders’ most important political views is to tax more the American energy companies, as you can see at his site (taken on 15.2.2016).

“Combating Climate Change to Save the Planet” (taken 15.2.2015)
Right now, we have an energy policy that is rigged to boost the profits of big oil companies like Exxon, BP, and Shell at the expense of average Americans. CEO’s are raking in record profits while climate change ravages our planet and our people — all because the wealthiest industry in the history of our planet has bribed politicians into complacency in the face of climate change. Enough is enough. It’s time for a political revolution that takes on the fossil fuel billionaires, accelerates our transition to clean energy, and finally puts people before the profits of polluters.
                 -Senator Bernie Sanders

Imposing even larger taxes on American companies will not only make Sanders and the American political elite richer and stronger, but will also increase the price of oil and natural gas, and that will make the American production less competitive, which is extremely useful for the large producers of oil and gas abroad i.e. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia etc. Therefore Sanders, the Arabs, the Iranians and the Russians, they all have common interests. That’s why you see Qatar being so friendly towards a Jewish candidate.

The term “resource curse” refers to a strange phenomenon, under which rich in resources countries tend to have slower growth, more corruption and less democracy. It is not a coincidence that Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Russia, who are the biggest international terrorists, are sitting on the Persian Gulf – Caspian Sea – West Siberia axis, which holds approximately 2/3 of the worlds oil and gas reserves.

Map 1 The Axis of Oil and Natural Gas




It is always easier for socialist and Islamist dictators to rise to power in countries that are rich in resources. They simply have to promise everything to everyone and people will like them and they will give them power. It is the same story in Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Soviet Union etc. See Wikipedia “Resource Curse”.

Therefore now that the US can produce large quantities of oil and natural gas there will be hungry socialist elite that will desire more and more of it. Bernie Sanders might just be the beginning of the “resource curse” for the United States. However it would take sometime for American socialists to transform the United States to a socialist dictatorship, because the United States has a strong constitution that protects it, and many years of capitalism made sure there is a strong institutional framework. However for a beginning Bernie Sanders could transform the United States to something like Norway. In Norway capitalism came first, and it created a strong institutional framework. See “The Swedish Economic Model : A Socialist or a Free Market Success”?

When oil was discovered in Norway in the late 60s it was not possible for the Norwegian socialists to transform the country to a socialist dictatorship. But it is very early to say what will happen, given that oil in Norway was discovered only 45 years ago. After all, Norway might have a large oil and gas production, but her reserves are peanuts when compared to the Arab, Iranians and Russian ones. You can also see that Norway does not do very bad in terms of economic freedom. Norway comes 32nd in the world ranking of economic freedom.

Picture 2 Index of Economic Freedom





Something else that worries me about Sanders rise, is how it relates to Israel. The Arab Spring, the improvement in the US-Iran relations, and the Turkish-Israeli hostility, have created great dangers for Israel’s security. Some analysts believe that Israel will not survive the Arab Spring. See for example “Op-Ed: New Study: 'Preparing for a Post Israel Middle East”, September 2012.

The United States have reduced their army in the Middle East, and the US-Iran rapprochement forced the Russians to bring to Syria their most modern military equipment in terms of radars, aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles. Among other things the Russians want to make sure that after the abolition of economic sanctions against Iran, Iran will not try to construct the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline without Gazprom. Russia might actually decide to block Iran in Syria.

But the huge Russian presence in Syria forces Israel to cooperate with Russia, so that Russia does not intervene when Israel attacks Iranian arm cargoes to South Lebanon (Hezbollah) and the Golan Heights at the Syrian-Israeli borders. Remember that both Hezbollah and Iran have as an official policy the annihilation of Israel. But if the Israelis cooperate with the Russians, they will not be as useful as they used to be for the United States. The fact that the Israeli-Russian cooperation is to a large extent a by-product of the American foreign policy does not matter. It is not the causes but the outcome that matters.

At the following Yahoo article you can read that the CIA considers the Israelis as the number one threat for espionage. See Yahoo “US sees Israel, tight Mideast ally, as spy threat”, July 2012.

It is not uncommon for secret agencies of allied countries to spy on each other. But for the United States it is very different when Israel is cooperating cooperate with Russia, because American secrets could end up to Russia, at least theoretically speaking. And I will say once more that one cannot use the argument that it was the American foreign policy that led to the Israeli-Russian cooperation, because it is the outcome that matters. And the outcome is that Israel and Russia are cooperating against Turkey, a common enemy, while the United States are cooperating with Turkey against Russia. Even though the Turkish-American relations are simply a shadow of what they used to be in the past. And it is again the Turks who attacked Israel and destroyed the Turkish-Israeli alliance, but again it is the outcome that matters.

Israel’s cooperation with Russia makes Israel less useful for the United States, and that’s a big problem because it is only the United States that can keep Israel alive. Moreover Israel is a thorn in the normalization of the US-Iranian relations. The war against Israel has been for Iran a great advantage in its effort to counterbalance the influence of the Turks and the Saudis in the Muslim World. The Iranians are Shiite (Shia) Muslims, and Shia Muslims are only 15-20% of the Muslim population, while the Turks and the Saudis are Sunni Muslims, and 80-85% of the Muslim population are Sunni Muslims.

Israel was a great advantage in Iran’s effort for influence in the Muslim World, given that Turkey and Israel were until recently allies, and given that Saudi Arabia could not attack Israel as forcefully as Iran could, since Saudi Arabia was an American ally. Now Saudi Arabia and Israel are cooperating against Iran.

I believe that the United States will never want to destroy Israel, which is the only democracy of the Middle East. However the question is whether the United States will be willing to carry the cost of keeping Israel alive. The Democrats believe more in the US-Iranian rapprochement and care less about Israel. After all it is the Obama policy that jeopardized Israel’s security, even though I believe it was done unintentionally. I do not mean that Obama did that to destroy Israel. He is just very tolerant towards Islamists and he does not care too much about Israel. The Republicans are less tolerant towards Islamists and care more about Israel. At least that’s the rule.

Therefore the Democrats, even though unintentionally, are responsible for the great threats that Israel is facing today. If some circles within the democrats expect, or even wish, that Israel falls, they would see favorably a Jewish candidate, who is also anti-Israel. If Israel falls, and the Turks, the Arabs and the Iranians invade Israel there will be a second Holocaust, only 70 years after the first one. The Americans and the Europeans would not want to be held accountable for a second Holocaust. Therefore Israel’s fall would seem much better for the American Democrats, if a Jew was their leader, or even the President of the United States.

This might again sound like a conspiracy theory but it is not. I am only saying that some circles within the Democrats might seem a Jewish candidacy as an insurance against a second Holocaust. Moreover, for the pure anti-Israel ones, an anti-Israel Jewish president would be a great weapon, because it would be a disaster for Israel. Imagine what would happen if Noam Chomsky was the American president. His constant attacks to Israel would convince everybody that Israel is doing something wrong. How else could people who do not follow politics explain the attacks on Israel by a Jewish American President? Most people have no idea about socialism, Islamism, oil ect.

At the following map you can see the problems associated with Israel’s security. At Southern Lebanon Israel is facing Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran and Russia, at the South Israel is facing Hamas, which is supported by Iran, Turkey and Qatar. At the east i.e. the West Bank and Jordan, Israel might soon have to face ISIS, because hundreds of thousands of immigrants have infiltrated in Jordan, and ISIS is now very strong in Jordan and the West Bank. At the Golan Heights Israel is facing ISIS and Iran, which are fighting each other about who is going to better position itself. Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS and Iran, all are openly asking for the annihilation of Israel.

Map 2 Israel



Therefore there is a great economic and diplomatic for the United States, if they want to keep Israel alive. And at the other side of the scale is Israel’s usefulness to the United States, and the ethics of saving the only Jewish state in the world. But Israel’s cooperation with Russia, and the US-Iranian normalization, reduces Israel’s usefulness. Therefore it is mostly the ethics of saving the Jewish state at the other side of the scale, and that’s not good for Israel, because international relations are not based on ethics, at least not for most of their part. Therefore the United States might say that they will offer Israel some limited financial and military aid, and after that Israel should do what it can to survive. There is a place for Bernie Sanders in such a scenario.

To make a long story short, Bernie Sanders might be useful for the American political elite that wants a larger share of the oil and gas production, but also for Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, i.e. the countries that will benefit from Sanders heavy taxes on American energy companies. At the same time Sanders could be convenient to the Democrats in case Israel falls, because it would be much harder to accuse the Democrats for jeopardizing Israel’s security while they are having a Jewish leader. Who will blame the Democrats, if they have elected a Jew as their leader? On the other hand the Democrats might be simply using Sanders to threaten Israel, both for its disrespect to Obama, and also for its cooperation with Russia.

Sanders might be convenient for many different reasons at the same time, and that has nothing to do with conspiracy theories. It is just politics. After all Sanders might not even be elected, and I hope he is not. American Jews had a contribution in making America great. It is a disgrace that it is a Jew who is trying to steal America from its people, simply by using cheap rhetoric and promising everything to everybody. It is not a coincidence that Sander’s most fanatic supporters are students. Many of us have been students, and we all know how students think. Actually we all know how students don’t think. Most of them don’t even know that it was capitalism that made American great.

And if Sanders is elected, and he hurts the American economy with his socialist policies, he will be used by the socialists, the Arabs and the Iranians as a great example of a Jewish conspiracy. They will say that he caused financial pain on the US not because he was a socialist, but because he was a Jew. People who do not live in socialist or Islamist countries have no idea about how propaganda works. But we do. See also “The True Causes of Greek Anti-Semitism”.

Articles


“Islamic State Lured a Son of Jordan’s Elite”, December 2015

“Al Jazeera to Shut Down American News Channel”, January 2016

“The case against Al Jazeera America”, January 2013

“Ranking the media from liberal to conservative, based on their audiences”, February 2016