The Balkanization of Western Europe

Catalonia is a Spanish province, but the Catalans do not consider themselves Spanish, and they want Catalonia to be independent. Catalonia is autonomous and also has its own parliament. On September 27th 2015 the pro-independence coalition won the Catalonian elections, as you can read at the following Guardian article. “Catalan elections: secessionists claim victory – as it happened”, September 2015.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/sep/27/catalonia-goes-to-the-polls-live

Catalonia is one of Spain’s richest and most industrialized regions, as you can read at the following BBC article, titled “Catalonia profile”, January 2015.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20345071

80% of the Catalans believe that Catalonia pays too many taxes to support Spain, and they also believe that the investments of the central Spanish government to Catalonia are very small when compared to Catalonia’s tax burden and contribution to the Spanish GDP.

See “Catalonia's tax burden: If you put up with it, they keep taking your money”, November 2012,

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/20/catalonia-tax-burden-independence

The discussion between the Spanish and the Catalans resembles the discussion between the northern Europeans and the southern Europeans, with the Catalans accusing the rest of Spain for not trying enough, and the rest of Spain accusing the Catalans for a lack of solidarity. The Catalans are not the only ones to claim independence in the European Union. There is the issue of Scotland in Great Britain, of Flanders in Belgium, of the Basque Country in Spain and of Venice in Italy. See the following maps.

Map 1 (rough) Catalonia

Map 2 The Basque Country

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Basque_Country_Location_Map.svg/300px-Basque_Country_Location_Map.svg.png

Map 3 Flanders

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanders#/media/File:Flemish_Community_in_Belgium_and_Europe.svg

Map 4 Scotland (Great Britain)

http://blog.mapsofworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/uk-map-if-scotland-referendum-passed-in-2014.jpg

Map 5 Venice (Italy)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venetian_independence_referendum,_2014#/media/File:Veneto_in_Italy.svg

The European Union and NATO see with great anxiety all these separatists movements, because they could destabilize and Balkanize Western Europe. For Russia on the other hand all these separatist movements are a gift from heaven. The Basque, the Catalan and the Venice independence would destabilize Northern Spain and Northern Italy and would make it harder for the Algerian and Libyan natural gas and oil to travel to Europe and compete with the Russian state owned giants Gazprom and Rosneft. The Nigerian natural gas can also travel to Europe through Algeria, Spain and Italy if the Trans-Saharan pipeline manages to pass from the Sunni Islamist terrorists organization of Boko Haram.

Map 6 Catalonia, Basque Country and Venice (rough map)

  Actually Russia and Spain have a long rivalry that goes back to the 1930s and the Spanish civil war, when Hitler and Mussolini were supporting General Franco’s nationalist socialists and Stalin was supporting the Spanish communists. The nationalists finally won the war in 1939. After the end of the Second World War, Spain and Russia had very problematic relations. In the 1960s the Russian-Spanish relations were improved, and in 1977 Spain and Russia established full diplomatic relations. However in 1982 Spain joined NATO and relations between the two countries deteriorated again. The Spaniards were accusing the Soviets of supporting ETA, the Basque terrorist organization which stands for Basque independence, as you can read at the following New York Times article, titled “Premier says foreign states foment terror in spain”, May 1981.

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He said others ''want deceitfully to prevent our people from reaching the objectives of a peaceful and modern life, crowned with liberties, in the place that corresponds to us as a free nation.''

A high Government official said later that the Prime Minister was referring to ''the Soviet Union and its satellites,'' which the official said included Cuba, Libya and Algeria.

For some time, Spanish politicians and others have speculated that the Soviet Union might be assisting the Basque terrorist organization E.T.A., hoping to precipitate a military coup that would prevent Spain from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But Mr. Calvo Sotelo was the first to make the accusation, however veiled, in public. 2 Soviet Aides Expelled

Since Mr. Calvo Sotelo took office - the formal vote installing him was interrupted Feb. 23 by an aborted military coup - relations with the Soviet Union have markedly cooled. Two high-ranking Soviet officials have been expelled, and 20 other Soviet citizens have been told that their residence permits will not be renewed. The Government has also taken measures to reduce the Soviet fishing fleet near the Canary Islands.

A central feature of Mr. Calvo Sotelo's program has been a commitment to bring Spain into NATO, a process he hopes to start this year by a vote in Parliament.

http://www.nytimes.com/1981/05/09/world/premier-says-foreign-states-foment-terror-in-spain.html

However there was something uniting Spain and the Soviets, and that was the conflict between the Spaniards and the English over Gibraltar. Gibraltar is of great strategic importance for controlling the straits connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

Map 7 Gibraltar

Gibraltar has been under English control since 1713, but the Spanish want to regain its control, as you can read at the following Financial Times article, titled “UK accuses Spain of ‘clear violation’ of Gibraltar’s sovereignty”, Augusts 2015.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4b2138ce-3eda-11e5-9abe-5b335da3a90e.html#axzz3n1Z32U3V

The conflict between Spain and England over Gibraltar was the main argument of the Spanish left which wanted Spain aligned with the Soviets outside NATO. However in 1982 Spain joined NATO under the leadership of the center-right Spanish Prime Minister Leopoldo Sotelo. One of the main arguments for joining NATO was that it would help Spain to join the European Union. And indeed in 1986 Spain joined the European Union too.

I have mentioned in the past that Spain wants to provide Europe with an alternative to the Russian natural gas. Spain has the largest LNG facilities in Europe as you can read at the following Bloomberg article, titled “Gas Carousel Making Spain Europe’s Biggest LNG Exporter”, April 2014.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-10/gas-carousel-making-spain-europe-s-biggest-lng-exporter

Spain is also connected to Algeria with the Maghreb and Medgaz pipelines, and can be connected to Nigeria if the Trans-Saharan pipeline is constructed at some point (Nigiera-Niger-Algeria-Spain + Italy).

Map 8 Spain-Algeria-Natural Gas

However Spain is not yet connected with the rest of Europe with pipeline networks, but that can change if the European Union decides to finance such pipeline networks. As you can read at the following Euractiv article, titled “Spanish MIDCAT pipeline to replace 10% of Russian gas imports”, January 2015, at the moment there is only one pipeline connecting Spain and France, the Larrau pipeline, which can only transfer 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. In the same article you will read that Spain expects from the European Union to finance the MIDCAT pipeline, which will connect Spain and France and will reduce Russian imports to the EU by 10%.

“Spanish MIDCAT pipeline to replace 10% of Russian gas imports”, January 2015.

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Spain's sophisticated gas infrastructure could help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian supplies once projects to pump gas across the Pyrenees become a reality, the head of a Spanish gas association said yesterday (27 March).

Europe's most highly diversified gas importer has vast untapped import capacity which it could use to route gas into France and beyond. But underdeveloped pipeline links with other countries have effectively made Spain a gas island.

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Spain, meanwhile, does not receive any of its natural gas from Russia and was entirely shielded from the EU gas crises of 2006 and 2009 when rows over unpaid bills between Kyiv and Moscow led to the disruption of gas exports to western Europe.

Strategically positioned on the Mediterranean, about half of its gas comes from Algeria and the remainder from ten different countries around the world, mainly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which is shipped on tankers.

Spain spent billions of euros on its gas infrastructure during an economic boom. With seven LNG regasification plants, it has more capacity to turn liquefied natural gas back into gas than any other European country.

Now it is lobbying the EU to forge ahead with plans for a new pipeline, called MIDCAT, to transport gas into Europe.

MIDCAT, which is currently on the European Commission's list of strategically important projects, would put Spain's interconnection capacity with France at 14 billion cubic metres a year (bcm/y). The 190-km pipeline is planned to run along the Mediterranean coast.

"With this pipeline Spain could replace 10% of what Europe currently receives from Russia," Peris of Sedigas said.

Right now there is only one gas pipeline between Spain and France, called Larrau, which can transport 5.2 billion cubic metres (bcm/y), a fraction of the 462 bcm of gas consumed by the EU last year.

A new pipeline called Biriatou, running from Spain's Basque Country into France, could add another 2 bcm/y of interconnection capacity when it is completed in 2015, Peris said.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/spanish-midcat-pipeline-replace-10-russian-gas-imports-301205

As you can read at the following Financial Times article, titled “France, Spain and Portugal look to unlock Algeria gas exports”, June 2015, France, Spain and Portugal are promoting a plan which will bring the Algerian gas to Europe through the Pyrenees Mountains. The Pyrenees Mountains are the natural border between France and Spain.

Map 9 Pyrenees Mountains

http://media.web.britannica.com/eb-media/22/89922-004-015A28C3.gif

 Map 10 Algerian Pipelines to Europe

Source: FT

“France, Spain and Portugal look to unlock Algeria gas exports”, June 2015.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/056e89b0-19b1-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.html#axzz3n1Z32U3V

I hope that it is by now obvious how useful it would be for Russia, Turkey and Iran if there were disputes in northern Italy and Spain. These disputes would make much harder the transfer of Algerian and Nigerian gas to Europe.

Map 11 The Basque Country, Catalonia and Venice

Spain is a NATO member, and if the Basques and the Catalonians were to gain their independence, problems would probably arise between them and the Spanish government. Maybe the Basques and the Catalans would have to turn to Russia for help since Spain is a NATO member. For the Basques of ETA that would not be a tough decision because they are communists. That’s why the Russians have so much enthusiasm over the Basque and Catalan issues, even though they try not to show it in order not to spoil their relations with Spain. Russia and Spain have descent relations even though they have somewhat antagonistic interests.

At the north of Spain, there is the issue of Flanders in Belgium. Most Belgians at the south of the country are of French origin, and most Belgians at the north of the country are of Dutch and German origin. If the Flemish people decide to go for independence problems between France and Germany could arise, and that would push Germany closer to Russia.

For Scotland the situation is almost the same. Since the 1970, when oil and natural gas was discovered at the North Sea, the Scottish people started asking for their independence.  But the prices of oil and gas exhibit significant fluctuations and the Scottish people are not sure whether an independent Scotland will be able to finance her public spending. That’s why the Scottish people vote against Scottish independence as you can read at the following BBC article titled “Scottish referendum: Scotland votes No to independence”, September 2014. However if oil and gas become scarcer, and prices rise, for example due to a new war in the Persian Gulf, the Scottish people might come back with a new referendum for independence.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29270441

See also “The Oil and Natural Gas of the North Sea : The Case for Scottish Independence”

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/09/26/the-oil-and-natural-gas-of-the-north-sea-the-case-for-scottish-independence/

The Arctic Ocean is very rich in oil and natural gas, and USA (Alaska), Norway, Denmark (Greenland), Canada and Russia, have conflicting claims over these oil and gas reserves. With gray you can see the oil and natural gas reserves of the Arctic region.

Map 12 Oil and Gas Reserves of the Arctic Ocean

The United States, Canada, Denmark and Norway, are all NATO members, and even though they have some internal disagreements they are united against Russia. If Scotland becomes an independent state and has disputes with England, Scotland might have a motive to turn to Russia, since England is a NATO member. Something like that would greatly destabilize NATO in the Arctic region.

 Mar 13 Arctic Ocean and North Pole

At the following Guardian article, titled “Russian ambassadors: next we'll take Catalonia, Venice, Scotland and Alaska”, April 2014, you can read that a conversation between the Russian ambassadors of Eritrea and Zimbabwe was recorded. In this conversation the two Russian diplomats were saying that Russia must take Crimea, Catalonia, Scotland, Venice and Alaska. The conversation does not really matter because the two ambassadors were just kidding, but it shows what the Russian interests are.

 “Russian ambassadors: next we'll take Catalonia, Venice, Scotland and Alaska”, April 2014.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/04/russian-ambassadors-catalonia-venice-scotland-alaska-annex-crimea

The European Union is worried with the possibility of a balkanization of Europe, and has clearly said to Scotland and Catalonia that if they become independent states they will have to wait in the queue in order to join the European Union. See the following Euractiv article, titled “Brussels says an independent Catalonia would need to leave EU”, September 2013.

http://www.euractiv.com/video/brussels-says-independent-catalonia-would-need-leave-eu-307234

Moreover as you can read at the following article of the Independent, titled “Catalan independence: Voters head to polls in 'de facto referendum' on seceding from Spain”, September 2015, Barack Obama and the United States are very devout supporters of Spanish unity. The article also mentions that the British Prime Minister David Cameron said that Catalonia will have to wait in the queue if she becomes an independent state.

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The government of Spain and a host of political leaders across Europe have said that an independent Catalonia will have no automatic right to join the European Union or other institutions. Last week, Barack Obama threw his weight behind Spanish unity.

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At the heart of the issue is any future Catalan state’s membership of the European Union, which Mr Mas and his allies say is automatic. Mr Rajoy has moved to scotch this idea and has persuaded other European leaders, including David Cameron, to say that Catalonia would be forced to “take its place at the back of the queue”, of EU accession countries. Speaking to reporters last week Mr Rajoy said that Catalans would “lose the rights they have as Europeans and Spaniards” if Catalonia became an independent state.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalan-independence-voters-head-to-polls-in-de-facto-referendum-on-seceding-from-spain-10513213.html

Therefore it seems that the Scottish, the Catalonian, the Basque and the Flemish independence could significantly destabilize Western Europe, which for the moment is Europe’s safest part. For Russia on the other hand this destabilization could be a great gift as I explained.

I must also mention that the Russians have tried to purchase a stake in the Spanish energy giant Repsol, as you can read at the following article from the Russian state owned Sputnik, titled “Gazprom looks at buying 20% in Spain's Repsol”, November 2008.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20081112/118273458.html

In the past the Russians also tried to purchase Sonatrach, the Algerian state owned energy giant. See “Gazprom VS NATO : The War for Europe”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/gazprom-vs-nato-the-war-for-europe/

With all the above I do not mean to say that Russia and Spain are in some kind of war as it is the case with Russia and Turkey. Russia and Spain have conflicting economic interests. Actually when the socialists were in power in Spain, the Spaniards and the Russians made some energy deals as you can read at the following Reuters article, titled “Russia, Spain sign energy deal, smoothing investments”, March 2009. Socialists do not have many concerns about national interests and they are always easy prey for the Russians.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2009/03/03/gazprom-repsol-idUKL357888920090303

The Geopolitics of the Dutch Natural Gas Fields

The Groningen field is a Dutch natural gas field, and it is Europe’s largest gas field.

Picture 1

http://www.timera-energy.com/content/uploads/2013/05/field-map.jpg

There are larger Russian gas fields, but they are located in West Siberia and not in Russia’s European part, and therefore they are Asian gas fields. The South Pars/ North Fields is the king of the gas fields, located in the Persian Gulf. The South Pars/North Fields belongs to Qatar (2/3) and Iran (1/3). At the following Wikipedia table you can see the world’s ten largest gas fields.

Picture 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_gas_fields

The table is outdated though, and the second largest gas field in the world is the field of Galkynysh in Turkmenistan, which in the table appears as the 6^th largest. You can read about it at the following BBC article titled “China's growing demand for Turkmenistan's gas”, November 2014.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30131418

As you can read at the following Reuters article, titled “Dutch government cuts Groningen gas field production”, June 2015, the Dutch government decided to reduce Groningen’s production, due to the earthquake activity that is associated with its exploitation. This is an old story but the Dutch governments never dared to stop exploiting Groningen. According to Reuters it will be difficult for the Netherlands, and for Europe too, to replace the natural gas quantity which will be lost due to Groningen’s reduced output.

“Dutch government cuts Groningen gas field production”, June 2015

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/23/netherlands-gas-groningen-idUSL8N0Z928L20150623

At the following article from the Russian state owned RT (Russia Today), titled “Dutch govt says sorry for ignoring danger over gas field earthquakes”, March 2015, you will read that the Russians accuse the Dutch for not taking the necessary measures in order to protect the Dutch citizens from the earthquakes caused by Groningen.

“Dutch govt says ‘sorry’ for ignoring danger over gas field earthquakes”, March 2015.

http://www.rt.com/news/236985-netherlands-gas-field-earthquakes/

The Groningen field is competing with Russia’s Gazprom in Northern Europe. The Russian gas already travels to the Netherlands through the Nord Stream and NEL pipelines (Russia-Baltic Sea-Germany-Netherlands). See picture 3.

Picture 3

Moreover the agreement for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was signed in September 2015, and which will double the Russian gas which will travel to Germany through the Baltic Sea from 55 to 110 billion cubic meters  is not irrelevant to the problems posed by the Groningen field.

England is also facing problems with her energy security too, because the British gas production of the North Sea is falling, and England has already become a net importer of gas. Norway and the Netherlands are facing falling productions too, and the British have turned to the Qataris for liquefied natural gas (LNG). However the Persian Gulf is a very insecure region and no one can assure the British that there will not be a war in the future, which will interrupt the flow of Qatari gas to Great Britain.

The Baltic Sea energy corridor is by far the safest energy corridor for Northern and Northwestern Europe. If however the leftist parties of the European South flood northern Europe with Muslim immigrants, as Mateo Renzi did in Italy in 2014 and Alexis Tsipras did in Greece in 2015, there will be a sharp rise of Islamism in Northern Europe, and the Russo-German pipeline networks will not be that safe anymore.

Neither it is an accident that Geremy Corbyn, the new president of the Labor Party in England, is an anti-American who believes that the American soldiers are similar to ISIS. Remember that many Russian oligarchs have their billions in the City of London, and they make massive investments in England, gaining political support. It is true of course that Jeremy Corbyn also loves the Islamists and asks for more Muslims immigrants in the UK. Qatar is another country that massively invests in the UK, and Qatar promotes Muslim immigrants in Europe. Finally remember that the Russians gave to the Royal Dutch Shell a 10% stake in the Nord Stream 2 project.

Picture 4

http://vungtauoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/northsea-vungtauoil.jpg

As you can read at the following Spectator article, a British magazine which was published almost two centuries ago, since the oil and natural gas fields of the North Sea were discovered in the 1970’s, the Scottish people started demanding Scotland’s independence. With red and green dots you can see the gas and oil fields.

Map 1

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/6937858/salmonds-treasure-map/

Map 2

http://vungtauoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/northsea-vungtauoil.jpg

Gazprom VS ENI : A New War in East Mediterranean Sea?

As you can read at the following BBC article, titled “Italy's Eni discovers huge gas field off Egyptian coast”, August 2015, ENI, the Italian energy giant discovered a huge natural gas field in the Egyptian waters in August 2015.

“Italy's Eni discovers huge gas field off Egyptian coast”, August 2015.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34102656

The Italian public is ENI’s largest shareholder, and the Russians had given ENI a 20% stake in the South Stream pipeline. Therefore the Russians had the Italian support against the EU anti-monopolistic regulation which threatens Russian interests in Europe. After the cancellation of the South Stream and the agreement for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline it seems that Italy and Russia will go separate ways. See “The Clouds Over the Russian-Italian Relations”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/09/17/the-clouds-over-the-russian-italian-relations/

In September 2015 Russia decided to significantly increase her military presence in Syria. See for example the following Time article, titled “Russia Has Added Dozens of Aircraft to Its Growing Military Presence in Syria”, September 2015.

http://time.com/4043955/russia-syria-latakia-28-aircraft-assad-isis/

Syria is very important for Russia because an Arab-Turkish pipeline could be constructed in order to send natural gas from the Persian Gulf to Europe through Turkey and Syria. However after the war broke out the construction of such a pipeline network was not possible, and therefore it is strange that Russia suddenly decided to increase her military presence in Syria in such a massive scale. The Russian reinforcements are more strange if it is taken into account that the Americans do not seem very interested in the removal from power of the Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad, who is also an Iranian and Russian ally. See for example “Kerry's remarks on Syria trouble Turkey”, September 2015

“Kerry's remarks on Syria trouble Turkey”, September 2015

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-usa-syria-ankara-angered-kerry-remarks.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=891335b2d9-September_23_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-891335b2d9-102393785

As you can read at the Al Monitor article, many members of parliament in the United States wonder whether Assad’s removal should be a priority for the United States, given that the Islamic State (ISIS) is causing so much trouble. Turkey’s influence over the Islamic State is not a secret. But why would the Americans want the Turks to have Syria under their control, given how aggressive Turkey has become in her energy policy? It would be much better for the Americans if there were two energy corridors instead of one i.e. the Caspian Sea-Turkey-Europe corridor and the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Mediterranean Sea-Europe one. If Turkey were to control Syria she would be able to blackmail the Americans and the European. See the following map.

Map 1

The more pipelines there are connecting the Middle East and the Caspian Sea to Europe the better it is for the Americans and the Europeans. Turkey is no longer the loyal American ally she used to be.

Therefore given that the Americans are not very interested in Assad fall, and there is no possibility, at least for the moment, of an Arab-Turkish pipeline, it is strange that Russia decide to increase her military presence in Syria in such a dramatic way. As you can read at the following Stratfor article, titled “Russia Uses Syria to Influence Other Powers”, Russia increases her military presence in Syria in order to put pressure on Israel and Turkey, and not to protect Assad.

https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/russia-uses-syria-influence-other-powers

I mentioned ENI’s recent discovery in Egypt. In addition to this discovery the Israelis agreed to sell natural gas to the Italian ENI and the Spanish Repsol from Tamar, which is their second largest gas field, holding more than 300 billion cubic meters of natural gas. See “Israel’s Agreement with the Italian ENI and the Spanish Repsol”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/09/22/israels-agreement-with-the-italian-eni-and-the-spanish-repsol/

Map 2 Israeli Gas Fields : Leviathan and Tamar

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/cyprus/2013-03-20/trouble-eastern-mediterranean-sea

As you can see at the following map, Egypt’s LNG facilities are located at the Nile Delta.

Map 3

https://www.eni.com/it_IT/attachments/investor-relations/presentazioni/2004/Damietta_PDFok.pdf

As you can read at the following Reuters article, titled “Damietta LNG plant files complaint against Egypt's EGAS –source”, April 2014, 80% of the LNG facility at the Egyptian port of Damietta belongs to ENI and Union Fenosa Gas (Repsol+La Caixa), and the rest 20% belongs to the Egyptian state-owned companies EGAS and EGPC.

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The Damietta LNG plant is 80 percent-owned by Union Fenosa Gas (UFG), a joint venture between Spain's Gas Natural and Italy's Eni. The remaining 20 percent is split evenly between state-owned companies EGAS and EGPC.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/24/egypt-gas-idUSL6N0DB30820130424

For the shareholder structure of Union Fenosa Gas see “Israel’s Agreement with the Italian ENI and the Spanish Repsol”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/09/22/israels-agreement-with-the-italian-eni-and-the-spanish-repsol/

For the Nile Delta see the following map.

Map 4

http://www.tageo.com/index-e-eg-v-00-d-m467239.htm

For Egypt’s LNG facilities see also Wikipedia

“Overview of Infrastructure in Egypt”

In Egypt there are two liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, Egyptian LNG and SEGAS, both of which are under the control of a consortium of national and international oil companies. The Egyptian LNG plant consists of two operating facilities located in Idku on the Mediterranean coastline, with a 3.6 million ton per year capacity each.[5] With the capability to accommodate the largest LNG vessels up to 160,000 cubic meters, the LNG port at Idku is the largest specialized LNG export facility in Egypt.[6] The SEGAS plant has a capacity of 5 million tons per year and is located in Damietta, further east of Idku and also on the Mediterranean.[7] There are plans to expand both terminals in the near future, depending on export policy changes.[8]

According the EIA country profile, around 70 percent of Egypt's natural gas is exported in the form of LNG, which amounted approximately 12.7 billion cubic meters in 2009. The In the same year, the United States was the largest recipient of Egyptian LNG, representing 35 percent of Egyptian LNG exports for the year and also 35 percent of U.S. LNG imports. Egyptian LNG export also went to Spain (32 percent) and France (13 percent) with smaller volumes travelling to Canada, Mexico, Asia and other European countries.[9]

http://wiki.openoil.net/index.php?title=Overview_of_Infrastructure_in_Egypt#LNG_Facilities

The Nile Delta with its LNG facilities is a threat for Turkey, Qatar and Iran, and it is vulnerable to terrorist attacks. See for example the following Breitbart article, titled “11 wounded in explosion in egypt's Νile Δelta”, October 2014.

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2014/10/17/11-wounded-in-explosion-in-egypt-s-nile-delta/

ENI’s growing presence in the East Mediterranean Sea is a big problem for Russia too. Russia is always trying to cause wars in the regions that threaten her energy policy. That’s what Russia did in Syria. In 2009 Russia asked the Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad to block the Qatar-Turkey-Europe pipeline, which was promoted by Turkey and Qatar, and in return Gazprom offered to construct the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, and Syria agreed. The Turks and the Arabs of the Gulf were infuriated and attacked Syria. War was the best outcome for Russia. For Russia the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline was not as bad as the Qatar-Syria one, but it was still pretty bad. It would still be competition for Russia in Europe. War was the optimal outcome for Russia.

Map 5 Iran-Iraq-Syria and Qatar-Turkey Pipelines

Russia used the same approach in the Turkish Kurdistan. Russia generously supported the Kurds of the PKK in Turkey, and a war between Turkey and the Kurds has almost broken out, which can block the Southern Energy Corridor.

Map 6 Kurdistan and Southern Energy Corridor

There is also a problem between the rich in oil and gas Kurds of Iraq and the poor Kurds of Turkey, because the Kurds of Iraq need Turkey in order to export their oil and gas. See also “Who is Responsible for the War”

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/21/who-is-responsible-for-the-war-and-the-immigrants/

Russia’s main export market is Europe, and the Russian energy policy is mainly about how to protect her oil and gas sales to Europe. Since Russia’s strategy is to cause war in the regions that threaten her energy policy i.e. her sales to Europe, we should assume that she will try to do exactly the same in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, a region posing a threat for Russian exports. Russia has three options in order to destabilize the region. The first one is Egypt, the second one is Cyprus, and the third one is Israel.

Map 7

Cyprus is a member of the European Union, but a traditional Russian ally. Egypt was an ally of the Soviet Union until the mid 70s, when it became an American ally. Recently Egypt has moved towards Russia again, because the United States accepted the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Turkey was behind the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the Americans need Turkey a lot more than they need Egypt. The Russians know that the Americans need Turkey a lot more than they need Egypt, and therefore Egypt will need Russia. Therefore the Russians do not want to cause problems in the Egyptian-Russian relations. After all there is already a lot of turmoil in Egypt, because Turkey, Qatar and Iran are supporting many terrorist attacks against Egypt from Libya and the Gaza Strip.

Israel on the other hand depends on the US for its survival. Israel and Russia have significantly improved their relations due to their cooperation against the Islamist militants supported by Turkey and Qatar. Israel also gave Gazprom exclusive rights over a part of its second largest gas field Tamar. See Wall Street Journal “Gazprom Signs Deal to Market Israel's Tamar LNG Project”, February 2013.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324338604578328231939157040

However the Russians know that Israel is dependent on US for its survival, and if Israel has to choose between Russia and the United States it would have to go for the United States. Therefore Israel might be the ideal geographical location for Russia to start a war. At the following Stratfor article, titled “Russia Uses Syria to Influence Other Powers”, September 2015, you can read that the reason Russia is increasing her military presence in Syria is because she wants to put pressure on Israel and Turkey.

https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/russia-uses-syria-influence-other-powers

At the following Business Insider article, titled “Hezbollah is joining a formal alliance with Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime”, September 2015, you can read that Russia is forming an official alliance with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

http://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-is-joining-a-formal-alliance-with-russia-iran-and-the-syrian-regime-2015-9?nr_email_referer=1&utm_content=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_campaign=BI%20Select%20%28Wednesday%20Friday%29%202015-09-23&utm_term=Business%20Insider%20Select

Hezbollah is Israel’s number one rival in Southern Lebanon, and it is a Shite Muslim organization supported by Iran. If Hezbollah is supported by Russia she will be a lot more confident and a lot more aggressive towards Israel. Until now, if Syria and Lebanon attempted to bring weapons of mass destruction near Israel, Israel would destroy them. But now the Russians will have advanced radars, anti-aircraft missiles and aircrafts in Syria, and if they support Hezbollah they will make life much harder for Israel, because there will be a high probability of a clash between Russian and Israeli forces.

What I am trying to say with all the above is that Israel might be the best location which can be used by Russia to destabilize the region, and also punish Israel for its agreement with ENI and Repsol.

Israel and ENI are not the only “lucky” ones to worry about the rising Russian presence in Syria. Turkey is another player the Russians are aiming at. In August 2015 Russia signed an agreement for Nord Stream 2, which will double the capacity of the Russo-German network from 55 to 110 billion cubic meters per year. Turkey wants to send natural gas to Europe in order to earn transit fees and receive discounts on energy prices, but also to increase her geopolitical importance. If the Russians are flooding Europe with Russian gas through Germany, that goal becomes much harder for Turkey. After the Russians made the Nord Stream 2 agreement the Turks announced they would freeze discussion over the Turk Stream pipeline. The Turk Stream pipeline is a Russo-Turkish pipeline which will send Russian natural gas to Europe through Turkey. Turkey of course prefers the Southern Energy Corridor (TANAP-TAP) which will provide Europe with an alternative for the Russian gas. The Turks have always made it clear that they are interested in the Turk Stream project as long as it does not pose a threat to the Southern Energy Corridor, and that’s something that really annoys the Russians.

In August and September 2015 some major events took place. The Kurds of the PKK, which are mainly supported by Russia, attacked the South Caucasus Pipeline (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey). The Islamic State (ISIS) carried out its first attack in the Russian province of Dagestan. The Russians signed the agreement for the Nord Stream 2. The Turks announced they are freezing discussions for the Turk Steam Pipeline. The Russians increased their military presence in Syria. Therefore the increased Russian presence in Syria has three targets i.e. ENI, Israel and Turkey.

Everything I say is a simple discussion of what is happening today, and it does not mean that any of it will come true. Russia might sort things out with ENI, Israel or Turkey. I do not know what I will happen tomorrow. I am only discussing what is happening today.