Iakovos Alhadeff: Pakistan - Osama bin Laden

According to the Pakistani Prime Minister, the Pakistan-China alliance is higher than the mountains and deeper than the seas. See Stratfor article. I guess he is referring to the 46 billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is promoted by

China

(New Silk Roads). Actually the two countries have been allies for decades, and they jointly fought the Soviets in Afghanistan, and also their common rival

India

As you can read at the following Stratfor article, the construction of this economic corridor faces various problems, and one of them is that is heavily based on the western Pakistani province of Balochistan. The Baloch people are a Sunni Muslim tribe, and 7 out of 9 million of them live in

Pakistan

Image 1 Baloch People

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baloch_people

Pakistan

was a part of India, and when it was separated from

India

it became one country, in order for the Muslims of India to have power. But now the Baloch people believe they are not equally treated by the other Muslim tribes of

Pakistan

, and they claim that religion should not be placed before national characteristics, and many of them ask for a country of their own.

At the following map, from a Balochist site, you can see a map of a Balochistan, as it is envisioned by the Baloch people. The Baloch people have been traditionally living in what is today Pakistan, Iran and

Afghanistan

, and the map includes some parts of all these three countries.

Map 1 Balochistan

https://balochliberationmovement.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/map4.jpg

The Pakistani port of Gwadar is located at Balochistan, and China is supposed to use the port for commercial purposes, but also as a naval base, in order to become a two Ocean power and encircle

India

Map 2

Pakistan

http://www.mapsofworld.com/pakistan/maps/pakistan-political-map.jpg

For India, the China-Pakistan Economic and Military corridor is a real headache, because it will undo India’s geographic advantage over China for the trade with Europe and Africa, and it will give China the chance to encircle

India

. That’s why India is supporting the aspirations of the Baloch people in Pakistan, in the same way she is supporting the Tibetan people in

China

India

also has a motive to become an American ally, since India cannot expect much help from her traditional ally Russia, because Russia and China have formed an alliance against the

United States

. The United States are facing China in the South China Sea, because China wants to make it a Chinese lake, and a huge part of the world trade passes through the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea.

As you can read at the following Huffington Post article, in March 2016, the Pakistanis arrested in Balochistan an ex officer of the Indian Navy, and they claim that he was there to help the Baloch people find arms.

India

denied the accusations, even though she admitted that the man was indeed an ex Indian officer. But what the Pakistanis say sounds plausible. See Huffington Post “Tensions Mount Between India and

Pakistan

Over Balochistan”, March 2016.

In the same Huffington Post article you will read that Pakistan asked for

Iran

’s cooperation on the Iranian-Pakistani borders, in order to take care of the Baloch issue, since both countries have Baloch populations at their borders. But Iran did not agree to cooperate with

Pakistan

on the Baloch issue, even though the Iranians treat their Baloch population much worst than the Pakistanis treat theirs, as you can read at the article.

The reason Iran does not want to cooperate with Pakistan against the Baloch people of Pakistan is that it Iran does not want to alienate India, and that could happen if the Iranians and the Pakistanis start coopering against the Baloch people of Pakistan. India is the second largest importer of Iranian oil, second only to China, and Iran cannot afford to lose

India

to the Arabs.

Image 2 Iranian Oil Exports

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/main/images/Iran-Oil-Exports-071615_0.jpg

Moreover the Indians have included

Iran

in the Indian Silk Roads i.e. the North South Transport Corridor. The North South Transport Corridor will connect Bombay (India) with Chabahar (Iran), and from there the Indian merchandizes will reach Europe through Azerbaijan and

Russia

Map 3 North South Transport Corridor

http://financialtribune.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/field/image/07%20INSTC%20449-ab.jpg?itok=WFV1LGNK&c=5591aebda12dbd507d5a2fc5e22ee93a

The Iranians and the Indians are also promoting the Iran-Oman-India natural gas pipeline, which will bypass Pakistan, one of

India

’s greatest rivals.

Map 4

The Iranians obviously would be very happy to see that the issue of the Baloch people is “settled”, but India is a great customer and they do not want to upset

India

by getting involved in the Pakistani-Indian rivalry. After all Iran and Pakistan now have some common economic interests, but in the past they have been bitter rivals, because

Pakistan

was a major Arab ally. Now the Pakistanis are trying to become somewhat neutral in the Iranian-Saudi rivalry, because they have significant economic interests with both the Arabs and the Iranians.

I said that the Indians are trying to cause problems in Iran and China, and I have to say that the Iranians and the Chinese are doing the same thing, and they have supported many terrorist attacks against

India

. Pakistan is the specialist when it comes to terroism, and Pakistan can use the 180 million Muslim people of

India

to that end.

Pakistan

has great influence in Islamic terrorism.

The India-US alliance has alienated Pakistan and

United States

. The United States have already accused the Pakistanis for carrying out attacks against CIA agents. See “Declassified

U.S.

document suggests Pakistani link to attack on CIA agents”, April 2016.

The United States are also thinking to cancel the annual military aid they offer to

Pakistan

, which is approximately 1 billion dollars per year. The Pakistanis are threatening the

United States

they will buy Russian or Chinese aircrafts instead of American ones. I guess they also mean they will support more terrorist attacks against the

United States

if the Americans stop giving them the 1 billion dollars each year. See Financial Times “

Pakistan

threatens to buy Russian or Chinese jets in spat with US”, May 2016.

For the American military aid see the following map.

Map 5 American Aid

http://howmuch.net/articles/countries-scaled-to-the-economic-aid-they-receive-from-us

Also note that Osama bin Laden, the number 1 man of Al Qaeda, was hiding at

Pakistan

when the US navy seals killed him. After the bin Laden assassination

Pakistan

imprisoned a Pakistani doctor who supposedly helped the Americans trace bin Laden. See Financial Times “Bin Laden case doctor linked to militant”, May 2012.

Moreover, the CIA head in Pakistan, was poisoned after his success with bin Laden, and he had to urgently quit

Pakistan

. According to the Americans it was the Pakistani secret services that poisoned him. See Washington Post “After presiding over bin Laden raid, CIA chief in

Pakistan

came home suspecting he was poisoned by ISI”, May 2016.

Map 6 Ethnic Groups of

Pakistan

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/30/Pakistan_ethnic_map.svg/2050px-Pakistan_ethnic_map.svg.png

Articles

“The $46 Billion Tie That Binds China and

Pakistan

”, May 2016

7^th Paragraph

While CPEC has been touted as a "game-changer" for Pakistan, Islamabad will need to overcome several problems standing in the way of its implementation. The first is regionalism. Rivalries among Pakistan's provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Sindh and Balochistan — each with its own strong cultural identities — have long stood in the way of forging an overarching national identity. In particular, Balochistan, the country's least-populous province, has long accused Punjab, the wealthiest and most populous province, of marginalizing its people. One grievance Balochis hold is that Punjabis expropriated the operations of the Gwadar port, which is being expanded under the CPEC, and delegated the port authority's administration, cutting Balochis out of the equation. (In November 2015, a Chinese firm signed a 43-year lease for the rights to operate the port.)

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/46-billion-tie-binds-china-and-pakistan?utm_source=paidlist-a&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=*|DATE:|*&utm_content=Daily+Intelligence+Brief%3A+May+6%2C+2016

“Tensions Mount Between India and

Pakistan

Over Balochistan”, March 2016

1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd Paragraphs

On March 24th, the Pakistani security officials, backed by the civilian authorities, said they had arrested an Indian national somewhere in Balochistan and now they describe it as the “evidence” of Indian involvement in the restive province. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has also confirmed that Mr. Kulbhushan yadhav, a former Navy officer, has been arrested. While Islamabad says Mr. Yadhav worked for the Indian intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), on a high position, New Delhi has denied his affiliation with its premier intelligence agency.

Τhe circumstances surrounding the arrest of the Indian national are still elusive. Nobody knows how and where he was arrested and who arrested him. Likewise, the Pakistanis have leveled all kinds of allegations on him soon after the news about his arrest broke out. They say he was involved in providing training and weapons to the Baloch insurgents and engaged in promoting unrest in Karachi. One wonders how much time it took the Pakistani officials to extract so much information from Mr. Yadhav when they are saying that he has been moved to Islamabad for further investigation. Regardless the authenticity of the Pakistani charges, the arrest of Mr. Yadhav will significantly help Islamabad in embarrassing India and discrediting the Baloch nationalists for what they bill as a homegrown liberation movement.

For the past several years, Pakistan has been accusing India of interfering in Balochistan, but it never brought in public any evidence to substantiate its claims. The alleged Indian involvement in Balochistan has become an integral part of the talking points the Pakistani officials use whenever they meet with the Indian officials. The meeting between former prime ministers Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani at Sharm-el-Sheikh in Egypt in 2009 was the first occasion when Balochistan was mentioned at a high level. Afterward, the Pakistani officials also provided dossiers to the United Nations — which were not made public — in October 2015 to prove the Indian hand in fomenting trouble inside Pakistan. The Indians, on the other hand, say they have no interest in destabilizing Pakistan.

6^th Paragraph

This incident coincided with the first visit to Islamabad of Iran’s Hassan Rouhani since becoming the President. Iran has suddenly become an active player in the region after the lifting of the sanctions because of the successful deal with the P5+1 nations. Tensions between Tehran and Riyadh have also skyrocketed in the recent months because of differences on Syria and Yemen. The Pakistani officials have reportedly mentioned Mr. Jadhav’s case with the visiting Iranian leader and sought Iran’s cooperation on border security. (The Iranian leader denied discussing the matter with the Pakistanis). The Iranians, on their part, have even a worse record than the Pakistanis when it comes to treating the Baloch people. For instance, last month Shahindokht Molaverdi, Iran’s vice president for women and family affairs,conceded that “we have a village in Sistan and Baluchestan (province) where every single man has been executed.”