ISIS VS Al Qaeda Part 2

A very nice article from the Wall Street Journal, titled “Paris Attacks Suggest Shift in Islamic State’s Strategy”, November 2015. According to the article the Paris terrorist attacks of November 2015 might signal a turn of ISIS strategy. Until now ISIS was not targeting the West, but the Paris attacks might show that this is no longer the case. According to the Wall Street Journal there were some attacks on the West from ISIS sympathizers, but none of them was believed to be orchestrated directly by ISIS. However the Paris attacks were very sophisticated. See “Paris Attacks Suggest Shift in Islamic State’s Strategy”, November 2015.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/paris-attacks-reflect-new-dangers-for-the-west-1447517428?mod=fox_australian

I had already uploaded a document about ISIS and Al Qaeda, on August 2015. See “ISIS VS Al Qaeda”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/27/isis-vs-al-qaeda/

I was saying that Al Qaeda is mainly financed by Saudis, and it is not only anti-Shiite, but also anti-American and anti-Western. On the other hand, ISIS, at least until very recently, was only targeting Shiite Muslims and not the West. The main explanation is that ISIS is mainly supported by Turkey, while Al Qaeda is mainly supported from some parts of the Saudi elite. The Saudis, actually the Iranians too, are hurt by the American efforts to bring the oil and natural gas of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan) to the Indian Ocean i.e. Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline etc.

The Turks are not hurt by such efforts. They would of course prefer to see the oil and gas of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to flow to Turkey, and to Europe through Turkey, but they are not hurt to the degree that the Arabs and the Iranians are hurt. The Arabs and the Iranians sell their oil and gas mainly to Asia.

Turkey on the other hand is hurt by the Iranian and Russian efforts to block the Sunni Pipelines i.e. Turkish-Arab pipelines like the Qatar-Turkey one, and by the Iranian efforts to promote the Shiite pipelines i.e. Iran-Iraq-Syria.

Map Sunni-Shiite Pipelines

For the United States, Syria is much less important than she is to the Russians, the Iranians, the Arabs and the Turks. That’s why Donald Trump, a candidate for the Republican Party’s presidency, was saying that the US should not interfere in Syria and should let Russia bomb ISIS. See for example CNN’s “Trump: Let Putin fight ISIS in Syria”, September 2015.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/27/politics/donald-trump-isis-syria-russia-60-minutes/

For the US, Iraq and Afghanistan are a lot more important than Syria. The American military operations took place in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), and not in Syria. In Afghanistan the Sunni Islamists Taliban were blocking the oil and gas of Central Asia to flow to the Indian Ocean. They were of course training many terrorists against the US.

In Iraq, Saddam Hussein, a socialist Sunni Arab, was suppressing the Iraqi Shiite majority, and the Kurds of Northern Iraq, who are very rich in oil and natural gas, and they are natural American allies. Moreover, Saddam Hussein was funding many socialist terrorist organizations which were targeting the US, and he was as anti-American as it comes. Saddam Hussein did not want elections in Iraq, because elections would bring to power the Shiite Iraqi majority. Saddam was using socialism to downgrade religion and offset the advantage of the Shiite majority over the Sunni minority of Iraq. Under Saddam the Sunni minority was running the country, something that changed when he was gone.

The West could not buy Iraqi oil, and could not allow the big western companies to invest in Iraq, because Saddam would use the revenues to finance his army and support terrorist organizations. This problem was gone after Saddam was removed from power. Now the Iraqi oil flows to the international markets, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Donald Trump said that United States should not interfere with Syria, and let the Russians fight ISIS, but he said that the American army should stay in Iraq and fight ISIS in Iraq.

Therefore, for the Turks, until recently, the West was not a main problem. Actually the Turks were expecting their NATO allies to help them overturn Bashar al Assad in Syria and ask for elections. The majority of the Syrian population are Sunni Muslims and therefore the Turks and the Arabs would gain control in the case of free elections. There is of course the thorn of the Syrian Kurds in American-Turkish relations, because the Americans support the Kurds of Syria while the Turks are fighting them. But on the issue of Assad the Turks were expecting a lot more support than they finally got from their NATO allies.

I guess that the minimum that Russia will go for in Syria will be to keep the Syrian coasts under Alawite control. Alawite Muslims are Russian allies and are the majority at the Syrian coasts, as you can see at the following Wikipedia map. With light green you can see the region with Alawite majority at the Syrian costs, and with salmon you can see the regions with Sunni majority. The map is for Syria in 1976, but the situation has not changed much.

Map 1 Syria-Alawites

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/Syria_Ethno-religious_composition..jpg

Therefore the Russians would not accept a solution with elections, without a prior agreement about how the country would be run, because they know that this would bring Syria under Sunni control, and would put their Alawite allies on the side. Therefore if an agreement cannot be reached, the Russians would prefer the partition of Syria, in order for the Alawites to stay in power at the coasts of Syria. That way the Russians will control the exit of oil and gas to the Mediterranean Sea.

Therefore, at least initially, the Turks were not worrying about the West. On the contrary, Assad was a very close Russian and Iranian ally, and therefore the Americans, who are  a strong Turkish ally, and the French, who are a strong Saudi ally, were asking for Assad to step down in order for free elections to take place in Syria. Therefore for ISIS the West was useful, while for Al Qaeda it was an enemy.

For Al Qaeda the West was a problem. The Americans were trying to bring the oil and gas of Central Asia to the Indian Ocean. In addition, after Saddam Hussein’s attack to Kuwait in 1991, the Americans established American military bases in Saudi Arabia, and that infuriated some parts of the Saudi elite. The problem was becoming more intense, because the Americans were reducing their oil imports from the Persian Gulf, and with their military presence they were turning China towards Iran. But China is the client that both the Iranians and the Saudis are counting on for the future.

Moreover, the American military presence in Saudi Arabia was giving a great advantage to Iran, Saudi Arabia’s main rival. The Iranians could accuse the Saudis for being an ally of the “infidel” i.e. the unfaithful. Iranian officials call the United States “the Great Satan”, and the Saudis were collaborating with the “Great Satan”. Moreover, the Arab socialists i.e. Iraq, Syria, Libya etc could also accuse the Saudis for treason due to their alliance with the Americans.

These problems led to a series of terrorist attacks against the United States, with the attack on the Twin Towers in September 2001 being the deadliest and more important one. After the 9/11 attack, in 2002, the United States moved their military bases from Saudi Arabia to Qatar. Qatar was more than happy to accommodate the American bases, because these bases were enhancing Qatar’s security. Qatar is located between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and it feels pressure from both these countries. Qatar does not claim the leadership of the Islamist World, and can deal with disadvantages in the Qatari public opinion, because it is the country with the highest GDP per capita, and has only 2 million very happy citizens. The rest of the people in Qatar are foreigners who simply work there. For the attack on the Twin Towers and the American military bases see “USA, Russia & China in the Middle East : Alliances & Conflicts”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/01/12/usa-russia-china-in-the-middle-east-alliances-conflicts/

Therefore you can see how different the interests of ISIS and Al Qaeda are. Moreover there is the issue of oil, because ISIS sends cheap oil to Turkey, from the oilfields that have come under ISIS control in Syria and Iraq. Some of this oil is exported through Turkey’s port of Ceyhan in the Mediterranean Sea. I guess that the Saudis are not happy with that.  See “The Oilfields of the Islamic State”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/the-oil-fields-of-the-islamic-state/

In addition the Saudis do not accept Turkey as the leader of the Islamic World. As long as Turkey was under the control of the nationalist socialist supporters of Kemal Ataturk, they did not want religion to play a major role in Turkey’s politics. But that changed after the Islamists came to power in 2003. Turkey’s Islamists started trying to become the leader of the Islamic world, and Saudi Arabia was the leader until then. Becoming the leader would give Turkey a greater role in the oil and gas of the Middle East and North Africa. We saw that contrary to what happened with Saudi Arabia, Qatar was very happy to accept Erdogan as the Sultan of the Chaliphate. But Saudi Arabia is a much more important country than Qatar.

Turkey is also the country with the strongest army in the Muslim world. According to Business Insider Turkey has the 8^th strongest country in the world. See “The 35 Most Powerful Militaries In The World”, July 2014.

Picture The Strongest Armies in the World

http://www.businessinsider.com/35-most-powerful-militaries-in-the-world-2014-7

However it seems that gradually the West is becoming a headache for Turkey. There is the issue of oil and gas, but on top of that, Erdogan is transforming Turkey to fascist country, and both the EU and the US are very disappointed with him. Erdogan is closing media that criticize his party, and puts a lot of pressure on the political opposition. Of course Erdogan says that he does that because they are corrupted.

Therefore it seems that the West is constraining Turkey instead of helping her, and as a result ISIS gradually turns against the West. I guess that’s what the Wall Street Journal is trying to say with this article, even though she does not mention the oil and gas interests. However I must say that it is not only the Turks and the Qataris who support ISIS. In all Muslim countries there are ISIS supporters. For example in Nigeria, a country 50% Christian and 50% Muslim, the Sunni terrorist organization Boko Haram aligned itself with the Islamic State, and even changed its name to ISWAP (Islamic State of West African Province). Obviously the members of Boko Haram are not Turks or Qataris. They are Nigerians. But I mainly refer to Turkey, because she is the strongest Muslim country, and Qatar, because Qatar has plenty of liquidity and finances Islamist militants on the battlefields and European socialists in European parliaments.

The Qataris, and all the Arabs, are financing the European left, in order to send Muslim immigrants to Europe. This will give the Muslim world great leverage over European politics. If the Europeans do not buy their oil and gas, and if they dare to bomb their islamist militants, they will have to suffer attacks like the one suffered by France on Friday 13^th November 2015. It is no coincidence that ISIS attacked Stade de France too, where there was a game between France and Germany. The Jihadists wanted to send a message to Germany too. It is through Germany that the Russian gas enters Europe (Nord Stream 1).

Now, with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that Russia and Germany are promoting, they will double the Russian natural gas that enters Europe through Germany, from 55 to 110 billion cubic meters per year. Erdogan, together with the communist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras are sending to Germany hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants.

At the following two tables from the United Nations you can see how the influx of illegal immigrants was affected by the rise to power of the communist party of SYRIZA in Greece. SYRIZA won the Greek elections in January 25^th 2015. Three are the dates that really matter for the European immigration crisis. The first one is 2011, when the energy wars (Arab Spring) begin in North Africa and the Middle East. The second one is February 2014, when the leftist Mateo Renzi wins the Italian elections, and opens the Italian borders to illegal immigrants. The third and most important date is January 2015, when the communist Alexis Tsipras wins the Greek elections.

Tsipras, a communist and Islamist ally, completely reversed the immigration policies of Antonis Samaras, who was a patriot, and the influx of illegal immigrants that entered Greece jumped from 75.000 in 2014 to over 600.000 in 2015. And that was at the end of October 2015 and not at year end.. At the end of the year the figures will be even higher. All the problems that the European Union is experiencing with illegal immigration, which have almost led to closed European borders, are caused by the Greek Communists and Erdogan.

Picture 1

http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

Picture 2

http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

I must also say one more thing about France. France and Germany are famous for having problematic relations with Turkey. But France does not only have a problem with Jihadists in the Middle East. France did indeed bomb ISIS oil facilities a few days before the Paris attacks, and that definitely played a role. See for example Yahoo “French strike hits IS oil facility in Syria”, November 2015.

http://news.yahoo.com/french-strike-hits-oil-facility-syria-143954467.html

However North Africa is more important than the Middle East for France. France is getting her raw materials mainly from Africa i.e. Algeria, Libya, Niger, Nigeria etc. The French do want to support their Saudi allies in Syria and Iraq, but North Africa is more important for France. France has to fight against ISIS in Northern Africa too. France is fighting both Sunni and Shiite Jihadists in Africa. France has many problems with Iran too. But now I am talking about France and Turkey, and I mainly refer to Turkey because Turkey is the largest Sunni Islamist country. It is difficult for me to imagine that some ISIS members would have slaughtered the French if they knew that Turkey would really disapprove. Therefore what I am saying is not that Erdogan gave the order for the attack. I am only saying that the Paris attacks gives more leverage to Erdogan over Europe.

  

The Paris Terrorist Attacks (November 2015)

Many journalists, or common people, wonder how is it possible for all countries to be against ISIS (the Islamic State), and still ISIS being alive and kicking? These are very silly questions, and they make me very suspicious, at least when they come from professional journalists.

First of all not everybody is against ISIS. Turkey and Qatar are pro-ISIS, and Turkey has one of the strongest armies in the world, and Qatar is one of the richest countries in the world. Of course they would not openly admit that they support ISIS.  

Second, the United States is indeed against ISIS and it is bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq. However by bombing ISIS the United States is destroying its alliance with Turkey and Qatar, and we know how badly the US needs these two countries. Therefore the Americans are targeting ISIS but they also try not to destroy their alliance with Turkey. This alliance has already been hurt.

Third, Russia is also against ISIS, but she also hesitates to bomb ISIS, because Turkey is the second largest importer of Russian natural gas, with Germany being the largest. Russia is hoping to send her natural gas to Europe through Turkey and she needs Turkey. Moreover if Russia targets ISIS there will be retaliations from the Muslim population of Russia. We saw that when Russia sent her army in Syria ISIS hit two Russian airplanes with civilians. Finally Russia does not want to lose the Turkish support in Ukraine. If Russian-Turkish relations deteriorate, Turkey will stop being quite about Ukraine, and she will also use the issue of the Crimean Tatars against Russia. The Tatars are Crimean people of Turkic origin, they are repressed by Russia, and they ask Turkey for help.

Please note that it was after the crash of the two Russian airplanes that Russia dared to bomb Raqqa, which is the capital of ISIS. Before that Russia was mainly targeting the moderate Sunni Muslims who were against Assad, and were supported by US and its allies i.e. the Free Syria Army etc. See “Dozens killed after Russia strikes de facto ISIS capital in Syria”, November 2015

http://www.businessinsider.com/dozens-killed-after-russia-strikes-de-facto-isis-capital-in-syria-2015-11?nr_email_referer=1&utm_content=BISelect&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_campaign=BI%20Select%20%28Wednesday%20Friday%29%202015-11-06&utm_term=Business%20Insider%20Select

Map Raqqa Syria

If Russia, who is Turkey’s main rival during the last centuries, is hesitant and afraid about striking ISIS, you expect the US to target ISIS more forcefully, when the United States need Turkey even more than Russia needs Turkey?

Third, France is against ISIS, because France has very problematic relations with Turkey, and France has also become the main ally of Saudi Arabia, after the Saudi-American relations went sour. Therefore France wants to hit ISIS, and she did hit ISIS oil facilities on Sunday 8^th November 2015. Yesterday you saw the retaliations. If you think that you can target ISIS without consequences you are wrong. See “French strike hits IS oil facility in Syria”, November 2015.

http://news.yahoo.com/french-strike-hits-oil-facility-syria-143954467.html

Forth, Iran is against ISIS and it is already combating ISIS, and that’s why there is a war in Syria.

Fifth, many people confuse the air strikes with the ground operations. The Americans and the Russians can use their air force to bomb ISIS, but if they try to send troops in Syria and Iraq they face severe protests internally. On the other hand the Sunni and Shiite Islamists do not have to worry too much about their dead soldiers, at least as far as the public opinion is concerned. It is one thing to bomb from the air, and another to send troops on the ground. You saw the price the US had to pay in Afghanistan. The US and Russia might handle the financial cost of the operations, but they cannot handle the human cost. This is not the case for ISIS. ISIS has plenty of soldiers to spend.

Venezuela's Bankruptcy and the History of Oil Prices

Venezuela is about to go bankrupt, and I would like to bring to your attention the following Reuters article, titled “Venezuela's president says oil industry needs $88 price”, October 2015. Venezuela is the richest country in the world in terms of oil reserves, but she is a highly corrupted socialist country, and obviously that’s not enough to keep her afloat. According to Reuters Venezuela was trying to convince the other OPEC members to cut oil production in order to push oil prices at 88 dollars per barrel, from the current price level of 40 dollars. OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Venezuela did not convince her counterparts. The main problem is that Saudi Arabia is not willing to cut her production, because she wants to hurt Russia and Iran who count on oil exports for their revenues. The Turks and the Arabs are currently fighting a war against the Iranians and the Russians in Syria and Iraq, and the lower the oil prices the harder it is for the Iranians and the Russians to finance the Shiite Islamists of Syria and Iraq. Moreover Saudi Arabia is trying to drive out of the market the American companies that produce oil from shale rock, or from deep sea oil fields at a higher production costs.

According to some analysts it is the first time that it is not the sellers but the buyers who have the upper hand in the oil market. Obviously that’s good for the United States, China, the European Union and Japan, who are the main oil importers. It is not good for Russia, Iran, the Arabs, Norway, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Mexico and Canada, all of whom are major oil exporters.

There are of course more reasons that lead to low oil prices, and it is not only the increased Saudi production. But everyone agrees that the role of the Saudis is very important. Low oil prices are also due to the agreement for the Iranian nuclear program, which makes everybody less worried about future imports, because they now that soon the Iranian oil will reach international markets. The American attack on Sadam Hussein and Iraq is another reason. With Sadam in power, the West was not allowing Western firms to enter the Iraqi market, or import oil from Iraq. The reason was that the revenues would finance the army of Sadam Hussein, who was an international terrorist. But now all Western and Chinese oil companies operate in Iraq.

Moreover the United States and Canada have increased their oil and natural gas production, because new technologies allowed the production from shale rock. The world bad economic climate and recession during the last years must have also pushed oil prices downwards. Probably there are many other factors that contributed to low oil prices, some of which I do not know, and some of which I cannot think about right now. At the following diagram you can see oil prices from 1860. The diagram is taken from Business Insider “An Annotated History Of Oil Prices Since 1861”, December 2014.

Oil Prices

You can see that oil prices were very high during the American Civil War (1861-1865). Then prices were relatively low, until they exploded in 1973, when the Arabs decided to punish the West for its support to Israel during the 1973 war between Israel on one hand, and Egypt and Syria on the other. After the oil embargo of 1973 the United States banned exports of American oil, because it was thought that the United States should enhance its energy security. The Americans wanted to reduce their dependence on their ally, Saudi Arabia, after the oil crises of 1973.

However I believe that the victory of Israel wasn’t too bad for the Saudis, because for the Saudis Egypt and Syria were greater enemies than Israel. There was of course a great problem, and that was that the Israelis had agreed with the Iranians to export the Iranian oil to the Mediterranean Sea through the Israeli port of Eilat and the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline. Remember that the Israelis and the Iranians were allies until 1979. The Israeli-Iranian agreement was hurting Egypt, because the Iranians would avoid the Suez Canal, but it was also hurting the Saudis, because they could not use Israel, since they had never recognized it as a country. Remember that Iran is the main competitor of the Arabs in the oil markets. For more details see the “The Intra-Arab War for Oil 1950-1970”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/06/09/the-intra-arab-oil-war-1950-1970/

Map Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline

Map Eilat

https://iz4c4w.bn1.livefilestore.com/y2pqcGNQMG_CIBR7ilUdNsFsf2SqNMlrEa-MuvDeznEXzvaLcgcH3sIkSQl8ZIA1dXK7H43t2R3sLRWXcuF9O5qMCKGmIsHOlCz6H_5MDFtYzM/SINAI-MAP.png

After 1973 prices were low, and they exploded again in 2008, when they reached 140 dollars per barrel. Again the price increases were due to a combination of factors, and I am not sure which one was the most important. For a discussion on the price increases see “The 2008 Oil Price Shock: Markets or Mayhem?”, November 2009.

Articles

“Venezuela's president says oil industry needs $88 price”, October 2015

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/21/uk-opec-venezuela-idUKKCN0SF02U20151021

“The 2008 Oil Price Shock: Markets or Mayhem?”, November 2009

http://www.rff.org/blog/2009/2008-oil-price-shock-markets-or-mayhem

“An Annotated History Of Oil Prices Since 1861”, December 2014

http://www.businessinsider.com/annotated-history-crude-oil-prices-since-1861-2014-12

The Energy Expenditure of the United States - The Importance of Energy

The following map from the Business Insider shows the energy expenditure of the United States as a percentage of the American GDP (Gross Domestic Product). See “Here's What Happens When US Energy Spending Passes 9% Of GDP”, June 2011.

Picture 1

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-energy-limit-model-2011-6

By “energy expenditure” the article refers to all forms of energy i.e. oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, coal etc. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the total added value produced by a country.

Think about GDP in the following way. Man A cut a tree and sells it to man B for 10 dollars. Man B makes a table with this tree and sells it for 30 dollars to man C. Assume that this is the only economic activity in the country during the year. Therefore the total added value produced in the economy was the 10 dollars that man A made by cutting the tree, and the 20 dollars that man B made by converting this tree to a table and selling it for 30 dollars. Therefore the GDP can be seen as the profit of man A (10) and the profit of man B (20), or the total profit of the economy. That’s not the definition of GDP, and the calculation of the GDP is a very complicated procedure in a real and complex economy, but the above example with the tree and the table is all you need to know to understand what the GDP is about.

From picture 1 you can see that the energy expenditure of the United States was approximately 10% of the GDP in 2008, and 7.5% in 2009. I guess that the main reason for the large percentage of 2008 was the very high oil prices of that year, as you can see at the following table from the London School of Economics. Actually I am only guessing here, but there must be a relationship between the two, since the American economy is addicted to oil.

Picture 2

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/01/21/falling-oil-prices-should-help-europes-ailing-economies-but-the-wider-implications-of-the-price-drop-remain-to-be-seen/

If we take the American GDP to be approximately 17 trillion, a 10% energy expenditure amounts to 1.7 trillion dollars per year. Therefore we can assume that in 2008 the American public, the American citizens and the American companies paid approximately 1.7 trillion dollars for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy etc. That’s a huge amount.

The following map from Wikipedia shows the various sectors of the American economy as a percentage of the American GDP (2011).

Picture 3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

You can see that retail sales in the US accounted for 6% of the American GDP. That means that the valued added produced by the process of retail sales was less than the energy expenditure of the United States. What I am trying to show energy’s great importance for the large industrial economies i.e. USA, China, Japan and Germany, which are the four largest economies in the world. Think about the United States as a company with an annual profit of 17 trillion dollars. This company has to pay 1.7 trillion dollars every year for energy i.e. electricity, oil, natural gas, gasoline etc, in order to heat its buildings, to move its vehicles, to produce its goods etc. That’s a huge amount, and you can imagine what would mean for this company (country) if oil prices were to increse from 20 to 140 dollars, as was the case for the period 2000-2008.

The higher the energy prices the more a company has to charge for its products, and the less competitive the economy becomes. If a country can get lower energy prices than a competing country, she will have a lower production cost and a more competitive economy (ceteris paribus). That’s a great problem for a country, and it can lead to wars on its own. But there is a more important problem i.e. the issue of national security. All countries want to make sure that in case of war they will have access to energy sources.

Finally the energy sources are not unlimited. For example for the last decades the French state-owned Areva, which is a major producer of nuclear energy, has been counting on Niger’s uranium reserves. Now that the Chinese and the Iranians are giving France a hard time in Niger, because they need Niger’s uranium for their own nuclear programs, France might lose some of Niger’s uranium fields. But even if France does not lose this uranium fields, she might have to pay higher prices to Niger due to more competition and higher demand. That would mean higher energy prices and higher production costs for France, and a lower competitiveness in the international markets for the French products.

Finally I have to say that more than 2/3 of the oil and natural gas reserves of the planet are located in the zone Persian Gulf- Caspian Sea – West Siberia. See following map.

Picture 4

For the Business Insider article see:

“Here's What Happens When US Energy Spending Passes 9% Of GDP”, June 2011

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-energy-limit-model-2011-6

The Map of the Islamic State (ISIS)

A very nice map by the New York Times article, titled “Where ISIS Has Directed and Inspired Attacks Around the World”, November 2015. The map shows the main activities of the Islamic State (ISIS). With red dots you can see the countries where ISIS has carried out attacks, with empty red dots the countries where attacks inspired by ISIS have been carried out, and with gray dots the countries were members of ISIS have been arrested.

Map 1

As you can on the map the Islamic State (ISIS) has carried out attacks in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and of course at Iraq and Syria which constitute its base.

With yellow you can see the counties that ISIS considers to be its provinces. These countries include the very rich in gas and oil Algeria and Libya, and also Tunisia, which can send the oil and gas of Libya and Algeria to Europe. The very rich in oil and gas Nigeria is also included. All the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, i.e. Egypt, Israel and Lebanon, are considered by ISIS as its provinces. These countries can be used to send the oil of the Middle East to Europe through the Mediterranean Sea bypassing Turkey. 

The rich in oil and gas countries of the Persian Gulf are also included in ISIS’s map. The rich in oil and gas Azerbaijan is also included, together with Georgia. Georgia sends the oil and gas of Azerbaijan to Turkey. Finally, Afghanistan and Pakistan are included in ISIS map. Afghanistan and Pakistan can send the gas of Turkmenistan and the oil of Kazakhstan to the Indian Ocean.

ISIS has attacked France in Europe, and there were also ISIS inspired attacks in Germany. Turkey has very problematic relations with France and Germany. The Russian natural gas also enters Europe through Germany and the Baltic Sea. This map shows the aspiration Turkey’s Islamists to revive the Ottoman Empire and control the oil and natural gas of the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia.

 “Where ISIS Has Directed and Inspired Attacks Around the World”, November 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/17/world/middleeast/map-isis-attacks-around-the-world.html

A Comparison between Cold War 1 and Cold War 2

Many analysts call the present situation in Ukraine and the Middle East “ Cold War 2”. Obviously Cold War 1 was the war between USA and the Soviet Union after the end of World War 2 (1945). It is true that the Cold War 1 never took the form of a direct military confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union, but nevertheless it was a war between the two parties.

I posted yesterday a map of the Baghdad Pact (1955), which was an anti-Soviet alliance between the United Kingdom, Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Pakistan, in order to form a “wall” between the Soviet Union and the oil of the Persian Gulf. You can see the map of the Baghdad Pact below. NATO’s main concern was that the Soviets, who were very rich in oil, would take control of the Persian Gulf, on which the West was dependent for oil.

Map 1 The Baghdad Pact 1955

http://brilliantmaps.com/cento/ 

Today the situation is very different but also very similar to what was happening in the Middle East during Cold War 1. Today it is the Russians who are trying to build a “wall” between Europe and the Persian Gulf, in order to prevent the Turkish-Arab pipelines (Qatar-Turkey) from sending the region’s oil and gas to Europe. If the oil and natural gas of the Middle East reaches Europe the state owned Russian giants Gazprom and Rosneft will be hurt. Today Russia counts on Europe for most of her oil and gas exports.

During most of the Cold War 1 the Soviets were not selling oil and gas to NATO members, while today the Russians are exporting most of their oil and gas to NATO members i.e. Germany, Italy, Turkey etc. The “wall” that the Russians are trying to build between Europe and the Persian Gulf is obviously the wall of “Iran-Iraq-Syra”.

Today there is one more complication, because Iran wants to use what is a “wall” for Russia i.e. Iran-Iraq-Syria, in order to send its oil and gas to the Mediterranean Sea and Europe. That would allow Iran to avoid the excessive discounts that the Turks are demanding from the Iranians in order to send their oil and gas to Europe. Russia would not be willing to allow Iran to reach the Mediterranean Sea, unless Gazprom managed such a pipeline (Iran-Iraq-Syria). Therefore Russia might have to build a second wall in the Mediterranean Sea in order not to only stop the Turks and the Arabs, but to stop the Iranians too. Russia has already done that with her increased military presence in Syria, and with her enhanced alliance with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Cold War 2 in the Middle East is very similar to what was happening in the Middle East during Cold War 1. Except that almost everything is reversed.

Map 2 Map of the Middle East

Map 3 Oil Fields (black) and Natural Gas Fields of the Middle East

See also “Who is Responsible for the War”

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/21/who-is-responsible-for-the-war-and-the-immigrants/

and “The Map of the Baghdad Pact”

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/11/03/the-map-of-the-baghdad-pact-cento/