Κυριακή 31 Ιανουαρίου 2016

The So-Called Wars of Religion

Very often you hear people talking about wars of religion, for both the wars of the 20th and the 21st centuries. I would like to give some examples about why it is very wrong to describe these wars as wars of religion. At the following map I have marked with red the West Central Asia, a region predominantly Muslim, which came under Russian control in the 19th century, and remained under Russian control until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. East Central Asia, also a region with Muslim majority, today called the Xin Jiang Province of China, came under Chinese control and remains under Chinese control to this very day. The Turkish nationalists call Xin Jiang “East Turkestan” and consider it as a region that should be under Turkish influence, as the rest of Central Asia should be according to them.

Map 1



At the map you can also see with green another predominantly Muslim region, which was controlled by the Ottomans until the First World War 1914-1918, when it came under British and French control, after the Ottoman defeat.

What we observe during the 20th and 21st century wars is that the Russian Christians supported the Muslims to drive away from the Middle East the English and French Christians. We also observe the English and the French Christians, and also the American Christians, supporting the Muslims of Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to drive away from Central Asia the Russian Christians. In all that we cannot see wars of religion. We can only see wars between the West and the Soviet Union. But if we do not look at the big picture, and we focus on regional wars, we might think that this is about wars of religion.

Today we might once more think that we are dealing with wars of religion, but that’s not true either. For instance Russia, France, England and Germany might have started aligning against Turkey, which is the greatest military power of the Muslim world, but the United States, a Christian country, is a Turkish ally.

It is true that the Americans and the Turks have many problems in Syria and Iraq. In Syria the Americans support the Kurds of Syria and the Turks the Sunni Arabs of Syria. In Iraq the Americans support the Shiite Arabs and the Kurds, while the Turks support the Sunni Arabs of Iraq i.e. the people of Saddam Hussein. But the Americans and the Turks remain united against Russia.

At the following map you can see the Sunni, Shiite (Shia), Alawite and Kurdish parts of Syria and Iraq.

Map 2 Alawites, Sunnis, Shiite (Shia) and Kurds of Syria and Iraq




Some analysts predict that the Americans might have to cooperate with Russia in the future, because all of the US allies in Europe are already doing it to some extent. This might happen in the future, but that’s not what we see for now. Note that the cooperation between Russia, France, Germany and England is not a true alliance. They are just cooperating against Turkey and ISIS even though they have many differences among them.


For all of us who live in Europe, especially the ones living near Turkey, today’s wars might again seem like wars of religion. But also note that the European left is aligned with the Islamists today. See Jeremy Corbyn in England (Labour Party), Pablo Iglesias in Spain (Podemos), Alexis Tsipras in Greece (SYRIZA) and many others. After the collapse of the Soviet Union most of the leftists turned to the Islamists. Actually the Islamists pay better than the Soviets used to.

Note that Islamic countries i.e. countries where the Koran is the law, fall into two categories i.e. the Islamic Monarchies and the Islamic Republics. Islamic Monarchies are countries where the Koran is the law and they have kings (monarchs) as their leaders. Islamic Republics are the equivalent of the communist countries in the Muslim World. Communist countries are called Democratic Republics or People’s Republics, and the equivalent in the Muslim world is the so called “Islamic Republic”. Communism almost bans religion and communism is normally not very welcome in the Muslim World.

People’s Republics and Islamic Republics have almost the same economic models, but the Koran is the law of the Islamic Republic, while religion is almost non existent in the People’s Republics, where the law is the General Secretary of the Communist Party. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait etc are Islamic Monarchies, and Iran, Pakistan and Sudan are Islamic Republics. Note that Turkey is in the process of becoming an Islamic Republic. The Turkish Islamists came to power in 2003, and they are gradually moving Turkey from a secular state to an Islamic Republic.

Today the communist leaders are cooperating very well with Islamists leaders. I have mentioned before that a Greek Member of Parliament, Kostas Zouraris, an ex-member of the Greek Communist Party, and currently a member of the governing coalition, clearly supported the Jihadists who carried out the terrorist attacks in Paris (November 2015). Kostas Zouraris called the Jihadists fighters of freedom and dignity who fight against the French colonialists. All European communists would agree with him, even though they would not openly admit it.

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, communists would normally support socialist terrorists who were trained by Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Hafez Assad in Syria, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Yasser Arafat in West Bank and Gaza, Fidel Castro in Cuba etc. But now European communists also support terrorists who are trained by Islamic countries. It does not even have to be Islamic Republics, it might as well be Islamic monarchies. For example Qatar, an Islamic Monarchy with great influence on European left, is a famous supporter of Islamist terrorists.


The thing is that communists and Islamists see us in exactly the same way. They believe that our countries are not really countries but a sum of corporations, and that we are so corrupted and greedy that we would even be willing to sell our own mothers for money. Nothing from what I say seems to be a war of religion. The main element is always the economic and the cultural. 

Σάββατο 30 Ιανουαρίου 2016

India VS China

The 46 billion dollars that China will invest in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor include the investment for the Chinese naval base in the Pakistani port of Gwadar at the Indian Ocean. The Chinese naval bases in the Indian Ocean will make China a two ocean super power, and will allow her together with her ally Pakistan to encircle India.

India on the other hand is trying to respond by encircling China with her defense cooperation with Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, Japan and South Korea.

Map 1 India VS China

 India also has the advantage that she has not broken her alliance with Russia, her traditional ally since the Soviet era, even though India has greatly improved her relations with the US in order to face China as a common rival. Therefore it would be difficult for Russia to intervene in the Chinese-Indian rivalry, while this is not the case for the United States, because China and the United States are confronting each other at the South China Sea.

China claims most of the South China Sea for herself. The Malacca Straits at the South China Sea are considered as one of the most important energy choke points in the world, since a huge amount of energy and tradable goods pass from it every day.

Map 2 Energy Choke Points



Articles

 “The Keys to Closer India-Japan Ties After Abe’s Successful Visit”, January 2016

India’s Strategic Vietnam Defense Relations”, November 2014

India, Indonesia to Cooperate on Maritime Security, Defense Procurement”, August 2015

Australia, India step up defence ties”, September 2015

Pakistan hands management of strategic Gwadar port to China”, February 2013

South Korea and India to boost defence ties, infrastructure finance”, May 2015

China in Afghanistan (Deutsche Welle)

A very nice article by the German state-owned news agency Deutsche Welle, about China’s role in Afghanistan. According to Deutsche Welle China did not attack the Taliban in Afghanistan on the side of the United States, but she has made great efforts in order for a truce to be reached between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The main reason China is interested in Afghanistan is because she does not want ISIS to get a foothold in Afghanistan, because that would allow ISIS to support the separatists Uyghurs in China’s XinJiang province. As you can see at the following map China and Afghanistan have common borders. Actually the borders of the other Central Asian counties with China are not very secure, and ISIS could also use these countries to enter China.

Map 1 China-Afghanistan



Also note that the Sunni Islamist organization East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is operating in XinJiang, and it is mainly supported by Turkey. As you can read at the following BBC article there is tension between Turkey and China over the very large Muslim population of XinJiang. See “China-Turkey relationship strained over Uyghurs”, July 2015.

I have already said that what Turkey really wants is that China heavily invests in Turkey, so that in return Turkey will use her influence over the Uyghurs and ETIM to keep things calm in XinJiang. According to Deutsche Welle many Uyghurs use fake Turkish passports to enter Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to receive military training in the Islamic military camps that operate in these countries, and which are mainly funded with Saudi money according to Deutsche Welle.

I have many times referred to the Arab and Iranian effort to block the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) Pipeline, promoted by Turkmenistan and India and supported by the United States. TAPI is for Central Asia what the Trans-Saharan Pipeline is for North Africa, and what the Qatar-Turkey and the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipelines are for the Middle East.

Map 2 TAPI



Deutsche Welle also mentions that the Uyghours believe that China is undermine their religion and culture, and that she also explois their natural resources. As you can see at the following Wikipedia map XinJiang is among the richest, if not the richest in oil region of China.

Map 3 China’s Oil Reserves



The article also mentions that China is promoting peace in Afghanistan due to the 46 billion dollar agreements she has signed with Pakistan for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), but also due to the 10 billion dollar agreement between China and the Afghan government for the extraction of Afghan copper, which has not materialized until now due to security concerns.

I must also say that Xin Jiang is very important for China because she borders 8 countries, as you can see at the following Britannica map. Since the ancient years and the ancient Silk Roads XinJiang was very important for China, because underneath XinJiang lie the inaccessible and hostile Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, which are the natural borders between China and India.

Map 4 XinJiang



Map 5 Himalayas-Tibet



Map 6 Tibet-XinJiang



At the southern part of XinJiang lies the Taklamakan Desert. At the following map I have marked with red the Tibetan Plateau and with black the Taklamakan Desert.

Map 6 Tibet-Taklamakan Desert



At the following Wikipedia map you can see the ancient Silk Roads, and as you can see they pass above the Himalayas and Tibet. The Silk Roads were passing both underneath and above the Taklamakan Desert.

Map 7 Ancient Silk Roads


Map 8 Taklamakan Desert



For the Deutsche Welle article see:

“What does China want from the Afghan peace process”?, January 2016
8th, 9th Paragraph
Siegfried O. Wolf, director of research at the Brussels-based South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF), said the claims by some Chinese sources that Uighur militants use fake Turkish passports to enter Afghanistan and Pakistan to join extremist groups makes Beijing increasingly concerned about the long war in Afghanistan.
"In the Afghan and Pakistani camps, which are heavily funded by Saudi Arabia, Uighurs receive ideological indoctrination as well as military training," said the analyst.
12th Paragraph
China has also signed multibillion dollar deals with Afghanistan, some of which involve the extraction of copper from the Mes Aynak mine in Logar Province - believed to be worth $10 billion. State-owned company China Metallurgical Group Corporation acquired the extraction rights of the mine in 2007 for $3.5 billion (2.6 billion euros), but the project has never actually kicked off given the deteriorating security situation and poor infrastructure in Afghanistan.


Παρασκευή 29 Ιανουαρίου 2016

The Geopolitics of the Sunni World

The most important countries of the Sunni Muslim World are Turkey, as the Muslim country with the strongest army, Saudi Arabia, as the richest in oil Muslim country, Egypt, as the largest and strongest Arab country, Pakistan, as the only Muslim nuclear power, and Indonesia, as the largest Muslim country in the world, with 250 million inhabitants.

Map



Egypt, Turkey and Russia are the three connections between Europe and Asia (Silk Roads). Egypt’s greatest enemy is Turkey, and Egypt were under Turkish control during the last centuries. Turkey’s greatest enemy is Russia, which is the country that can really challenge Turkey. Saudi Arabia was normally under Turkish control, and emerged as a great Sunni power when her huge oil reserves were discovered in 1938.

Saudi Arabia would like to claim a Silk Road that would lead her to the Mediterranean Sea through Jordan and Israel, but Egypt and Turkey are militarily stronger and would never allow that to happen, unless Saudi Arabia was prepared to pay significant commissions. Saudi Arabia’s greatest enemy is Iran, which is Saudi Arabia’ competitor in the oil markets of Asia. Iran also has a great geographical advantage, because Iran can connect to Europe and Asia through pipelines i.e. through Turkey and Pakistan, while the Saudis cannot do that. Actually they could but it is much easier for the Iranians.

Map



Pakistan is a highly corrupted Islamic country, and its greatest enemy is India. Pakistan and China jointly fight India.

Indonesia’s greatest enemy is China, because China claims most of the South China Sea.

Important countries of the Sunni World are also Libya and Algeria. Since the war between Algeria and France was over, Morocco has been Algeria’s number one enemy. Algeria is in favor of independence of the rich in gas West Sahara, currently controlled by Morocco. The Algerian-Moroccan borders have been closed for many years.


Libya’s number one enemy was France, at least during Muammar Gaddafi’s rule, due to the great French influence in West Africa. Gaddafi thought that West Africa belonged to his sphere of influence and always challenged France. Algeria has stronger economic ties with France and Libya has stronger economic ties with Italy.

Πέμπτη 28 Ιανουαρίου 2016

Russia VS North Korea

According to the American Interest article, Russia’s recent tough criticism of her ally North Korea might have to do with the discussion between Russia, Japan and South Korea over the construction of an undersea natural gas pipeline that will connect the three countries.

Map 1 Asia Pacific



North Korea is a communist country with very mall production, while South Korea and Japan are capitalist countries with huge productions and huge energy needs. Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world and South Korea is the 13th. Japan and South Korea have very hostile relations with North Korea, but Japan and South Korea also have problematic relations. Japan invaded the Korean Peninsula and left only after the end of World War 2. The Japanese were cruel conquerors and exercised excessive violence against the Korean people.

However in December 2015 Japan and South Korea decided to leave their old differences aside and move on. See the Diplomat. This is very good for the United States, because these two countries are US allies against China in the South China Sea. But it is also very good for Russia because a common gas pipeline could be constructed in order to serve both countries. Currently these two countries buy expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG), mainly from Qatar and Australia. See Energy Information Administration below. Remember that Japan reduced her production of nuclear energy after the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011.

If this pipeline is finally constructed the Russians will be willing to return a part of the Kuril Islands to Japan. The Russians invaded the Kuril Islands after the end of World War 2, and these islands are the cause the Japanese and the Russians have never officially singed a peace treaty after the end of WW2.

Moreover, if a Russia-Japan-South Korea Pipeline was to be constructed, Russia could divert some of her gas exports of Europe to the East, and thus Russia could be willing to allow the European Union to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, which is actually the official policy of the European Union. Therefore even though an energy connection between Russian, Japan and South Korea would further complicate the geopolitical landscape, it could also relieve some of the tension between Russia and the European Union, since Russia would have an alternative for her exports.

Articles

“Hoping to Please Japan, Russia Censures DPRK”, January 2016

Russia proposes building natural gas pipeline to Japan –Nikkei”, October 2014

Japan, South Korea Reach Agreement on 'Comfort Women”, December 2015

Japan Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Τετάρτη 27 Ιανουαρίου 2016

The Rebellion of the Tuareg Desert Warriors in 2012

The Tuareg are tough nomads who live in the Sahara Desert, in Algeria, Libya, Niger, Nigeria and Mali. See the following Wikipedia map.

Map 1 The Tuareg Region



The Tuareg were traditionally financed by Muammar Gaddafi, the socialist dictator of Libya. As you can see from the map the Tuareg live in a very small part of Libya and they were no threat for the Libyan dictator. The Tuareg want to create an independent state, the Azawad. Azawad is the northern part of Mali, as you can see on the following Wikipedia map.

Map 2




“Azad”


For Gaddafi the Tuareg were very useful, first because they were causing turmoil in a region that Gaddafi was confronting the French. France traditionally had great influence over West Africa. With red on the following map you can see the French colonies in Africa, and with blue the British. Libya has been traditionally under Italian control. France traditionally had stronger economic ties with Algeria and Italy with Libya.

Map 3 African Colonies in 1914



Muammar Gaddafi always claimed a part of the French influence in West and North Africa, and he trained terrorists that were against the French, or against governments friendly to France. The Tuareg were among the ones trained in the Gaddafi terrorist academy, the World Revolution Center at Benghazi. At Benghazi Gaddafi was training socialist terrorists from all over the world. See Metro “Revealed: Colonel Gaddafi’s school for scoundrels”, March 2011.

Map 4 Benghazi



I often say that the French rely on nuclear energy and they import 25% of their uranium from Niger, and Niger borders Libya, and is also home to a significant Tuareg population. See World Nuclear Association “Nuclear Power in France”, November 2015.
65th Paragraph
France uses some 12,400 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate (10,500 tonnes of U) per year for its electricity generation. Much of this comes from Areva in Canada (4500 tU/yr) and Niger (3200 tU/yr) together with other imports, principally from Australia, Kazakhstan and Russia, mostly under long-term contracts. Areva perceives the front end of the French fuel cycle as strategic, and invests accordingly.

Other than causing troubles for the French in Africa, the Tuareg were also useful to Gaddafi because they made difficult the construction of the Trans-Saharan Pipeline, which would connect Nigeria and Algeria through Niger, and which would hurt Libya’s economic interests. As you can read at the following Reuters article, the Trans-Saharan has been on the table since the 70s, and it was finally agreed on 2009. See Reuters “Nigeria, Algeria agree to build Sahara gas link”, July 2009

1st and 2nd Paragraphs
Nigeria, Algeria and Niger on Friday signed an agreement to build a multi-billion dollar gas pipeline across the Sahara that could send up to 30 billion cubic metres a year of supplies to Europe.
The idea of piping gas thousands of kilometres across the Sahara was first dreamt up more than 30 years ago, but the project remained on the drawing board pending a concrete agreement between neighbouring states and a clear funding plan.
7th Paragraph
France's Total (TOTF.PA), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) have all expressed interest in helping Nigeria's state-run NNPC and Algeria's counterpart Sonatrach in the project.
Gazprom and NNPC agreed to invest at least $2.5 billion to explore and develop Africa's biggest oil and gas sector, including building the first part of the Trans-Sahara pipeline. [ID:nLO549518]
Some analysts see Russia's keen interest in Nigeria as an attempt to maintain its grip on Europe's natural gas supplies.

Map 5 Trans-Saharan Pipeline



The French Total, the Anglo-Dutch Shell and the Russian Gazprom offered to help Nigeria and Algeria with the construction of the Trans-Saharan, and the Europeans accused Gazprom for trying to control the European energy market. See “NATO VS Gaz;prom: The War for Europe”.

The Trans-Saharan also hurt the economic interests of the Arabs of the Gulf, the Iranians and the Turks, and as a result the Tuareg allied with the Jihadist organizations like Al-Qaeda. See “France urges talks with Mali rebels, unity against al Qaeda”, April 2012.

The above were definitely one of the reasons that the French grabbed the chance and attacked Gaddafi when the Arab Spring broke out. See “France VS Muammar Gaddafi”.

When the Arab Spring broke out, Gaddafi once more hired the Tuareg to defend him. But this time Gaddafi fell, and the Tuareg were left with the arms provided to them by Gaddafi. When they went back home they used their enhanced arsenal to claim independence in Mali, and the result were the Mali War of 2012.

Map 6 The Tuareg Rebellion



Tuareg rebellion (2012)

For the Tuareg funding by Gaddafi see also the following two articles from the BBC and the New York times.

“Gaddafi's influence in Mali's coup”, March 2012
2nd Paragraph
The trouble began when hundreds of Malian combatants who had fought to defend the late Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, fled back home with weapons at the end of last year and formed the most powerful Tuareg-led rebel group the region has known - the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA).

“Qaddafi’s Weapons, Taken by Old Allies, Reinvigorate an Insurgent Army in Mali”, February 2012
2nd and 3rd Paragraph
Hundreds of Tuareg rebels, heavily armed courtesy of Colonel Qaddafi’s extensive arsenal, have stormed towns in Mali’s northern desert in recent weeks, in one of the most significant regional shock waves to emanate directly from the colonel’s fall.
After fighting for Colonel Qaddafi as he struggled to stay in power, the Tuaregs helped themselves to a considerable quantity of sophisticated weaponry before returning to Mali. When they got here, they reinvigorated a longstanding rebellion and blossomed into a major challenge for this impoverished desert nation, an important American ally against the regional Al Qaeda franchise.
19th and 20th Paragraph
In some ways, the aggressive new Tuareg campaign represents the kind of support the rebels had long sought from Colonel Qaddafi, who for years alternately aided and betrayed the desert warriors, according to a recent study by Mr. Boilley. After the great regional droughts of the 1970s and 1980s, young Tuaregs migrated north to the colonel’s military training camps, to later fight for him in places like Chad, while at the same time destabilizing the governments in Niger and Mali.