Germany's Defeat by the Turkish Islamists and the Greek Communists

In the first eleven months of 2015 Germany received four times more immigrants than she did for the whole 2014. In the first 11 months of 2015 Germany received 965 thousands immigrants. See Guardian “Germany on course to accept one million refugees in 2015”, December 2015. That’s more impressive when one takes into account that in 2014 Germany was already attacked by the Italian Prime Minister Mateo Renzi, who came to power in February 2014, and opened the Italian borders, sending hundreds of thousands of immigrants to Germany.

However that was nothing when compared to what the Greek communists and the Turkish Islamists did to Germany in 2015. When the Greek communists came to power in January 2015 they made an alliance with the Turkish Islamists and they completely destroyed Germany. The Greek communists completely reversed the immigration policy of the previous center-right government, basically inviting immigrants from all over the world to enter Greece. See the following table from the United Nations, which shows the dramatic rise in immigration inflows that followed Renzi’s rise to power in 2014, and the explosion that followed the rise of the Greek communists in 2015.

The Italians and the Greek socialists do not want to introduce reforms and transparency in the Italian and Greek public sectors, something required by the Germans in order to give them more money, and they are sending hundreds of thousands of immigrants to Germany, asking for more concessions in return for controlling immigration. Turkey, a German enemy, through her alliance with the Greek communists of SYRIZA, has already managed to gain 3 billion euros in order to control immigration, and also to unfreeze the negotiations for Turkey’s entrance in the European Union.

Image 1 United Nations – Immigration 2008-2015

Image 2 United Nations – Greece and Italy 2015

Articles

“Germany on course to accept one million refugees in 2015”, December 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/08/germany-on-course-to-accept-one-million-refugees-in-2015

UN Refugee/Migrant Emergency Response - Mediterranean

http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

The Intra-NATO War and the Attacks at the London Underground

On December 3^rd 2015 the British airforce bombed ISIS in Syria for the first time, following the British decision to fight ISIS together with France and Germany. The Brits have actually chosen to bomb a region with an oilfield controlled by ISIS. See CNN “UK jets target ISIS oilfield -- and group's income, defense ministry says”, December 2015.

Map 1 Iraq-Syria

On December 4^th hundreds of Turkish soldiers invaded Northern Iraq, near the rich in oil Mosul, which also accommodates oil refineries. See Guardian “Turkish troops go into Iraq to train forces fighting Isis”, December 2015. The Baghdad government of the Iraqi Shiites said that this is an invasion and requested that the Turkish soldiers leave the country. The Turks claim that they are trying to fight ISIS.

Map 2 Iraq – Arab Shiites (green), Arab Sunnis (pink) and Kurds (brown)

http://pukmedia.com/EN/EN_Direje.aspx?Jimare=34669

The truth is that if the Turkish army replaces ISIS the French, the English and the Germans will not be able to bomb anymore, because these areas will be controlled by Turkey, and Turkey, at least on paper, is a NATO ally for the French, the Germans and the English. Therefore an attack by England, France and Germany will be an attack a NATO ally and not an attack against ISIS. Everybody knows Turkey’s connections with ISIS, but these two are not exactly the same thing. The point is that the Turks will make it very difficult for the French, the English and the Germans to attack.

On 4^th December 2015 the British Telegraph, and many other newspapers, wrote that Germany does not want to share information with Turkey in Syria and Iraq. The Germans said that they are afraid that Turkey might use this information against the Kurds, but I believe the Germans are afraid that this sensitive information might end up in ISIS hands. See the Telegraph “Germany 'draws up plans to prevent sharing intelligence' with NATO ally Turkey”, December 2015.

Yesterday, only two days after the British attack against ISIS in Syria, a man attacked and hurt 3 people in the London Underground, shouting “That’s for Syria”. See Independent “Leytonstone stabbing treated as terror incident after attacker 'shouts this is for Syria”, December 2015.

I have to remind you that in September 2015 the Russians agreed on Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will double the Russian gas that enters Europe through the Baltic Sea and Germany, from 55 to 110 billion cubic meters per year. Gazprom holds 51% of the shares, and the rest is equally distributed to the French state-controlled ENGIE, the two German giants E.ON and BASF/Wintershall, the Austrian state-controlled OMV, in which the United Arab Emirates have a large stake too, and the giant Anglo-Dutch company Shell (Royal Dutch Shell). See Gazprom “Gazprom, BASF, E.ON, ENGIE, OMV and Shell sign Shareholders Agreement on Nord Stream 2 project”, September 2015.

With this agreement the Russians bypass Ukraine in order to send their gas to Western and Central Europe i.e. France, England, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, while at the same time they are giving a share to all the big players to keep them happy. They leave out the Italians, who are obviously not happy because they had a large share of the Southern Energy Corridor (Russia-Bulgaria-Southern+Central Europe). The Italians and the Spanish, who are very strong in the Arab countries of North Africa i.e. Algeria and Libya, are also trying to bring to Europe the natural gas of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea i.e. Cyprus, Israel and Egypt. See following map from a very interesting article from Natural Gas Europe.

Map Natural Gas of Egypt, Cyprus and Israel

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/egypt-catalyst-for-east-mediterranean-gas-hub-26842?utm_source=Natural+Gas+Europe+Newsletter&utm_campaign=afa169c0b0-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c95c702d4c-afa169c0b0-307785513

If the construction of a pipeline is not feasible, the Italians and the Spanish can also use the Egyptian LNG facilities of Damietta and Idku, in order to export to Europe in LNG form the gas of the region (see above map). See also “ENI VS Gazprom – A New War in Eastern Mediterranean Sea”

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/09/24/gazprom-vs-eni-a-new-war-in-east-mediterranean-sea/

All the above hurt vital Turkish economic interests, and in order to retaliate the Turkish Islamists have allied with the Greek communists and they are sending hundreds of thousands of immigrants to Germany and Austria tearing Europe apart. See also “The European Division Over Nord Stream 2”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/12/04/the-european-division-over-nord-steam-2/

Turkey is asking from the European Union 3 billion in cash, in order to help with the immigrants, and the Greek communist are asking the Europeans not to insist on reform and transparency in the Greek public sector, in order to help with the immigrants too. The Turkish Islamists are also asking that Turkey joins the EU in order to get the big money. I believe that under these conditions Turkey would allow Nord Stream 2 to go ahead. The English, the French and the Germans are currently paying Turkey the 3 billion euros. See Financial Times “EU ready to pay €3bn bill for Turkey’s help with migrants”, November 2015.

The disadvantage of the Russians, the French, the English and the Germans is that they cannot send troops in Syria and Iraq, and therefore they can never win this war no matter how much they bomb ISIS. However to retaliate, the French, the English and the Germans are at the same time bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Turkey cannot possibly say “don’t bomb ISIS”, because Turkey does not admit having any connections with ISIS. That’s Turkey’s big disadvantage. However what Turkey can do is to replace ISIS with the Turkish army as I explained before, in order for France, England and Germany not to be able to attack the regions that will be under Turkish control.

Another problem is that the US cannot intervene because there are NATO members in both sides. If the Americans fight Turkey on the side of France, England and Germany, it will be like throwing Turkey out of NATO. And the Americans really need Turkey in their struggle against Russia. If the Americans intervene on the side of Turkey they will go against their traditional allies, and that’s not possible either. Therefore the Americans will try to be the referee, but this is a very tough fight, and no referee can have an easy life.

The Turks VS the Russians

Articles

“UK jets target ISIS oilfield -- and group's income, defense ministry says”, December 2015

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/03/europe/uk-isis-airstrikes-syria/

“Turkish troops go into Iraq to train forces fighting Isis”, December 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/04/turkish-troops-iraq-train-forces-fighting-isis

“Germany 'draws up plans to prevent sharing intelligence' with Nato ally Turkey”, December 2015

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/12033869/Germany-draws-up-plans-to-prevent-sharing-intelligence-with-Nato-ally-Turkey.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

“Leytonstone stabbing treated as terror incident after attacker 'shouts this is for Syria”, December 2015

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/leytonstone-stabbing-man-attacked-with-machete-at-tube-station-a6762006.html

“Gazprom, BASF, E.ON, ENGIE, OMV and Shell sign Shareholders Agreement on Nord Stream 2 project”, September 2015

http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2015/september/article245837/

“EU ready to pay €3bn bill for Turkey’s help with migrants”, November 2015

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/100baae2-8964-11e5-9f8c-a8d619fa707c.html

The European Division Over Nord Stream 2

As you can read at the following article from the Russian state-owned news agency RT (Russia Today), the Russians accuse nine countries of the European Union for trying to “bury” Nord Stream 2. The Russians are saying that Bulgaria might also help these nine countries. That’s 10 countries in total, which according to the Russians are trying to bury Nord Stream 2. Nord Stream 2 will carry another 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Germany through the Baltic Sea, doubling the volume of the Russian gas that travels each year to Europe through the Baltic Sea.

Map 1 The Russian VS the Turks

The big advantage of the German-Russian pipelines is their increased security and safety, something which the Turks and the Greek communists of SYRIZA are trying to “cure”, by sending hundreds of thousand of illegal Muslim immigrants to Germany. A rise in radical Islamism will sooner or later reduce the safety of the Russo-German pipelines. Of course that’s not the only reason the Greek communists are working with the Turkish Islamists in order to send hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants to Northern Europe but also to Greece, causing the immense immigrant crisis that is tearing the European Union apart. 

The Greek communists also want to put pressure on Northern Europeans in order to block the reform and transparency that the Northern European are demanding, and which make the corrupt Greek political elite sick. In addition, these poor Muslims will soon be voters of the Greek left parties. Finally, Qatar, and the Arabs in general, are paying very generously European politicians who promote illegal Muslim immigration to Europe, since in the long term it means increased influence for them.

As you can see at the following map, the 10 countries accused by the Russians for trying to bury Nord Stream 2 are countries hurt by Nord Stream 2, and they fall into 3 main categories.

Map 2 The Countries Accused by the Russians 

The first category includes the countries that are earning significant commissions and discounts from the current Russian pipelines, which run through Ukraine and Belarus, before reaching Germany, Italy and France. This category includes Poland, the Check Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. It also includes Ukraine and Belarus of course, but these two countries are not members of the European Union.

The second category includes the countries that fear that Nord Stream 2 will make it harder for the Turk Stream (Russia-Turkey-Europe) and Southern Energy Corridor (Caspian Sea + Middle East – Turkey – Europe) to be constructed, and they fear that they will lose the commissions and discounts they will gain from these pipelines in the future. This category includes Greece and Bulgaria. It also includes the so Former Yoguslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro. But these countries are not members of the EU.

The third category includes the countries that fear that the German-Russian pipelines will sooner or later lead to an alliance like the one between the nazis and the communists in 1939 (Molotov-Riebentrop Pact). In 1939 the German nazis and the Russian communists agreed that the communists would send the nazis oil from Russia, and in exchange the nazis would send the communists manufactured goods from Germany. This alliance was broken by the nazis two years later, in 1941, because the oil sent to Germany by Stalin was not enough to feed the German army. Therefore Hitler decided to take control of the oil of Baku and invaded Russia. But he failed.

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland are afraid that the breaking of NATO and the European Union will lead to a German-Russian alliance, and they will be crashed by the Germans and the Russians, in the same way they were crashed in the Second World War, in order for the Russians and the Germans to form a common frontier in order to fight the Westerners. On the contrary, the Germans, who have to pay billions to sustain the socialist economies of the European South, believe that the cheap Russian gas is of vital importance in order to keep the German economy competitive and the German products cheap in international markets.

Actually things became a bit complicated because the Russians gave a 10% share in Nord Stream to the British Royal Dutch Shell, and another 10% to the French state owned ENGIE, making the English and the French seeing Nord Stream 2 in a positive way. I am not saying that there will be a Third World War, but it was geopolitical mess like the one we see today that led to the first two world wars.

For the RT (Russia Today) article see:

 “Nine EU countries want to bury Nord Stream-2”, December 2015

1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd Paragraph

A group of Eastern European countries has sent a letter to the European Commission calling to block the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine. They say it goes against the EU’s energy diversification and security policies.

The countries against Gazprom’s deal with Berlin are headed by Slovakia and Poland who are believed to have initiated the campaign. They are supported by the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Greece. Bulgaria was planning to sign the document, but walked away, according to the FT. The EU has confirmed receiving the letter. 

Greek Energy Minister Panos Skourletis said Athens did not sign a petition to block Nord Stream-2. He confirmed this to Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak during a meeting on Wednesday according to the Ministry.

https://www.rt.com/business/324224-nord-stream2-europe-gazprom/

“EU leaders to clash over Nord Stream 2 at summit”, December 2015

3^rd Paragraphs

The countries whose energy ministers signed a letter to the Commission in which they oppose Nord Stream 2 are Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Romania. Greece has also reportedly joined the initiative.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/eu-leaders-clash-over-nord-stream-2-summit-320114

ISIS Attacks the United States?

ISIS, contrary to what happens with Al-Qaeda, was mainly anti-Shiite and not anti-American. The reason is that Turkey has a lot of influence over ISIS, while many Saudis are behind Al-Qaeda. And the Turkish geopolitical interests are much closer to the American ones, at least when compared to the Saudi ones. I do not mean to say that only Turks are behind ISIS. But Turkey is the strongest Muslim country in the world in military terms.

However the problem is that in Syria, American interests are much closer to the interests of the socialist Sunnis of Syria and of the Syrian Kurds, and in Iraq they are much closer to the interests of the Iraqi Shiites and the Iraqi Kurds. Turkey on the other hand, together with the Arabs of the Persian Gulf, in Syria and Iraq they support the Islamist Sunnis i.e. ISIS, and other Sunni Islamist organizations. Therefore the Americans and the Turks support opposing sides in Syria and Iraq.

As you can read at the following International Business Times article, there is fear that ISIS was behind yesterday’s mass executions in California (December 2^nd 2015). It remains to be seen whether the attacks were carried out by ISIS sympathizers, as was the case with the attacks of Charlie Hebdo in Paris (January 2015), or whether the attacks were carried out by ISIS itself, as was the case with the attacks of Paris in November 2015.

It is also difficult to distinguish between ISIS and Al-Qaeda, because sometimes the members of ISIS join Al-Qaeda and vice versa, depending on who is paying better. I would expect that in Syria and Iraq, where ISIS is very strong, and Turkey is very strong too, it is the members of Al-Qaeda who join ISIS most of the time, and in Africa, where Turkey’s presence is not equally strong, and where Al-Qaeda is very well organized, it is ISIS members who normally join Al-Qaeda. Actually it is not as simple as that, because we saw Boko Haram, the terrorist organization of Nigeria, changing its name and becoming the ISIS branch of Nigeria. I am just saying what would make more sense, but it is not necessarily correct.

For the IBT article see:

“Islamic State In California? After San Bernardino Shooting, Rumors Abound Online About Potential ISIS Connection”, December 2015

http://www.ibtimes.com/islamic-state-california-after-san-bernardino-shooting-rumors-abound-online-about-2209035

The Truth about the US Invasion of Iraq in 2003

Below you can see a very nice demographic map of Iraq. It shows with green the Arab Shiite part of the country, with pink the Arab Sunni part, and with light brown the Kurdish Sunni part of the country. The map says that Arab Shiites account for 60% of the Iraqi population, while the truth is that they account for 65%, and the Arab Sunnis and the Kurdish Sunnis of Iraq account for 35%, with another 5% non-Muslim part.

Map 1 Demographic Map of Iraq

http://theglobalstate.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/iraq-ethnic-map.gif

Saddam Hussein, who was overturned by the US in 2003, was a socialist Sunni Arab of Iraq, and he was funding every socialist terrorist organization of the planet. Saddam Hussein belonged to the 20% minority who was oppressing the rest 80% of the Arab Shiites and the Sunni Kurds of Iraq. Saddam was using socialism to decrease the role of religion in Iraq, in order to eliminate this demographic disadvantage. For the Kurds, and for the Shiites of Iraq, the Americans were liberators. But you can see how the dirty journalists, even American ones, accuse the United States for overturning Saddam Hussein.

Journalists accuse the United States for overturning Saddam, when they know that Saddam had carried out so many terrorist attacks against the United States. They don’t mind that Saddam was a dictator who belonged to a 20% minority of Iraq. The real reason the rotten journalists did not want Saddam to go was that his overturn would make the Shiite Pipeline possible (Iran-Iraq). This pipeline would obviously hurt the economic interests of the Arabs of the Persian Gulf, and the interests of the Russians too. Both the Arabs and the Russians are famous for doing business with rotten journalists. If the Shiite Pipeline reaches the Mediterranean Sea, through Syria, the Arab and the Russian exports to Europe will be hurt, and Turkey will be bypassed as an energy hub. That’s what the rotten journalists care about. They don’t give a damn about democracy.

The war broke out because the Turks and the Arabs of the Persian Gulf rushed in Iraq, to chop off its Sunni part, in order to block the Shiite Pipeline, which would hurt the Arabs of the Gulf, the Turks and the Russians. These countries are international terrorists, and it is not the fault of the United States that they are killing whoever reduces their oil and natural gas exports.

Map 2 Shiite Pipeline (green) VS Sunni Pipeline (red)

I must also say that the Arab Shiites of Iraq are natural competitors with the Iranian Shiites of Iran in the Persian Gulf, because they both export oil and natural gas. The thing is that they can cooperate in the Mediterranean Sea. The Iranians can allow the Iraqis to export oil and gas to Europe through their ally i.e. Syria. That is of course if the Iraqi Shiites also allow the Iranians to reach Syria through Iraq. Until now the Iraqi Shiites have chosen to cooperate with the Iranian Shiites. In the future, if they thing that the Sunni bloc is stronger, they might decide to change sides. We will have to wait and see.

The problem with the United States is not that they overturn Saddam Hussen. The problem is that they do not overturn every single dictator. They only do it when they have an interest to do so. Otherwise they don’t help the people who are oppressed by socialist and islamist dictators. It is true of course that in 2/3 of the globe there are socialist or islamist dictatorships, and that makes it very expensive to help people who are oppressed by those regimes.

What is very sad is that even the French and the Germans diplomatically fought the Americans in Iraq. The Germans did it because of their common interests with Russia, and the French did it because of their common interests with the Arabs. Moreover the French have very problematic relations with the Iranians. The Iranians are an enemy of the Arabs, who are French allies, and the Iranians are also fighting the French for the uranium of Africa. The American military operation would obviously help the Iranians, and therefore the French had one more reason to be unhappy.

Now, with the agreement for the nuclear program of Iran, the Iranians will need more uranium, and they will fight more with the French in Africa. France was the country which imposed most of the obstacle in the West-Iranian negotiations for the Iranian nuclear program. Now, with the sanctions against Iran gone, the French might find a way to work with Iran in the energy sector, but they will have to be careful in order not to alienate their Arab allies. They also have to find a solution with Iran in Africa.

Putin VS Erdogan

The Turkish President, Tayip Erdogan, said that he will to resign if the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, proves that Turkey is buying oil from the oil fields controlled by ISIS in Syria and Iraq. The largest western newspapers have written that ISIS sells oil to everyone, even to its enemies i.e. Bashar al Assad in Syria. See for example Business Insider “ISIS is selling oil to the Syrian regime”, November 2015.

Besides, I would expect these sales to take place through agents, and therefore the buyer can even claim that he did not know from whom he was buying. Therefore I am sure that Turkey is also buying oil from the oil fields controlled by ISIS.

But if the oil of the Islamic State was the main reason that Turkey and Russia are fighting in Syria, Russia should have undisputed photographic material to make her case. Putin, except of accusing the son of Tayip Erdogan for buying oil from ISIS, he also said that there are so many trucks carrying the oil of the Islamic State to Turkey, that they form a moving oil pipeline. But if this is true where are the photographs supporting Putin’s claims?

After all, the Financial Times, and all major newspapers, estimate the oil revenue from all the oil fields controlled by ISIS to 1,5 to 2 million dollars per day. See for example Financial Times, “Inside Isis Inc: The journey of a barrel of oil”. That means an annual income of 700 million dollars in oil revenue for ISIS. That’s a huge amount for a terrorist organization, and a huge amount for a businessman like Bilal Erdogan, but it is peanuts when compared to national incomes. For example, only from oil exports, Russia received 415 billion dollars in 2013. See Forbes “Russia's Oil Industry Is Doing Fine, Which Is Great News For The Kremlin”, January 2013.

Therefore, without ignoring the importance of illegal oil trade in Syria and Iraq, the main reason that Turkey and Russia are fighting in Syria is Syria’s great geostrategic importance. It is up to Syria to decide whether the Sunni pipeline i.e. Qatar-Turkey, will be constructed, avoiding at the same time Kurdistan, and it is up to Syria to decide whether the Shiite Pipeline i.e. Iran-Iraq will reach the Mediterranean Sea, thus bypassing Turkey. Both of these pipelines hurt Russia, since Russia’s main market is Europe. But obviously the Sunni Pipeline hurts Russia a lot more. See also “Who is Responsible for the War and the Immigrants”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/21/who-is-responsible-for-the-war-and-the-immigrants/

That’s where the big money is, that’s what the war is about. Peanuts do play a role but they are just peanuts. You can have fights for peanuts but you don’t have global wars for peanuts.

Map 1 Sunni-Shiite Pipelines

For the articles see:

“Turkey’s Erdoğan Vows to Resign If Putin Proves ISIS Oil Claims”, December 2015

http://europe.newsweek.com/turkeys-erdogan-vows-resign-if-putin-proves-isis-oil-claims-399780?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email

“Russia's Oil Industry Is Doing Fine, Which Is Great News For The Kremlin”, January 2013

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/01/03/russias-oil-industry-is-doing-ok-which-is-good-news-for-the-kremlin/

“ISIS is selling oil to the Syrian regime”, November 2015

http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-selling-oil-to-biggest-enemy-2015-11

“Inside Isis Inc: The journey of a barrel of oil”

http://ig.ft.com/sites/2015/isis-oil/

Why Turkey Allows France to Use Her Military Bases Against ISIS

As you can read at the following New Europe article, Turkey decided to allow France to use her military bases of Incirlik, in order for France to bomb ISIS in Syria and Iraq. See “Turkey opens airspace to French jets”, November 2015. Naturally Turkey has never allowed Russia to use her bases.

http://neurope.eu/article/turkey-opens-airspace-to-french-jets/

That’s a very impressive diplomatic move from Turkey, whose status was deeply hurt when the Russian President publicly accused Turkey of supporting ISIS by buying its oil. The Russian president said that the trucks carrying the oil to Turkey are so many that they form a moving oil pipeline. Moreover the Russian state-owned news agency RT (Russia Today) wrote that the companies of Tayip Erdogan’s son i.e. Bilal Erdogan, are buying oil from ISIS.

By opening her Incirlik bases to France, Turkey can say that she helps the war on terror. But I am sure that Turkey is not only trying to improve her image abroad. Turkey is going for a lot more than that. Remember that in the past Turkey has also allowed the United States to use her Incirlik bases to bomb ISIS in order to convince the Americans to agree on a Turkish controlled buffer zone at the Turkish-Syrian borders. Turkey needs a corridor to Syria in order to import oil and also help the Sunni Islamist militants she supports in Syria and Iraq. See “The Oil Fields of the Islamic State”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/the-oil-fields-of-the-islamic-state/

But it is a sure thing that the United States would let Turkey know what they were doing in Syria and Iraq when they were using the Incirlik bases. The United States want to support the Kurds against ISIS in Syria, and also to prevent the oil of the Iraqi Kurds from falling under the control of ISIS, but nevertheless for the Americans Turkey is an ally and Russia is a rival. This is true even with the differences that arose between the Americans and the Turks over the Kurds and due to the American-Iranian rapprochement. Therefore Turkey is expecting the US to support her against Russia, who is a common rival.

After all, ISIS is not anti-American. ISIS is anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian, sometimes even anti-Saudi. But ISIS is not anti-American. It is al-Qaeda which is very anti-Shiite but also very anti-American. And that’s normal because there is a lot of Turkish influence over ISIS while there is a lot of Saudi influence over al-Qaeda, and the Turkish geopolitical interests are a lot more aligned to the American ones, at least when compared to the Saudi ones. See “ISIS VS Al-Qaeda Part 2”.

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/11/15/isis-vs-al-qaeda-part-2/

Map 1

But let’s think about France and Turkey for a moment. In Syria, France has supported the removal of Bashar Assad with the same, if not with more enthusiasm than Turkey. Bashar al Assad is a Russian and Iranian ally, and the French are selling to the Arabs of the Persian Gulf weapons worth billion of dollars. When you sell so many weapons to the Arabs you need to offer them some protection too from the Iranians and the Turks. Moreover the French and the Arabs are cooperating in the energy sector. The French also have very problematic relations with the Turks and the Iranians. The point is that the French, together with their Arab allies, want Assad to go, and that’s what Turkey wants too. But that’s not what Russia wants.

Moreover Turkey is in a very difficult position because there is a European alliance against ISIS, with France, England and now Germany on board. If all these countries start bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Turkey might have a big problem. Therefore it is a sure thing that Turkey would love to create a division between Russia and France. After all the Russians and the France might have a common problem with the Jihadists, but in Syria the French want Assad to go and the Russians want him to stay. By downing the Russian aircraft the Turks increased tensions with Russia and drew the US closer to Turkey, and made it ever harder for France to work with Russia. Now they are trying to bring France on their side too.

We should not forget that for France North Africa is a lot more important than Syria and Iraq, while Syria and Iraq are a lot more important than North Africa for Turkey. It is in Africa that the French army is hunting the Jihadists, and Africa is the main source of terrorism for France. Moreover we should not see ISIS as one thing. The ISIS of Nigeria has different interests than the ISIS of Iraq etc. We should see the various branches of ISIS in the same way we see NATO or any other alliance. International branches of ISIS can work together when they have common interests, and they cannot when they don’t. I usually refer to Turkey when I talk about ISIS because in military terms Turkey is the strongest country of the Muslim world, and it is a country that supports Sunni Islamist militants.

That does not mean that Turkey is the main influence over ISIS in Nigeria or ISIS in Afghanistan. I would expect Turkey to be the major influence over ISIS in Iraq and Syria. But it is difficult to imagine that any ISIS branch would ignore Turkey, and dare to go completely against Turkey’s wishes, given how important and strong Turkey is. The same is true for Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda. What I am trying to say is that maybe Turkey could use her influence over the Jihadists of North Africa in order for the French to feel a bit more comfortable when they are sleeping, and France could pay less attention over the Jihadists of Syria and Iraq. In addition France has many problems with Islamists supported by Iran in North Africa, and maybe Turkey could help even more on this one.

Therefore Turkey could provide some help to France, given that North Africa is less important than Syria and Iraq for Turkey, and given that Syria and Iraq are less important than North Africa for France. After all both Turkey and France want Assad to go, and sometimes the Turks cooperate with the Arabs of the Persian Gulf, who are French allies, against Russia and Iran.

Therefore we have to wait and see how France is going to respond to the Turkish gesture, and also we have to see how far Turkey is willing to go with France. Because we can be sure that Turkey would not be willing to let France bomb whatever she wants and whenever she wants in Syria and Iraq. And we also have to see how the French-Russian relations will be affected if the tension between France and Turkey does indeed cool down. What is for sure though is that France has a problem with the Jihadists and Turkey will have to somehow help France with that, if she really wants to bring France closer to her and away from Russia. France and Russia on the other hand have the Jihadists as a common threat, and Turkey as a common rival, but in Syria they are on the opposite sides, because France might not be on the Turkish side, bus she is on the Arab side.

Another thing that must be taken into account is that the French know full well that by cooperating with the Russians they are making life hard for their American allies, because the Americans cannot support Russia against Turkey, at least not for now. Moreover the Russians are much closer to France’s main competitor in Europe i.e. Germany, and also Russia is a Chinese ally, and the French are competing with the Chinese for the resources of Africa. Therefore the French know that they need the Americans, and they know that by aligning with the Russians they make life harder for them, and that’s not good for France.

Finally we should not forget that just yesterday i.e. 29.11.2015, the agreement between the EU and Turkey was finalized, and Turkey will receive 3 billion euros to stop immigration flows from Turkey to Europe. Moreover Turkish citizens will have the right to enter the EU without visas. France must have also played a role in this agreement, and we do not know what she might have asked from Turkey in return.

Therefore, even though the Turkish gesture to allow France to use Incirlik is very impressive, we should better wait to see what will happen, and how the relations between France and Turkey and between France and Russia will be affected. But Turkey enjoys immediate benefits because she can say that contrary to what the Russian president said she helps the war on terror.