Table of Contents
In order to understand the
21st century policies of the great powers in the Middle East, it is
imperative to know what these powers really want from this region. Because
there might be many factors influencing their behaviour, but obviously they are
not equally important. For the general reader to understand the policies of the
great powers in the Middle East, the focus must be only on their most important
geopolitical objectives, and that’s exactly what this essay is going to do,
because sometimes too much detail can blur the big picture. Once the main
geopolitical objectives of the great powers are outlined, one only needs to
examine how the objectives of one power complement or compete with the
objectives of the other powers.
When I say “great powers”,
I mean the countries that can quickly mobilize huge military forces, and such
countries are mainly the United States, China and Russia. As you can see in the
following Wikipedia link, according to all three sources used by Wikipedia, it
is these three countries that have the highest military spending in the world.
Military Spending by Country (Wikipedia)
Image 1
Annual military spending
amounts approximately to 600 billion dollars in the US, 180 billion dollars in
China and 90 billion dollars in Russia. The following article by the Economist,
titled “Military Might”, April 2013, confirms these figures. http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/04/daily-chart-9
Before I examine the
geopolitical objectives of the US, China and Russia in the Middle East, I must
say that English is not my first language, so please excuse potential errors.
So what is it that the
Americans, the Russians and the Chinese really want from the Middle East in the
21st century? Once this question is answered, everything becomes
very simple. The US has increased its oil imports from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela,
even from Russia, while at the same time it has increased its own oil and
natural gas production too, and as a result it has drastically reduced its oil
imports from the Middle East. Therefore the US is not dependent on the Middle
East for oil in the same way it has been in the past, which was to a large
extent what determined the US policies in the Middle East during the 20th
century.
In the following Reuters
and Financial Times articles, titled “U.S. Seen as Biggest Oil Producer After Overtaking
Saudi Arabia”, July 2014, and “US Poised to Become World’s Leading Liquid Petroleum
Producer”, September 2014, you can read that in 2014, for the first time, the
United States overtook Saudi Arabia and Russia as the largest oil producer in
the world. Please note that Saudi Arabia and Russia still have larger oil
reserves than the United States. The US simply managed to significantly
increase its production.
However even though the US
became the world’s largest oil producer, it remains one of the world’s largest
importers of oil. On the contrary, Russia is not only one of the world’s
largest producers of oil, but she is also one of the world’s largest exporters.
The difference is due to the fact that the Russian economy, with a GDP of only 2
trillion dollars, is a much smaller economy than the American one, which has a
GDP of 16 trillion dollars. The Chinese economy is somewhere in the middle with
a GDP of 8 trillion dollars. In the following Wikipedia table you can see the
world’s ten largest economies, as given by the United Nations.
Image 2
In the following pie
chart, of the following National Public Radio article, titled “U.S. Rethinks
Security As Mideast Oil Imports Drop”, November 2012, you can see that in 2012
the Persian Gulf accounted for only 22% of US
Image 3
As you can read in the
following Wikipedia link, the National Public Radio is an American non-profit
public radio. It is the association of the American public radios, and it was
called the Association of Public Radio Stations before it was renamed to NPR.
Therefore the Middle East
is losing its geopolitical importance as the main oil provider for the US
economy, which was the main American interest in the region during the 20th
century. However the Middle East remains a region of high strategic and
geopolitical importance, since it holds over 50% of the world’s oil and natural
gas reserves, and these reserves will be of crucial importance in case of
future conflicts.
Many US allies of the Asia
Pacific region still count on the Persian Gulf for their oil and natural gas
supplies. As you can see in the following pie chart, from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration, Japan, a major US ally, imports 79% of its oil from
the Middle East i.e. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran.
Image 4
Moreover, as you can see
at the following pie chart, Japan imports 29% of its natural gas from the
Middle East i.e. Qatar, Oman and UAE.
Image 5
The same is true for many
other US allies in the Asia Pacific region. On the following map you can see in
red circles the countries that have some kind of military doctrine with the US,
i.e. Japan, Australia, South Korea, Thailand and Philippines, and in purple
circles you can see the countries that have some kind of more relaxed military
cooperation with the US i.e. New Zealand, India, Indonesia and Taiwan. All these
countries feel the breath of Chinese communists and are eager to cooperate with
the United States of America in order to protect themselves.
Image 6
The second, but by far the
most important reason the Middle East is strategically important for the US, is
because the Americans are hopping that they will eventually manage to construct
a pipeline network that will connect the Middle East to Europe through Turkey.
This is very important for the Americans and the EU, in order to provide a
pipeline network that will reduce the Russian influence over Europe.
The Russians have a very
important geographical advantage in the European energy market, and as a result
they can exert significant political influence on European governments, by the
use of carrot and stick. Sometimes by offering lucrative business deals, and
sometimes by increasing the price of natural gas. This is causing great internal
conflicts in NATO and the European Union, two traditional western alliances.
The way the Russian
natural gas divides Europe and NATO is a very big issue, and I will very soon
upload a separate document on the subject. For the time being you can have a look
in the following Financial Times article, titled “Russia’s South Stream gas
pipeline to Europe divides EU”, May 2014.
It is only in the Middle
East that there are natural gas and oil reserves of comparable size to the
Russian ones, which can provide a long term alternative to Russian natural gas
and oil. It is true that Norway, Algeria and Libya do have some descent natural
gas and oil reserves, and they are already connected to Europe by pipeline
networks, but their reserves are peanuts when compared to the Russian ones (see
following map).
Image 7
It is only Iran, Qatar, Iraq and Turkmenistan
that possess natural gas reserves that could provide alternative to the Russian
natural gas, and which could also travel to Europe with pipeline networks
through Turkey (see following map). When natural gas travels by ships in
liquefied form, i.e. LNG, it involves significant costs, and it is very
difficult to compete with natural gas sold through pipeline networks, which is
the case for the Russian sales in Europe.
Image 8
On page 21 of the
following Energy Information Administration link, you can see the countries
with the largest natural gas reserves in the world.
Image 9
Note that figures are
given in trillion cubic feet, and in order to convert them to trillion cubic
meters one needs to divide them by 35, i.e. Russia has 1.688/35= 48 trillion
cubic meters of natural gas reserves. The following table shows the richest
countries in natural gas reserves according to the CIA’s World Factbook (given
in trillion cubic meters).
Image 10
Estimating the natural gas
and oil reserves can be a very difficult task, since they are changing every
year as they are exploited by the countries hosting them. Therefore there are
some differences between various rankings, but all the rankings I have seen so
far have Russia, Iran and Qatar as the three richest countries in the world in
terms of natural gas reserves.
According to BP, Russia
has used a large part of its natural gas reserves and it does not have 48, but
32 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, ranking second behind Iran. You can
see the BP estimates in page 20 of the following link (see black triangles).
Image 11
Source: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf
The BP estimates are used
in the following Business Insider article, titled “The 17 Countries Sitting on
the Most Valuable Energy Reserves”, February 2014. The site is ranking Iran as
the richest country in natural gas reserves, with 1.187 trillion cubic feet,
and Russia second with 1.163 trillion cubic feet. However Business Insider
ranks Russia as the richest country in energy reserves overall, because it
takes into account oil, natural gas and coal reserves. Russian natural gas, oil
and coal reserves have a commercial value of 40 trillion dollars, while Iran is
in the second place with a value of total reserves of 35 trillion dollars.
Therefore one must keep in
mind that it is very difficult to accurately estimate world natural gas and oil
reserves, and the available estimates should be only used as an approximation.
Having made this
parenthesis about the world’s natural gas reserves, I will return to the
subject. I was saying that connecting Middle East and Europe through Turkey
with a pipeline network, is by far the most important American geopolitical
objective in the Middle East. Actually this was obvious in the way the Americans
did not hesitate to cause severe problems in their relations with Israel and
Saudi Arabia, their traditional allies in the region, in order to normalize
their relations with Iran. Iran is one of the richest countries in the world in
natural gas reserves, and as you can see on the above map, Iran is also the
country best located in order to send natural gas to Europe through its
neighbouring Turkey.
Now what does Russia want
from the Middle East? Russia is one of the richest countries in the world in
terms of oil and natural gas reserves, and never needed, and will never need the
resources of the Middle East for herself. The main aim of Russia in the Middle
East is to stop the United States and the European Union from connecting Europe
to the Middle East with pipelines. This would cause more competition in the
European energy market. This greater competition in the European market would
result in lower prices and revenues for Russia, and it would also reduce the
geopolitical might of the Russian natural gas and oil, since European countries
would be far less dependent on Russia for their energy security.
Russia is a highly
corrupted country, and oil and natural gas account for most of her exports. Oil
and natural gas sales account for 68% of Russia’s exports, as you can read in
the following article of the US Energy Information Administration, titled “Oil and
Natural gas sales accounted for 68% of Russia’s total export revenues in 2013”,
December 2014.
Image 12
Natural gas accounts for
only 14% of the Russian exports, but the importance of natural gas is quickly
rising, firstly because the world’s natural gas reserves are expected to last
much longer than the oil ones, second because natural gas is much better for
the environment, and most countries are trying to substitute oil with natural
gas, and finally because natural gas can be used much more effectively than oil
as a geopolitical tool, when it is supplied by pipelines and long term
contracts. When it is supplied in liquid form by ships i.e. LNG, its geopolitical
might is greatly reduced.
For the Russian oil and
natural gas exports you can also read the following Telegraph article, titled “Russia
faces oil export catastrophe, snared in OPEC price trap”, December 2014, which
describes the economic hardships that Russia suffers due to Saudi Arabia’s
price war.
1st and 2nd
Paragraphs
Vladimir Putin faces a
catastrophic shortfall of at least $80bn (£51bn) in oil export revenue over the
next year, after Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia signalled there will be no easing in
the price war it has launched to recapture market share.
According to US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) figures, oil and gas shipments
accounted for 68pc of Russia
In the following Eurostat
table you can see Europe’s main oil and natural gas suppliers. It can be seen
that in 2012 Europe imported 33.7% and 32% of her oil and natural gas
respectively from Russia. Europe’s second biggest supplier is Norway, which is
not a member of the European Union. However as I already said Norway’s natural
gas and oil reserves are very small when compared to the Russian ones, and therefore
Norway cannot provide a long term alternative to Russian gas and oil.
Image13
At the following US Energy
Information Administration link you can see the best clients, i.e. importers,
of Russian oil in 2012.
Image 14
Germany is Russia’s best
client, followed by the Netherlands. China is Russia’s third best client,
followed by another five European countries. In the following article of New
York Times, titled “How Much Europe Depends on Russian Energy”, September 2014,
you can see how dependent on Russian oil each individual European country is.
The following table shows
the Russian natural gas exports to Europe, in billion cubic meters. The figures
are taken from Gazprom. Gazprom is the Russian natural gas giant, and it is
controlled by the Russian state.
Image 15
Image 16
Source: Gazprom http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/statistics/
At the following link of
the CIA’s World Factbook, you can see that total Russian natural gas exports
for 2013 were 193 billion cubic meters. As you saw from the Gazprom figures
above, 161.5 billion cubic meters of these sales were made to Europe and
Turkey. Therefore most of the Russian natural gas sales are made to Europe and
Turkey.
Image 17
It is therefore clear that
Europe and Turkey are by far Russia’s best clients, and that’s why Russia’s
main objective in the Middle East is to block the connection of Middle East to Europe
through pipeline networks that would not be controlled by the Russian
government. Such pipeline networks would hurt Russian sales both in Europe and
Turkey. It is also important to keep in mind that the importance of natural gas
is increasing very fast. Therefore the geopolitical aims of Russia in the
Middle East are exactly the opposite from the American ones.
Now what is it that China
wants from the Middle East? China sees the Persian Gulf, in exactly the same
way the United States did at the end of the Second World War. For China the
Middle East is the region that can guarantee her energy security for the next
decades. China wants to keep for herself as much as possible from the region’s
natural gas and oil reserves, and she wants them in the lowest possible prices.
Therefore USA, China and
Russia want very different things from the Middle East in the 21st century. The
Americans want to use Middle East to reduce the Russian influence in Europe, the
Russians want to protect their prices and market share in the European markets
from the Middle East oil and natural gas, and the Chinese want the reserves of
the Middle East for themselves at the lowest possible prices.
The following map depicts
the pipeline networks that were supported by the Americans and the Europeans as
competing to the Russian ones. The red-green line is Nabucco, a natural gas
pipeline which was finally abandoned, and the red-purple line is the Baku-Ceyhan
pipeline, an oil pipeline that has already been constructed. The Baku-Supsa oil
pipeline has also been constructed, and it carries oil from Azerbaijan to
Georgia and the Black Sea.
Image 18
Nabucco had the backing of
the European Investment Bank, as you can read at the following Deutsche Welle
article, titled “Proposed Nabucco Gas Pipeline Gets European Bank Backing”,
January 2009
The European Investment
Bank (EIB), is the non-profit bank of the European Union, and its purpose is to
finance projects that are of vital
importance to the EU. At the following Reuters article, titled “U.S.
throws weight behind EU's Nabucco pipeline”, February 2008, you can read that
the United States of America strongly supported Nabucco too.
The case of Russia in the
Middle East is very simple, because the only thing that Russia wants is that
the Middle East does not mess with the Russian sales in Europe. However it is
very difficult for Russia to make friends in the Middle East, because contrary
to the US, China and Europe, she is not an importer of oil and natural gas.
Russia is an exporter and a natural competitor of the rich in oil and natural gas
countries of the region.
It is not a coincidence
that the oldest Russian ally in the region is Syria, a country poor in oil and
natural gas, at least by the standards of the Middle East. As you can read in
the following CNN article, titled “The Moscow-Damascus alliance: A tangled tale”,
2012, Syria has been a Russian ally since the Soviet Era and the 50s.
1st Paragraph
Many observers point to
Moscow's close ties with Damascus going back to the 1950s as a reason for
Russia now acting to defend the al-Assad regime in Syria against its many
internal and external opponents.
Iran and Iraq are two of
the richest countries in the world in terms of oil and natural gas reserves,
and they are Russia’s natural competitors. However they have been very close to
Russia, due to their rivalry with the West. Their rivalry with the West, with
the economic sanctions that this rivalry implied, prevented Western
multinationals from entering and investing in the Iranian and Iraqi energy
markets, and therefore the production in Iran and Iraq could not reach the
levels reached by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and UAE.
Moreover, very often these
countries could not export to Europe due to economic sanctions. Therefore they
were not Russia’s major competitors. In addition Iran and Iraq were very good
customers of the Russian armament industry. Russia is also developing the
Iranian nuclear program. Contrary to US, China and Europe, which are all
importers of oil and natural gas, Russia is a major exporter, and therefore tensions
in the region are very good for her, because they drive oil and natural gas
prices upwards. While high oil and natural gas prices make governments in USA,
Europe and China unpopular, they increase the revenues of the Russian
government, and allow it to increase public spending, which is always very
popular with the electorate.
But if Iran and Iraq
manage to work things out with the West, they will no longer need Russia, and
they will no longer have a motive to be aligned with her. These countries only
need Russia as long as they are in bad terms with the West. The problem for the
West is that it is very difficult to be in good terms with all the rich in oil
and natural gas countries of the region, because these countries are very
hostile towards each other, in a non-stop fight about who is going to better
promote his oil and natural gas.
However it is still correct
to say that it is much easier for USA, China and EU, than it is for Russia, to
make friends in the region. The United States, even though they increased
significantly their oil and natural gas production, they are still one of the
world’s largest oil importers. Actually the US was the largest oil importer
until 2013, when it became second to China, as you can read in the following
article of the Energy Information Administration, titled “China is now
the world’s largest net importer of petroleum and other liquid fuels”,
March 2014.
The Middle East always
welcomes large oil and natural gas importers, as long as they do their shopping
in the region of course. Therefore China, the US and Europe will always choose
their allies, and Russia will only be able to pick what is left in order to
make alliances.
Contrary to Russia, China
is really hungry for the oil and natural gas reserves of the Middle East, ands
she is the best client right now. All the rich countries of the Middle East are
looking to China and the other Asian countries in order to sell their goodies,
since the US has significantly reduced its purchases from the region, and
Europe mainly buys from Russia.
The following table is
from the Energy Information Administration article, titled “How much petroleum does
the United States import and from where”, which shows from which countries the
US imported its oil in 2013. The US still buys from Saudi Arabia, but the US
oil imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to fall even more in the future,
while exactly the opposite is expected to happen with the Chinese imports.
Image 20
At the following article
of National Public Radio, titled “U.S. Rethinks Security As Mideast Oil Imports
Drop”, November 2012, you can see with sky blue the current Chinese, American
and European oil imports from the Middle East ,
and with dark blue what their imports are expected to be in 2035.
Image 21
Source: http://www.npr.org/2012/11/14/165052133/u-s-rethinks-security-as-mideast-oil-imports-drop
Source: http://www.npr.org/2012/11/14/165052133/u-s-rethinks-security-as-mideast-oil-imports-drop
You can see that the
Chinese imports are expected to be very high in the next decades, the American
ones are expected to almost disappear, while the European ones will be
somewhere in the middle. Therefore the prosperity of the Gulf countries relies
to a large extent on China.
China is not only becoming
the best customer in the region, but she has also managed to avoid making
enemies until now, by keeping her army away from the Gulf, leaving that role to
the Americans. Therefore China has managed to be in relatively good terms with
all the countries of the Gulf, something that the Americans, the Russians and
the Europeans have not managed to do.
China’s aim is to work
with all the rich in natural gas and oil countries of the Middle East, without
getting militarily involved, which would cost her billions of dollars, and which
would make rivalries with the Gulf countries unavoidable. China wants to appear
in the region as a peaceful businessman. However as the temperature in the
Middle East rises, this becomes increasingly difficult, because all regional
players are asking for China’s support.
The major obstacle for the
US and the EU in the Middle East, in order to send natural gas to the EU through
Turkey, is that currently they only have at their disposal the large natural
gas reserve of Azerbaijan, namely the Shah Deniz field. Azerbaijan is a former member
of the Soviet Union, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union Azerbaijan became
a NATO friendly country, and at some point it might actually join NATO.
Azerbaijan hosts approximately
1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Most of this natural gas is held by the
Shah Deniz field, a natural gas field located in the Caspian Sea (red circle in
the following map).
Image 22
Obviously the 1 trillion
cubic meters of Azerbaijani natural gas is not a true rival for the 48 trillion
cubic meters of Russian gas. Therefore the Americans need to use the reserves
of one of the other countries of the region that are rich in natural gas, i.e.
Iran, Iraq, Qatar or Turkmenistan, if they want to send natural gas to Europe
(see the following map). The problem is that the Russians, with the help of the
Chinese, are making this very difficult for the Americans and the Europeans.
Image 23
Iran is a Russian ally,
and Iraq and Syria belong to the Iranian sphere of influence. Actually Syria is
a Russian ally too. Moreover the Russians were buying the natural gas of
Turkmenistan and selling it through Gazprom, until Turkmenistan was connected to
China through pipeline networks and long term contracts. Moreover the Russians
are trying to help Iran connect to China through the Iran-Pakistan-India-China
pipeline, in order to send its natural gas to China, leaving the European
market to Russia.
In the following RT
(Russia Today) article, a news agency funded by the Russian state, titled “Iran-Pakistan
lifeline: Pipeline aims for global power balance”, March 2013, you can read
that Russia is an enthusiastic supporter of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline.
1st Paragraph
The pipeline will bring
more than simply an economic boost to both countries; it is a crucial guidepost
on the path to peace. After generations of conflict, Iran
and Pakistan
Russia wants to
participate in the construction of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, as you can read
in the following Itar-Tass article, titled “Russia interested in construction
of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline”, September 2014. Itar-Tass is a news agency that
belongs to the Russian Federation.
China also wanted to participate
in the construction of the pipeline, as you can read in the following Times of
Tehran article, titled “China to back
Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project”, June 2012
In the following Wall
Street Journal article, titled “Iran-Pakistan Pipeline Deal Irks U.S.”,
February 2013, you can read that the pipeline is a big problem for the US, and
the Americans are proposing to Pakistan, India and China the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India
pipeline, TAPI, as an alternative.
1st Paragraph
In what has been
widely perceived as a pre-election stunt, Pakistan
has pushed ahead with a controversial pipeline deal with Iran – a move that has irritated the U.S. and that could lead to economic sanctions
if Islamabad
4th, 5th
Paragraphs
The U.S. has opposed the pipeline since its
inception, promoting the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline as an
alternative that keeps Iran
9th Paragraphs
While the pipeline could
bring relief to energy-starved Pakistan ,
analysts say that the deal reveals more about the geopolitical dynamics between
the U.S. , Pakistan and Iran
Image 24
In the end, with a
generous loan from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan agreed to cancel the Iran-Pakistan
pipeline, as you can read in the following Asia Times article, titled “Saudi
grant kills Iran-Pakistan pipeline”, March 2014
The Iran-Pakistan-India
China Pipeline is a great geopolitical concern for the US, but it is an even
bigger economic concern for the Saudis, because the Iranians and the Saudis are
competing for the Indian, Pakistani and Chinese markets, and the
Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline would give the Iranians a clear advantage
over the Saudis, because the Saudis cannot connect to these countries by
pipeline networks, and they have to use the sea lanes in order to export their
oil.
You should not believe
though, that the Americans are trying to block the pipeline because they want
to sell to China and India themselves. By their efforts to normalize their
relations with Iran, the Americans are causing severe problems in their relations
with the Saudis, and all the American energy companies are working in Saudi
Arabia. The Iran-Pakistan pipeline is a geopolitical concern for the US, while
it is an economic concern for the Saudis. The truth is that the Americans need
the Iranians, to counter the Russian influence in Europe.
However it is anyway
difficult for the Iranians to supply Europe with sufficient quantities of
natural gas right now, even if they reach an agreement with the West over their
nuclear program. You might want to have a look at the following article of
Trend, an Azeri site, titled “Delivering Iranian gas to EU unlikely, even in long
time”, December 2014. The article explains that even if Iran is willing to
supply Europe with natural gas, it will take many years of investments in order
to bring the Iranian production to a level that would be adequate for the
European demand.
Very often Iran does not even
manage to cover its own natural gas needs, and imports more natural gas than it
produces, as you can read in the following Reuters article, titled “Iran a net
importer of gas from Mar 2011-Jan 2012”, January 2012.
1st, 2nd
Paragraphs
“Iran, holder of the world's
second largest gas reserves, imported more natural gas than it exported over
the last 10 months, Fars News Agency quoted the head of the National Iranian
Gas Company (NIGC) as saying.
The semi-official news
service reported NIGC director Javad Oji saying Iran had imported nearly 9
billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in the 10 months since the start of the
Iranian year on March 21, 2011, up 35 percent year on year”.
Therefore even though the
Iranians hold the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, it will
take many years before they are ready to supply Europe, and that would be made
much harder if in the meantime the Iranians were connected to China through pipelines
and long term contracts, which is what the Russians are trying to do.
Another problem for the
Americans is that as long as Iran is a Russian ally, and as long as Iraq and
Syria belong to the Iranian sphere of influence, the Americans cannot even use
the Qatari natural gas reserves to supply Europe through Turkey. A potential
Qatar-Turkey pipeline would stop on a geographic “wall” formed by Iran, Iraq
and Syria (see following map).
Image 25
By financing and
supporting Jihadists, Turkey and Qatar are trying to break this “wall” in Syria
and Iraq. The rebels in Syria and Iraq are also funded by Saudi Arabia, which
feels threatened by the increasing Iranian influence in the region, since Iran
is her most important rival in the Middle East. You can read in the following
article of France 24, titled “Iraq’s Maliki accuses Saudi Arabia of supporting terrorism”,
March 2014, that the Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki accused Qatar and Saudi
Arabia of funding the terrorists in Iraq.
1st Paragraph
In an exclusive interview
with FRANCE 24, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki accused Saudi Arabia and
Qatar of supporting global “terrorism” and seeking to destabilise Iraq.
You can also read about
the accusations of the Iraqi Prime Minister in the following Reuters article,
titled “Iraqi PM Maliki says Saudi, Qatar openly funding violence in Anbar”, March
2014.
Therefore even though it
is not easy for the Americans and the Europeans to send the Iranian natural gas
to Europe, one should never forget that Iran is a natural competitor for
Russia, and it would be very good for Iran to sell its natural gas and oil to
Europe. Another reason the Iranians want to cut a deal with the West, is
because the abolition of the western economic sanctions will allow the big
Western multinationals to enter and invest in the Iranian energy market, which
would dramatically increase the Iranian production and revenues, as you can
read in the following Reuters article, titled “Iran lures oil majors with new contracts
pledge”, January 2014.
1st and 2nd
Paragraphs
Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani and Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said their new administration was keen
to open up to Western investments and technology, executives who attended the
meeting said. They also stressed the importance of fossil fuel, with global
energy demand rising.
Gazprom is developing some
Iranian fields, but Russia is a natural competitor of Iran, and she will never
invest in Iran the way the Western multinationals would. Moreover the Western
multinationals have superior technology, and they are the ones who
revolutionized the production techniques that allowed the extraction of natural
gas and oil from shale rock.
The main geopolitical objective
of the Chinese is to ensure that in the next decades as much as possible of the
oil and natural gas reserves of the Middle East will be available for China’s
energy security. This objective is very well served by the main geopolitical
objective of the Russians, which is to send the energy of the Caspian Sea and
the Middle East to China, in order to stop it from reaching Europe through
Turkey. In addition the Chinese want to have good relations with Russia,
because they count on Russia too for their energy security. Russia is a very
rich country in oil and natural gas reserves, and the two countries share
common borders (see following map).
Image 26
China and Russia recently signed
a 400 billion dollar agreement, according to which Russia will supply China
with approximately 35 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, for the
next 30 years.
The case of Turkmenistan is a very good
example of Russian-Chinese cooperation. The Russians were pushing Turkmenistan
to sell its natural gas through Gazprom, in order to prevent Turkmenistan from
sending its natural gas to Europe through Azerbaijan, if the Trans-Capsian
pipeline was ever built. At the following article of the Chronicles of Turkmenistan,
titled “Is Russia Abandoning Turkmenistan”, January 2014, you can read that
Russia is not buying the natural gas of Turkmenistan anymore, but she does not
worry about it either, because Turkmenistan is now connected to China through
pipelines and long term contracts leaving the European market to Russia.
With the red line in the
following map, you can see what would be the Trans-Caspian pipeline, if it had
it been built. This pipeline would connect Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, but until
December 2014 it has not been built. On the contrary Turkmenistan is already
connected to China with a pipeline network that runs through Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan.
Image 27
The same has been the case
with Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan does not have the rich natural gas reserves of
Turkmenistan, but it is very rich in oil. Kazakhstan is also sending a large
part of its oil production to China through pipeline networks, while the
Americans and the Europeans are hopping that Kazakhstan can send a part of its
oil to Europe through Azerbaijan and the Trans-Caspian pipeline.
Richest Countries in Oil Reserves
Image 28
As you can see in the
relevant Wikipedia link, the above figures are taken from OPEC 2011 figures. These
figures should be used as an approximation, because shale rock has been
included for some countries i.e. Canada, while it has not been included for
some other countries.
A natural question would
be why Russia does not mind the countries of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian
Sea supplying China with natural gas and oil, while at the same time she
prevents them from doing the same thing for Europe? The answer is that the rich
in oil and natural gas countries of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea need
to sell somewhere their natural gas and oil.
Of course it would be
better for Russia if the countries of the Gulf and the Caspian Sea did not
exist, or if they were very poor in natural gas and oil reserves. However the
countries of the Gulf and the Caspian Sea do exist and they have some of the
richest oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Therefore these countries
will either sell to Europe or Asia, and for Russia it is much better if they
sell to Asian countries than if they sell to the European ones.
Russia faces much less
competition in Europe than she faces in Asia. Asian countries have many choices.
They are next to the Persian Gulf, next to the Caspian Sea, next to Russia, and
next to Australia. Australia is becoming a significant exporter of liquefied natural
gas (LNG). Moreover Russia needs the countries of the former Soviet Union to
depend on her for natural gas and oil, in order to be able to exert some
geopolitical influence.
To better understand the Middle
East, one must also take into account that the level of production is not only
a function of the available reserves. There are also technological limitations
about how much oil and natural gas can be produced from a given field. For instance there might be a natural gas
field of 1 trillion cubic meters, which can only produce 1 billion cubic meters
of natural gas per year. Therefore there is not only competition about who is
going to control this field in the future, but there is also competition about
who is going to buy the 1 billion cubic meters of natural gas this year.
A good example is the
Nabucco pipeline, which was supported by the EU and the US, and which was
supposed to transfer each year to Europe 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas
from Azerbaijan through Turkey. The Nabucco plan was aborted because it was
very difficult to find these 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
That’s the basic story
between Russia and China. Russia is trying to block the connection of the
Middle East to Europe through Turkey, and that’s very useful for the Chinese,
since it leaves more resources for China, and less selling options for the
countries of the Middle East and the Caspian Sea, and less competition means
lower prices for the Chinese. From their part, the Chinese are trying to suck
the region’s resources, and this is very convenient for the Russians, because
these resources will not end up in Europe competing with the Russian oil and
natural gas.
However the above does not
mean that the Chinese and the Russians do not have conflicting interests too. First
of all Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, while China is a
major importer. Therefore China, similarly to the US and the EU, who are also
importers, wants low oil and natural gas prices, while Russia wants high oil and
natural gas prices, and this is something that greatly affects a country’s
policies.
In addition, the Russians
and the Chinese very often compete for the same resources abroad, since both of
them want to have access to foreign resources, the Russians in order to have
more power as sellers, and the Chinese in order to achieve better deals as
buyers. The case of Central Asia i.e. Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
is a good example. It is good for Russia that the oil and natural gas of these
countries end up in China instead of Europe, but China’s influence in these
countries is rising, and that’s definitely not good for Russia, because Russia used
to be the dominant power in Central Asia.
Moreover China and Russia
are two neighbouring super powers, both claiming the role of the regional
leader. They are united when it comes in reducing the American influence in
their neighbourhood, but that does not automatically resolve their own issues.
After all it was only in 1969 that the two countries went to a mini war for the
last time. On the question of whether China and Russia are friends or enemies,
many analysts reply that they are the best “frenemies”. Three very good
articles about the thorns in the Sino-Russian relations are the Financial Times
article “Russia and China – Friends or ‘frenemies’?”, December 2014, the
Economis’s “China and Russia: Best Frenemies”, May 2014, and Huffington Post’s
“Russia-China Gas Deal”, May 2014. You can read these articles at following
links.
The most interesting duet in
the Middle East is by far the USA-China one. USA and Russia do not presently have
much room for cooperation, while China and Russia have plenty. However USA and China
have room for both cooperation and confrontation. While the global interests of
US and China are moving in opposite directions, it is possible that the realities
of the Middle East will force the two countries to reach a minimum consensus
for cooperation.
As I already said the US
is no longer very dependent on the oil of the Middle East, and it will become
even less dependent in the future, while exactly the opposite is true for China.
As you can read in the following article of the National Public Radio, titled “U.S.
Rethinks Security As Mideast Oil Imports Drop”, November 2012, the Americans are
facing a great dilemma. On one hand they do not want, and cannot afford, to
finance their military presence in the Persian Gulf, in order to safeguard oil that
mainly goes to Asia. On the other hand the Americans do not want the Chinese to
have total control of a region that is of such strategic importance, as it is
the case with the Middle East.
The Americans realize that
the Chinese need the region to secure their energy supplies, in the same way
the Americans did in the past, and they have no problem with that. What they want
from the Chinese though, is to stop backing the Russians all the time, and
share with the US a part of the military cost associated with the Middle East. Moreover
the Chinese would have to accept the American plan of connecting Middle East to
Europe through pipeline networks, something that the Russians do not accept at
the moment.
The Chinese have already
made a move towards this direction, by abandoning the plans for the
Iran-Pakistan pipeline, as you can read in the following article of the Express
Tribune, titled “Gas import:
China abandons IP project, eyes TAPI pipeline”, April 2014. As you
can read in the article the Chinese are willing to go for the TAPI pipeline
(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) instead of the Iran-Pakistan one. The
Express Tribune is Pakistan’s only international newspaper, and it cooperates
with the international edition of the New York Times.
1st Paragraph
In a strategic move, China
5th Paragraph
Earlier, the official
added, China had expressed interest in becoming a member of the IP project, but
changed its stance later as the future of the venture looked uncertain in the
face of influence from a Gulf Arab country and threat of US sanctions.
If the Iran-Pakistan
pipeline is not built, it is much easier for the Americans to send Iranian
natural gas to Europe. Moreover there have been some efforts to achieve some
minimum cooperation between the navies of the two countries, as you can read in
the following Wall Street Journal article, titled “China Pushes Limits to Closer
Ties With U.S. Military”, July 2014:
1st and 2nd
Paragraphs
China is seeking greater
access to U.S. aircraft carriers and guidance on how to operate its own first
carrier, the Liaoning, testing the limits of a newly cooperative military
relationship the two sides have tried to cultivate in the past year.
The latest Chinese request
came last week when U.S. Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert, chief of naval operations,
visited China to explore new
areas of cooperation, despite recent maritime tensions and the presence of an
uninvited Chinese spy ship at naval drills off Hawaii
In the first three paragraphs
of the following Wall Street Journal article, titled “Middle East Oil Fuels Fresh
China-U.S. Tensions”, October 2013, you can read that China buys from the Middle
East more oil than the United States, and this causes tensions between the two
countries, because the Americans feel they are paying to protect oil that ends
up in Asian countries, and they are pushing China to back a bit more their
foreign policy.
Even though the article
does not say so, by “backing the American foreign policy”, it means to adopt a
more neutral stance between the US and Russia, and to help with the connection
of the Middle East to Europe. Don’t forget that China can influence countries
like Iran and Syria, which are beyond Washington’s influence. In the past, China
has backed all of Putin’s policies, like Qaddafi in Libya, Assad in Syria and
Sisi in Egypt.
However China did so in a
more diplomatic and a less military way than Russia did. The article also says
that China does not have the military means to safeguard the Persian Gulf by
herself, and that Zhang Guobao, the former head of the Chinese National Energy
Association, said that it is better for the Chinese if the Americans keep
safeguarding the Middle East.
1st , 2nd
, 3rd Paragraphs
China is overtaking the
U.S. as a buyer of Middle East oil, adding fuel to diplomatic tension between
the nations over security in the region.
China surpassed the U.S. as
importer of Persian Gulf crude several years ago, by some measures. Now it is
on track to overtake the U.S.
The turnabout has added to
tensions because it leaves the U.S. military securing China's growing oil
shipments in the region at a time Beijing resists U.S. pressure on it to back
American foreign policy in the Middle East.
4th, 5th,
6th Paragraphs
For years, China and other
oil-consuming nations have benefited as Washington spent billions of dollars a
year to police chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and other volatile parts
of the Middle East to ensure oil flowed around the globe.
But the rise of North
America's shale oil and gas industry has put the U.S. on track to pass Russia
this year as the world's largest combined producer of oil and gas, if it hasn't
done so already, according to a recent analysis of global data by The Wall
Street Journal.
That rise, combined with
flat U.S. oil consumption,
is making America far less
dependent on imported oil, including from the Middle East, even as China
15th, 16th,
17th Paragraphs
Signs of tension are
surfacing. Beijing has asked for assurances that Washington will maintain
security in the Persian Gulf region, as China doesn't have the military power
to do the job itself, according to people familiar with recent discussions
between the countries.
In meetings since at least
last year, Chinese officials have sought to ensure U.S. commitment to the
region isn't wavering, particularly as the Obama administration has pledged to
rebalance some of its strategic focus toward East Asia, said people familiar
with those discussions.
In return, U.S. officials have pressed China for greater support on issues such as its
foreign policy regarding Syria
and Iran
20th Paragraphs
At an April Brookings
Institution conference in Washington, D.C., when the former head of China's
National Energy Administration, Zhang Guobao, was asked whether China could
assume a greater role in protecting the region's shipping lanes, he responded:
"Why don't the Americans do the job for now."
It is not only the
economic cost that scares China when it comes to safeguarding the Middle East.
China also worries about the geopolitical costs associated with becoming a
referee in the regional oil and natural gas wars. Until now the Chinese have
been backing Russia, but they did so mainly with diplomatic means. If however
they become a major military power in the Gulf, the Chinese will have to pursue
a more active policy, and they will lose the advantage of appearing as a
peaceful businessman, which is very important in order to work with all the
countries of the region. This is an advantage that is not enjoyed by the
Americans, the Europeans or the Russians.
On the other hand the
Chinese cannot permanently avoid a significant military presence in the region,
because they need to protect their multi billion dollar investments. In the following
Financial Times article, titled “China’s strategic dilemma in the Middle East”,
August 2014, you can read that if the Americans stick to their new doctrine of
no more American “boots” in the Middle East, the Chinese will not have any
other choice than to increase their military presence.
8th Paragraph
The third option is hardly
more palatable. That is to recognise that as a trading nation China
At the following Forbes article,
titled “What Happens When America No Longer Needs Middle East Oil?”, March
2012, you will read that the Americans look like the English did in the 1970’s, when they could no longer
finance their military presence in the Middle East, and they left this role to
the United States
Many people do not realize
that it is very easy for wars to break out in the Middle East, because the
regional powers are competing so hard about who is going to sell more oil and
natural gas. If there is not a large foreign power in the region, whether that
is USA or China, the likelihood of wars will be higher and not lower. Therefore
sooner or later China will have to be a big military power in the region irrespective
of whether she cooperates or competes with the US.
The US and China will have
to decide how they are going to resolve this dilemma. None of them want to
assume all the military cost required for safeguarding the Gulf, but at the
same time they are the biggest importers of oil in the world, and they have a
common interest in keeping oil prices low. The problem is that they are not
allies as was the case with the English and the Americans in the 70s, and it is
difficult for them to cooperate. In the following article of the CNBC, titled “China's
Arab march”, June 2014, you can read that as the US will be decreasing its military
presence in the Middle East, China will have to increase hers, in order to protect
her multi-billion dollar investments in the region.
6th, 7th,
8th Paragraphs
Unsurprisingly, energy has
been a key factor in economic ties with the Arab world. From 2004 to 2013, China China Development
Research Center ,
Li Wei, pointed out in February, at the current rate, China
In this sense, China's
trajectory contrasts sharply with that of the United States, where the rapid
growth in output of shale oil and gas, together with energy-saving measures, has
brought energy independence closer than ever – a point that President Barack
Obama emphasized in his most recent State of the Union address. In fact,
according to the US Energy
Information Administration, China
surpassed the US
Moreover, the US is
gradually disengaging strategically from the greater Middle East, creating a
vacuum that China seeks to fill. To succeed, China
will need to become more attentive to the region's complex dynamics; find
creative ways to participate in conflict-resolution efforts; and respond
enthusiastically to Middle Eastern governments' growing desire to connect to Asia .
In the following article
of Al-Monitor, titled “Navy exercises bring Iran, China closer”, October 2014,
you will read that on the 20th of September 2014, China sent warships
in the Persian Gulf, for a joint exercise with the Iranian Navy, and this was
the first time that Chinese warships entered the Persian Gulf.
1st, 2nd
Paragraphs
On Sept. 20, China dispatched ships to the Persian
Gulf for a joint exercise with the Iranian navy — the first time that Chinese warships have
ever sailed in the Gulf. The Chinese missile destroyer Changchun and missile
frigate Changzhou of the 17th Naval Fleet took part in a five-day joint training
drill, the aim of which was "establishing peace, stability, tranquility
and multilateral and mutual cooperation," according to Adm. Amir Hossein Azad, commander of Iran's First Naval Zone. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ru/originals/2014/10/iran-china-navy-persian-gulf-us.html
At the following article of
the National Interest, titled “Time for a U.S.-China Partnership in the Middle East”,
September 2014, you will read that while the Americans and the Chinese are globally
moving in opposite directions, the Middle East is an exception, and there is
room for an American-Chinese cooperation.
2nd, 3rd,
4th Paragraphs
Under President Xi Jinping,
China and the United States have pledged to forgea new type of
great-power relationship. To date, this effort has largely focused
on strengthening bilateral cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. This is sensible
insofar as Asia is the most important region for both the United States and China
By contrast, America ’s and China ’s
major interests in the Middle East are nearly
perfectly aligned. Foremost among these is the free flow of oil. Since at least
the 1970s, the free flow of oil in the Persian Gulf has been a core U.S. United
States
Even as America ’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil
wanes, China China
is expected to surpass the United States
as the largest petroleum importer, and Beijing China China China ’s
best efforts to diversify its energy sources, Beijing China a stake in the region is essential for
reducing Beijing
11th, 12th
Paragraphs
Still, Beijing can
complement U.S.-led political and military engagements. For example, China maintains working relationships with a
number of important governments in the region that the United States shuns, such as Syria and Iran China as a more impartial actor than the United States , and Beijing ’s
active involvement in the Middle East peace
process could help unfreeze negotiations.
Similarly, while China cannot independently support long-term
military interventions in the Middle East , it
will be increasingly capable of participating in U.S.-led operations in the
years ahead. This would not only reduce the burden America
bears for these interventions, but would also help to improve mil-to-mil ties
between China and the United States
The good thing is that USA
and China are two of the richest countries in the world in terms of shale rock.
The new production technologies allow the production of oil and natural gas
from shale rock, which might relieve some of the tensions in the future. The
following table shows the richest countries in the world in shale rock as given
by Wikipedia.
Image 29
I must also say that even
though China and the US will be the two big rivals in the 21st
century, there are also some factors that bring them together. The Americans
are a much bigger trading partner than the Russians for China. Moreover, the US
and China are major importers of oil, and contrary to Russia they both want low
energy prices. Therefore the Americans, the Chinese and the Europeans, want the
countries of the Middle East to produce as much oil as possible, while the
Russians want the contrary.
In the past the Americans
managed to keep oil prices low, through their alliance with Saudi Arabia. Now
that the Chinese are the big customer of the region, and they are more popular
than the Americans, they have to use their influence to make sure that as much
oil as possible flows from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the other countries.
However in the same way that an appetite for low oil prices bring the US and
China together, an appetite for high oil prices bring Saudi Arabia, Iran,
Russia and Qatar together.
The oil and natural gas
producing countries have a motive to act as a cartel, in order to reduce
production and increase prices. Actually that’s the role of OPEC (Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). As you can read in the first two
paragraphs of the following Guardian article, titled “Russia, Iran and Qatar announce
cartel that will control 60% of world's gas supplies”, October 2008, Russia,
Iran and Qatar are holding 60% of the global natural gas reserves, and they are
making efforts to create a natural gas cartel, similar to what OPEC is for oil.
1st and 2nd
Paragraphs
“Western concerns about global
energy markets hit new heights last night when Russia, Iran and Qatar said they
were forming an Opec-style gas cartel.
The move by the three
countries, which control 60% of the world's gas reserves, was met with
immediate opposition from the European commission, which fears the group could
drive up prices”.
It is very important to take
into account the common interests that the importing and exporting countries
have when it comes to prices. Countries that export oil and natural gas compete
about their market shares, but at the same time they want high energy prices.
Countries that import oil and natural gas compete about who is going to control
the rich in oil and natural gas regions, but they all want low energy prices.
At the following two CIA tables you can see the biggest importers and exporters
of oil in the world.
Largest Exporters of Oil
Image 30
Largest Importers of Oil
Image 31
Therefore to analyze the
Middle East one needs not only to take into account the antagonism between oil
and natural gas exporters, but also the common interests between them. And the
same is true for the countries that are oil and natural gas importers. At the
following Itar-Tass article, titled “Lavrov goes to Saudi Arabia to discuss situation
in Syria, Iraq”, June 2014, you can read that Saudi Arabia and Russia were
discussing the possibility of cooperation between the two countries in the
energy sector, including nuclear energy. Itar-Tass is a news agency that
belongs to the Russian Federation.
5th Paragraph
The two countries also
develop economic cooperation, including in the energy sphere. On June 18, Russia and Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is the
country that together with the Americans fought the Soviet Union for decades. And
as soon as the Americans are not the best customers and they need the Iranians,
the Saudis and the Russians are trying to cooperate against them, while the
Iranians who have traditionally been Russian allies, want to sell oil and
natural gas to Europe, something that would hurt the Russian interests. That
shouldn’t surprise anyone, because international relations are about money and
not about friendship.
The geopolitical
objectives of the US, Russia and China in the Persian Gulf, which I just
described, is the first geopolitical axis that should be taken into account in
order to understand the Middle East. The second geopolitical axis that must be
taken into account are the objectives of the rich in oil and natural gas
countries of the region. The very rich countries of the Persian Gulf are Saudi
Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates, as you can see in
the two following tables of the US Energy Information Administration.
Richest Countries in Natural Gas Reserves (Page 21 of the following link.
Image 32
Image 33
Until about a decade ago,
before Saddam Hussein was overthrown, there were three main blocks in the
Persian Gulf. The first one was Saudi Arabia with her allies i.e. the United
Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. These countries were participating in the Gulf
Cooperation Council, which among other things, was a military doctrine against
Iran and Iraq.
The second block was Iraq.
In Iraq the majority of the population are Shia Muslims, but Saddam Hussein,
the country’s former dictator, was a Sunni Muslim. Saddam Hussein did not care
too much about religion, because he was a national socialist leader, like
Qaddafi in Libya, Assad in Syria, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and others. National
socialists believe in a secular state, contrary to the Islamist leaders of Saudi
Arabia, Qatar and Iran, who believe in a religious state and the Islamic law.
National Socialism is a combination of nationalism and socialism, while communism,
at least in theory, believes in socialism without national borders. National
socialists believe in the dominance of a national working class, while
communists believe in the dominance of an international working class.
The third main block in
the Persian Gulf were the Iranian Islamists, with Syria
Image 34
The Saudis were in very
bad terms with Iraq and Saddam Hussein, but Iran was an even greater enemy for
them. Saddam Hussein was the Iraqi leader during the brutal Iran-Iraq war of
1980-1988. The Saudis and their allies were funding Saddam Hussein during this
war, because they considered Iran as their main enemy. Actually that was the
reason that in 1991, during the military operation Desert Storm, after Saddam
Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, the Americans, the Saudis and their allies, did
not overturn Saddam Hussein, literally stopping outside Bagdad.
As you can read at the
following CNN article, titled “Massive firestorm targets Iraqi leadership”, March
2003, the Americans and their allies had destroyed the Iraqi army, and needed 2
to 4 days to enter Bagdad. And yet they decided to stop without overturning
Saddam.
21st, 22nd
and 23rd Paragraphs
With Iraqi resistance
nearing collapse, Bush declared a ceasefire on February 28, ending the Persian
Gulf War. According to the peace terms that Hussein subsequently accepted, Iraq would recognize Kuwait
Rodgers, who is
accompanying the 3rd Squadron of the 7th U.S. Cavalry Regiment, lead element of
the 3rd Infantry Division, said the U.S.
forces could reach Baghdad
Why did the US and their
allies decide not to overturn Saddam Hussein? The reason was that by
overturning Saddam Hussein, it would be easier for Iran to gain influence in
Iraq, because the majority of the Iraqi population are Shia Muslims, and the
same is true for Iran. If Iraq was to fall in the Iranian sphere of influence,
the Iranians would reach the Saudi borders, since Iraq and Saudi Arabia are
neighbouring countries.
I believe this is also the
main reason that Saddam Hussein had the nerve to ignore the U.S., the Saudis
and their allies and invade Kuwait. He knew that it would simply make things
worse for the Americans and the Saudis to overturn him. He also had a strong
army and he decided to take his chances and go for the oil of Kuwait. And
Saddam was right. He did not manage to control the oil of Kuwait for more than
a year, but his opponents did not overturn him even though he set Kuwait’s oil
fields on fire before retreating, and even though he spilled tons of oil in the
Persian Gulf, in order to burn any American troops that would attempt to invade
Iraq from the sea. And yet the Americans and their allies decided not to touch
him.
Image 35
As you can read in the
following CNN article, titled “Kuwait still recovering from Gulf War fires”,
January 2003, Saddam Hussein sent engineers to set Kuwait’s oil fields on fire,
and it took seven months before these fires were finally extinguished. Over 1
billion barrels of oil were burnt in these fires. Saddam was accusing Kuwait of
producing too much oil in order to keep the price of oil low, which he
perceived as an oil war on Iraq.
1st and 2nd
Paragraphs
In the waning days of the
Persian Gulf War, as Iraqi forces retreated to Baghdad, Saddam Hussein sent a
team of engineers into the Kuwaiti oil fields and blew up hundreds of wells.
Over the next seven months,
more than 1 billion barrels of oil went up in flames, and Kuwait and much of the Persian
Gulf was engulfed in a poisonous smoke, creating a large-scale
environmental disaster.
Even though the United
Stated decided not to overturn Saddam in 1991, they had no problem of doing so
in 2003. Why? What was different in 2003? The difference in 2003 was that
Saudi Arabia was no longer the ally she used to be for the Americans in 1991.
The Americans blame the Saudis for the 9-11 attack on the World Trade Centre. Fifteen
out of nineteen terrorists of the 9-11 attack were Saudis as you can read at
the last part of the following CNN article, titled “September 11th Hijackers Fast
Facts”, September 2014.
The Americans are not the
good customer they used to be for the Saudis. They do not buy as much oil as
they did in the past. At the same time, due to Saudi Arabia’s alliance with US,
China has stronger connections with Iran. Iran has been the traditional US
rival in the region, and as expected Iran was the country mainly approached by
China. This is a very big problem for Saudi Arabia, a country that counts on
China for her future sales, and therefore seeks a stronger connection with
China. As you can read in the following article from the site of the state
owned China Network Television CNTV, titled “Closer military ties between China,
Saudi Arabia”, February 2012, the Saudis are looking for closer military ties
with the Chinese.
As you can read in the following
article of the Wall Street Journal, titled “Saudi Arabia, China Sign Nuclear
Cooperation Pact”, January 2012, Saudi Arabia wants China to develop her
nuclear program. This has very important implications in the American-Saudi
relations, since China will be the major rival of the US in the 21st
century.
The Saudis and the Chinese
have jointly made multi-billion dollar investments in the energy sector, as you
can read in the following Bloomberg article, titled “Sinopec Buys Saudi Yanbu
Refinery Stake for $562 Million”, October 2014.
What I am saying is that
since the US is no longer the best customer for Saudi Arabia, and with China’s
role as a buyer and as an investor in the region increasing, the Saudi-American
relations cannot be what they once were. It should be very natural to expect
some members of the Saudi elites to see the US as an obstacle to their
relations with the Chinese. Moreover the Saudis always accuse the Americans for
not solving the Arab-Israeli conflict, something that the Iranians have always
used in order to attack Saudi Arabia as a US ally, thus increasing the Iranian
appeal in the Arab and Muslim populations.
Therefore the Americans
did not hesitate to take Saddam Hussein out, since they care much less about
Saudi Arabia. The American military bases have been moved to Qatar in 2003. By
overturning Saddam Hussein, a strong autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan was created in
Northern Iraq. Iraqi Kurds are the majority of the population in Northern Iraq,
and they are very friendly towards the West. Moreover in the past they have
been severely oppressed by Saddam Hussein. Kurdistan lies in four countries,
Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria (see following map).
Image 36
In addition, an Iraqi
Kurdistan not controlled by the Iraqi government, could in the future supply the
Nabucco pipeline and Europe with natural gas and oil, reducing the Russian
influence in Europe. The region of Iraqi Kurdistan is one of the richest
regions in the world in terms of oil and natural gas. As long as Saddam Hussein
was in power, the West could not buy Iraqi oil, because Saddam would use the
revenues to buy Russian arms. That’s the reason the West introduced the “oil
for food programs”, according to which the West was buying Iraqi oil in
exchange for food and medicine, so that Saddam could not use the money to buy
Russian arms.
But nobody cares if the Iraqi Kurds use their
oil revenues to buy arms, since they are allies of the Western world. Iraqi
Kurds are already exporting oil through Turkey, something that infuriates the
Iraqi government of the south, as you can read at the following Reuters
article, titled “Iraqi Kurds sell third major oil cargo, fourth heads to Croatia”,
August 2014.
1st Paragraph
Iraqi Kurdistan has
delivered its third major cargo of crude oil out of a Turkish port and a fourth
is sailing to Croatia, showing the autonomous region is finding more buyers
despite legal pressure from Baghdad and setbacks in the United States.
Moreover the overturn of
Saddam Hussein, and his replacement with a pro-Western government, allowed the
economic sanctions against Iraq to be abolished, something that greatly
increased the Iraqi oil production and kept oil prices low. The Americans had always
counted on Saudi Arabia for keeping oil prices low. With the relations between
the two countries deteriorating, the Americans could no longer count on the
Saudis. An increase in Iraqi oil production would help the cause of low oil
prices. One should never forget that Al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister of the
period 2006-2014, was pro-American, even though he was an Iranian ally, and the
Saudis were accusing him of being an Iranian agent.
Moreover the increase in
Iraqi oil production, reduced competition between USA and China. As you can
read in the following article of the New York Times, titled “China Is Reaping Biggest
Benefits of Iraq Oil Boom”, June 2013, China has greatly benefited from
Saddam’s overturn, since state owned Chinese energy companies are taking 50% of
the Iraqi oil production.
At the following article
of the Washington Post, titled “Why it’s good news for the U.S. that China is snapping
up Iraq’s oil”, June 2013, you will read that even though China is taking the
biggest part of the Iraqi oil, the US is still better off, because the Iraqi
oil helps in keeping oil prices down, and because the increased oil production
reduces competition between USA and China in other rich in oil countries.
Therefore the overturn of
Saddam Hussein was a very positive thing for the Americans. The only negative
consequence was that a large part of Iraq came under Iranian influence, but
since the Saudis were not a reliable US ally anymore, that was not a big
problem for the Americans. Actually it cannot be a coincidence that it was in
2001, after the 9-11 attack, that the US tried for the first time the Qatari
air bases, and in 2003 the Americans moved their headquarters from the Saudi
base Prince Sultan to the Al Udeid base in Qatar.
In the 16th
paragraph of the following New York Times article, titled “U.S. to Move Air Base
to Qatar”, April 2003, you can read that the Americans used the Qatari bases
for the first time in 2001. The article also says Qatar paid 1 billion dollars
built its air bases, in order to lure the US to move its headquarters there.
1st, 2nd,
3rd and 4th Paragraphs
The United States is shifting
its major air operations center for the Middle East from Saudi Arabia to Qatar,
the first step in what is likely to be a significant reduction of American
forces in Saudi Arabia and a realignment of American military presence in the
region, senior military officials said today.
The day-to-day
responsibility for overseeing hundreds of air missions in Iraq and the Middle
East will be transferred this week from Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia, to a backup headquarters the United States built last year at Al
Udeid Air base in Qatar, senior officials said.
A formal decision about
whether to make this arrangement permanent has yet to be made by President Bush
and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.
But with the war in Iraq
winding down and continued unease in Saudi Arabia about a large American
military presence in the kingdom, American commanders believe that the time is
right to see if the Qatar base can serve as the United States Central Command's
air operations center of the future.
8th and 9th
Paragraphs
Senior Bush administration
officials sought to emphasize that shifting the location of the command center
should not be interpreted as an indication that the United States was ending
its military relationship with Saudi Arabia, which has involved efforts to
train Saudi forces, as well as the use of Saudi air bases.
"We are not leaving Saudi Arabia
16th Paragraphs
Qatar built Al Udeid Air
Base in 1996 at the cost of more than $1 billion. The nation did not have an
air force at the time, but it wanted to encourage the United States
The United States did not begin to use the base
until Sept. 29, 2001, when the Air Force needed to get aircraft in position for
its war against the Taliban and the Al Qaeda terrorist network in Afghanistan
In his article, titled “The
real target of the war in Iraq was Saudi Arabia”, August 2003, Jeffrey Sacks, a
professor at Columbia University, writes that the US secret services take it for
granted that behind the 9-11 attack were the Saudis, and they attacked Iraq in
order to find new grounds that were friendly to them, in order to overcome
their problems with the Saudis. The friendly region to the US could be the
Iraqi Kurdistan.
He writes in the first
paragraph:
“The crucial question regarding Iraq is not whether the motives for
war were
disguised, but why. The argument that Iraq posed a grave and
imminent
threat was absurd to anybody not under the spell of round-the-clock
White
House and 10 Downing Street spin. But the actual reasons for
launching the
war remain obscure. The plot thickened with the release last month
of the
likely that Iraq
was attacked because Saudi
Arabia
the terrorist attacks”.
And he continues in the 6th
paragraph:
“Second, a substitute had
to be found for the US military bases in Saudi
because the US
principal irritant for
al-Qaeda. Iraq
operations. Paul Wolfowitz,
deputy defence secretary, has already explained
during an interview with
Vanity Fair”.
Iraq, after Saddam Hussein,
should not be seen as an independent block but as an Iranian ally. However a
third block was created and that was Qatar. Qatar is the third richest country
in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, and it also has some descent
quantities of oil. Once the Americans moved their military bases there, Qatar
started following an independent foreign policy without having to consult Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates anymore.
Qatar is in the middle of
Saudi Arabia and Iran, both geographically and metaphorically. Qatar and Iran
share the richest natural gas field in the world, namely the South Pars/North
Field. The Qatari part of the field is the North Fields, which holds almost all
of Qatar’s natural gas, and South Pars is the Iranian part, which holds about
2/3 of the Iranian natural gas reserves.
Image 37
As you can read at the
following Reuters article, titled “Gas-rich Qatar annoys Arabs with pro-Iran policy”,
April 2009, the Arab countries are annoyed with Qatar’s good relations with
Iran. Moreover the article says that due to the geography of the South Pars/
North Field, the Iranians could easily knock out the Qatari economy if they
wanted to.
4th Paragraph
With its liquefied natural
gas investments now paying dividends, Qatar has the second highest per capita
income in the world, although its population has doubled in five years to 1.5
million. Only 250,000 of those are nationals.
18th Paragraph
"Inviting Ahmadinejad
was promotion, not mediation. But you only have to look at the map of the north
fields to understand it: the Iranians could knock the economy out for 10 years
easily," the diplomat said.
But we should not see
Qatar as an ally of Iran. The two countries have many differences too, as we
recently saw with the Qatari funding of the Syrian rebels, in order to overthrow
the Syrian dictator Bassar al Assad, the strongest Iranian ally in the Middle
East, as you can read in the following Financial Times article, titled “Qatar bankrolls
Syrian revolt with cash and arms”, May 2013.
1st and 2nd
Paragraph
The gas-rich state of Qatar has spent as much as $3bn over
the past two years supporting the rebellion in Syria, far exceeding any other government,
but is now being nudged aside by Saudi Arabia as the
prime source of arms to rebels.
The cost of Qatar’s
intervention, its latest push to back an Arab revolt, amounts to a
fraction of its international investment portfolio. But its financial support
for the revolution that has turned into a vicious civil war dramatically
overshadows western backing for the opposition.
Qatar is an Arab country,
and has a lot in common with the other Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, but
it also shares with Iran the South Pars/North Field. Note that Iran is not an
Arab country. The Iranians are Persians.
Qatar is also investing
heavily abroad, in order to buy political influence. If you google the words
“Qatar Foreign Investments”, or “Qatar Investment Authority”, you will be very
impressed about the magnitude of Qatari investments, especially in Europe. Only
to host the World Cup of 2022, Qatar promised to invest 200 billion dollars in
infrastructure, as you can read in the following Yahoo article, titled “Qatar reportedly
spending $200 billion to build infrastructure necessary for 2022 World Cup”, July
2013. Qatar will be the first Arab country, and the first country of the Middle
East, to host the World Cup.
Many people believe that
what determines the political influence of a country abroad is its military
potency. They are very wrong. European socialists do not care about whether
Qatar or Iran has a stronger army. What they care about is who is going to
invest more in their country and who is going to pay them more. And the champion
in foreign investments is Qatar. Qatar has only 300.000 Qatari citizens to
support, since the rest of the population are foreigners who simply work there.
Moreover Qatar hosts the largest American military bases in the Middle East,
and it does not have to worry too much about its defence. Therefore Qatar has
plenty of cash to buy socialists in foreign parliaments and Jihadists in the
battlefields.
Therefore the three main
blocks of the Middle East today, are Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar, instead of
Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq that used to be the case until 2003. As I already
said the relations between the countries of the Persian Gulf are very simple.
They are competing with each other about who is going to sell more oil and
natural gas. The rich in oil and natural gas countries also compete for
influence in the neighbouring countries, not only to sell their oil and natural
gas there, but also to use them to construct their pipeline networks.
All these countries want
to sell their oil and natural gas to Europe and Asia. Africa is a poor client
and it also has its own resources. The Gulf countries are currently selling
more oil and gas to the Asian countries, because the Europeans import mainly
from Russia. As you can see in the following map, Iran has a great geographical
advantage over Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Image 38
Syria, Iraq and Lebanon
belong to the Iranian sphere of influence, and therefore Iran can construct the
Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, sending natural gas and oil to the Mediterranean Sea
and Europe, avoiding Red Sea and the Straits that increase transport costs.
Moreover Iran can send natural gas and oil to Europe through Turkey with
pipeline networks. Finally Iran can send natural gas and oil to China through
Pakistan and India.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and
Qatar do not have these options, and they can only sell to these regions by
using the sea lanes. As long as Iran is in bad terms with the West, this is not
a very big problem, because many countries cannot buy from Iran. Moreover the
Western oil and natural gas multinationals are not allowed to invest in Iran.
Therefore the Iranian production is low, and Iran is also excluded from many
markets.
But now all this is
changing because Iran is in a process of normalizing its relations with the
West, because the US and the EU want to send Iranian oil and natural gas to
Europe in order to reduce the Russian influence. This is very dangerous for all
Arab countries, but the situation is a bit better for Qatar, since Qatar and Iran
can jointly exploit the South Pars/North Field and send its gas to Europe and
Asia.
It must also be taken into
account how the countries of the Middle East behaved during the Arab Spring. To
a large extent, the Arab Spring was financed by Qatar. The major protagonist of
the Arab Spring was the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood is an
organization of Islamists that has supporters in all countries of the Middle
East and North Africa, and its main financial supporter is Qatar, while Turkey
is its main adviser in military issues.
The Arab Spring and the
Muslim Brotherhood attacked the national socialist dictators of the Middle East
and North Africa, that were either pro-Russian, as was the case with Qaddafi in
Libya and Assad in Syria, or that were controlled by Saudi Arabia as was the
case with Mubarak in Egypt. As you can read in the following Times article,
titled “Saudis told Obama not to humiliate Mubarak”, February 2011, the Saudis
asked Obama to support Mubarak. I do not think that Obama paid much attention
to the Saudis’ request.
1st and 2nd
Paragraphs
Saudi Arabia has threatened
to prop up President Mubarak if the White House tries to force a swift change
of regime in Egypt.
In a testy personal
telephone call on January 29, King Abdullah told President Obama not to
humiliate Mr Mubarak and warned that he would step in to bankroll Egypt if the US
Islamists and national
socialists have many years of clashes in these countries. During the Arab
Spring, the Islamists, with Qatari funding, Turkish military training, American
tolerance, and the pretext of elections, managed to cause major problems to the
local dictators. I refer to the issue of elections as a “pretext”, because it
was not about a true democratic reform. Hamas, the Brotherhood’s subsidiary in
Gaza, won with Qatari funding the elections in 2006 but never organized elections
again. Similarly, the Brotherhood’s candidate in Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, won with
Qatari funding the elections in 2012, and then gave himself powers that put him
above the country’s judicial system.
The same is true in
Turkey, where the Islamists Erdogan and Davutoglu, the Turkish President and
Prime Minister, two supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, are gradually
reducing whatever rights and freedoms Turkish people enjoyed under the national
socialist regime that existed before Erdogan came to power in 2003.
Even though the Arab
Spring made a good start for Qatar and Turkey, it finally went sour. In Libya,
even though the pro-Russian dictator Qaddafi was overthrown, the Muslim Brotherhood
did not manage to take control of the whole country. In Egypt, even though the
Brotherhood’s candidate Mohamed Morsi managed to defeat the Saudi controlled
dictator Hosni Mibarak, he was later overturn by General Sisi, who was heavily
funded by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In Syria, Assad is still
in power, controlling a part of the country, even though in the beginning it
looked like the pro-Russian dictator was going to be overturned. Even though the
Americans initially were very enthusiastic about overturning Assad, in the
process they have not supported the rebels as much as Qatar, Turkey and Saudi
Arabia had hoped for, because they are trying to normalize their relations with
Iran, a major ally of Assad. Moreover the Russians really stood for Assad, and
some European countries did the same thing, so it was difficult for the
Americans to overturn Assad anyway.
Moreover the Arab Spring
created a major internal conflict in the Arab world, since Qatar was the only
Arab country that supported the Muslim Brotherhood, together with Iran and
Turkey. As you can read in the following BBC article, tilted “Gulf ambassadors pulled
from Qatar over interference”, March 2014, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
and Bahrain pulled their ambassadors from Qatar.
1st Paragraph
13th, 14th
and 15th Paragraphs
Oil- and gas-rich Qatar has
been an increasingly vocal diplomatic player. It strongly supported Egypt 's now-ousted Islamist President Mohammed
Morsi and is a key backer of Islamist rebel groups in Syria
The state is home to the
influential al-Jazeera news network, which broadcasts across the world and has
been critical of Saudi Arabia
and other Gulf states
Anti-Saudi programmes
broadcast by al-Jazeera were thought to have been a major reason for Riyadh 's decision to withdraw its ambassador to Qatar
In the following CNN
article, titled “Muslim Brotherhood leader: Qatar asked us to leave”, September
2014, you can read that Qatar had to finally ask the Muslim Brotherhood leaders
to leave the country, in order to normalize its relations with the other Arab
countries.
The Muslim Brotherhood members
that were expelled from Qatar, found refuge in Turkey, as you can read in the
following New York Times article, titled “Turkey Open to Bids for Refuge by Muslim
Brotherhood Exiles”, September 2014.
1st Paragraph
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey said on Monday
that several exiled leaders of Egypt’s Muslim
Brotherhood who fled to Qatarbut lately have come
under pressure to leave that Persian Gulf monarchy could perhaps find a new
refuge in his country.
Another good article about
the Arab Spring is the Financial Times’ “Fall of Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi is blow to
Qatari leadership”, June 2013. You can read that Qatar gave Egypt 8 billion
dollars, in order to support the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohamed Morsi,
and that his overturn was a major blow to Qatar.
3rd Paragraph
Qatar has poured $8bn of
financial support into Egypt, and has been the main Gulf backer of Mr Morsi’s
government even if it began its support before he took over.
In the following Telegraph
article, titled “Saudi and UAE ready $20bn boost for Egypt's El-Sisi”, June
2014, you will read that Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates were ready to
finance with 20 billion dollars General Sisi, the man who overturn the
Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi.
At the following RT
(Russia Today) aritcle, a news agency funded by the Russian government, titled “Arab
spring: Western-backed exported Islamist revolution”, January 2012, you will
read that the Arab Spring was funded by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and it was
backed by the West, in order to establish pro-Western Islamist governments in
the Middle East and Northern Africa. The article mentions both Saudi Arabia and
Qatar, because both Saudi Arabia and Qatar attacked the pro-Russian dictators
Qaddafi and Assad, even though they funded different rebel groups.
1st Paragraph
The string of uprisings in
the Arab world boils down to Saudi Arabia and Qatar using money and influence
to hijack public dissent and bring Sunni Islamists to power, says John R.
Bradley, British author and expert on the Middle East.
At the following Reuters
article, titled “Saudi Arabia is playing chicken with its oil”, December 2014,
you will read that while Saudi Arabia and Qatar are funding the rebels in
Syria, the Iranians and the Russians are arming Assad in order to keep him in
power. The article also says that through its late oil war, Saudi Arabia wants
to squeeze the American companies that produce shale oil, but also to squeeze
Russia and Iran, in order to make it harder for them to support the Syrian
dictator, Bassar al Assad.
6th, 7th
and 8th Paragraph
While Saudi Arabia and
Qatar have been arming many of the Syrian rebels, the Iranian regime—and to a
lesser extent, Russia—have provided the weapons and funding to keep Assad in
power.
The kingdom has two targets
in its latest oil war: it is trying to squeeze U.S. Russia and Iran
The conflict is now a
full-blown proxy war between Iran
and Saudi Arabia Lebanon , then the
Sunnis of Lebanon —and by
extension, their Saudi patrons—lose a round to Iran Iraq ,
then Iran
A very good article about
why the Saudis are keeping oil prices down is “Why Saudis Decided Not to Prop
Up Oil”, December 2014, by Wall Street Journal.
Another alliance in the Middle
East that is very important is the one between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Israel
and Saudi Arabia are deeply hurt by the West rapprochement with Iran. Iran is
the deadliest enemy for both countries. Israel has a much stronger air force
than Iran, and Iran has a much stronger navy than Israel. As long as Israel and
Turkey were allies, Israel could use Turkey in order to attack Iran with its
superior air force. But Turkey is now one of Israel’s toughest enemies, and the
Israelis can no longer use Turkey in order to reach Iran. However Israel could
attack Iran through Saudi Arabia, as you can see in the following map.
Image 39
Actually Saudi Arabia is
the only possible route for Israel, since Syria and Iraq belong to the Iranian
sphere of influence, and Turkey is a very hostile to Israel country. As you can
read in the following RT (Russia Today) article, titled “Israel working with Saudi
Arabia on Iran’s nuclear contingency plan”, November 2013, the Saudis would be
willing to help Israel attack the Iranian nuclear facilities.
3rd Paragraph
It was also revealed that
the Saudis were willing to assist an Israeli attack by cooperating with the use
of drones, rescue helicopters, and tanker planes. “Once the Geneva Israel
Keep in mind that Jordan,
which lies between Israel and Saudi Arabia, is a Saudi ally, and is not in the
sphere of influence of Iran or Qatar. Qatar tried to take control of Jordan by
supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, but the Brotherhood leader in Jordan was
finally arrested, as you can read in the following New York Times article,
titled “Brotherhood Leader’s Arrest in Jordan Is Seen as Warning From Monarchy”,
December 2014, the Brotherhood leader in Jordan was arrested.
Moreover, if the Iran-Iraq-Syria
pipeline is ever built, in order to carry Iranian and Iraqi oil to the
Mediterranean Sea, the Saudis could use a pipeline that would run from Saudi
Arabia to Israel through Jordan, in order to sell their own oil to the
Mediterranean Sea too (see the following map). For the Saudis the good thing
about the Israelis is that they will never be under Iranian influence.
Image 40
As you can read in the
following i24news article, titled “As oil prices dive, Saudi Arabia looks to Israel
for new market”, December 2014, the Saudis are thinking about selling oil to
Israel. If they finally decide to sell oil to Israel, what would stop them from
using Israel to export their oil too? Note that i24news is a 24 hour Israeli TV
network that broadcasts in three languages. I have to say that the Saudis have
never recognized Israel as a country until now, and all these cannot happen
tomorrow. But the geopolitical shifts in the Middle East are huge, and things
are changing very quickly.
I must say that neither
Israel nor Saudi Arabia is afraid that the Americans will turn against them.
They are afraid that by normalizing their relations with Iran, the Americans
will adopt a more neutral stance and therefore Israel and Saudi Arabia will not
enjoy the same level of protection that they used to.
Another big problem for
the Israelis is that if the West’s economic sanctions against Iran are dropped,
the big Western oil multinationals will be able to invest in the Iranian energy
sector, and this will dramatically increase the Iranian production and
revenues. Therefore the Iranians will be able to buy and develop better arms,
and also supply Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon with more and better
guns.
For the Israelis it is a
big deal to make an alliance with Saudi Arabia against Iran, otherwise they
cannot reach the Iranian borders. On the contrary, Iran can reach Israel
through Syria, a major Iranian ally, but also through Lebanon, since Hezbollah,
the terrorist organization that runs Lebanon, is an Iranian subsidiary.
Moreover Iran has very good relations with Hamas, the terrorist organization
that controls Gaza and is mainly funded by Qatar. Therefore Iran can reach
Israel through Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, while the only possibility for the Israelis
to reach Iran is through Saudi Arabia.
Image 41
As you can read in the following
article of USA Today, titled
“Two powers, Qatar and Iran , try to sway Hamas”, November 2012, Qatar and Iran
1st, 2nd
and 3rd Paragraphs
The courtship of Hamas
between rivals Iran and Qatar has been one of the Middle East's intriguing
subplots of the Arab Spring. The bloodshed in Gaza
Qatar has sought to use its
vast wealth to win over Hamas with investments and humanitarian aid and
encouraging Arab partners to do the same — part of the hyper-rich U.S. allied
nation's broader campaign to bring under its wing Islamist movements that have
risen to power in the region the past two years. Qatar
Iran, meanwhile, is
invigorating its longtime role as the builder of the rocket arsenal for Hamas'
military wing.
The last geopolitical axis
that must be taken into account is the interaction between the great powers and
the regional players. The Russians want to block the connection of the Middle
East to Europe, and they can do so in two ways. The first one is by blocking
pipelines not controlled by the Russian government, and the second one is by
controlling the pipelines that send oil and natural gas from the Middle East to
Europe, in order to control supply and prices.
An example of a pipeline
that was blocked by the Russians was the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which would
carry Qatari natural gas to Europe through Turkey, following the route Qatar - Saudi
Arabia – Iraq – Syria -Turkey or Qatar – Kuwait – Iraq – Syria - Turkey (see
following map).
Image 42
At the following Guardian article,
titled “Syria intervention plan fuelled by oil interests, not chemical weapon concern”,
August 2013, you can read that the Syrian dictator Assad refused to allow the Qatar-Turkey
pipeline to pass through Syria, because as he said it would hurt the Russian
interests in Europe.
17th
Paragraph
These strategic concerns,
motivated by fear of expanding Iranian influence, impacted Syria primarily in
relation to pipeline geopolitics. In 2009 - the same year former French foreign
minister Dumas alleges the British began planning operations in Syria -
Assad refused to
sign a proposed agreement with Qatar that would run a
pipeline from the latter's North field, contiguous with Iran's South
Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view
to supply European markets - albeit crucially bypassing Russia. Assad's
rationale was "to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe 's top supplier of natural gas."
An example where the Russians
tried to take control of a pipeline themselves was the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline.
As you can read at the following CNBC article, titled “How Vladimir Putin and Russia
Hope to Win Big in Syria, February 2013, Gazprom would construct and manage the
Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. CNBC is one of the largest American TV networks, and
this article has a great analysis of the cold war between Russia and United
States in the Middle East and North Africa, and I suggest that you read the
whole thing.
2nd, 3rd,
4th, 5th Paragraphs
The Soviet Union acquired
the Tardus Naval Port in Syria in 1971 without any real purpose for it. With
their ships welcomed in Algeria ,
Cuba or Vietnam Russia
The Russian return to the
Middle East brought them first to where the Soviet Union
had had its closest ties. Libya
had been a major buyer of arms and many of the military officers had studied in
the Soviet Union . Russia was no longer a
global power, but it could be used by the Libyans as a counter force to block
domination by the United
States
When Gaddafi fell, Tardus
became Russia
Earlier at the United
Nations, Russia Russia
8th and 9th
Paragraphs
“What Russia lost through
the anti-Al-Assad alliance was the possibility to control the natural gas
market across Europe and the means to shape events on the continent. In July 2011,
Iran , Iraq , and Syria
agreed to build a gas pipeline from the South Pars gas field in Iran to Lebanon
and across the Mediterranean to Europe . The
pipeline that would have been managed by Gazprom would have carried 110 million
cubic meters of gas. About a quarter of the gas would be consumed by the
transit countries, leaving seventy or so million cubic meters to be sold to Europe ”.
Violence in Iraq
For the Qatar-Turkey and
the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipelines, you can also read the article of the Russian
news agency RT (Russia Today), titled “Energy ballet-2: Syria, Ukraine & Pipelineistan”,
August 2014. You can read in the article that the Emir of Qatar visited Syria
in 2009, in order to convince Assad to allow the Qatar-Turkey pipeline to pass
through Syria, but Assad refused, because the pipeline would hurt Russian and
Syrian interests. Moreover the article says that the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline
had already been agreed.
3rd, 4th,
5th Paragraphs
The Obama administration’s
Syria master plan was ‘Assad must go’; regime change would yield a
US-supported Muslim Brotherhood entity, and a key plank of Pipelineistan - the
$10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syriagas pipeline -
would be forever ditched.
The Emir of Qatar himself had taken the road to Damascus Syria ’s
energy deals with Russia
And yet, in 2001, an
agreement went ahead for a rival Iran-Iraq-Syria project. So the writing was on
the wall – or on the (steel) pipes arriving one day in the Eastern
Mediterranean . The gas for prospective European customers would in
fact come from Iran ’s South
Pars field, contiguous to Qatar
7th Paragraphs
Thus the key economic
rationale for the whole ‘Assad must go’ disaster; a war OF terror largely
financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with logistical support from Turkey, with
Ankara, the CIA and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) gang running a ‘secret’
weaponizing airlift of so-called ‘good’ jihadists using Saudi, Qatari and
Jordanian military cargo planes since 2012.
23rd Paragraphs
Nabucco’s idea was to bring
gas to the EU via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary
and Austria Turkmenistan
and Kazakhstan Iran
Now let’s turn to the
Americans. The Americans want to connect Middle East to Europe through Turkey,
in order to reduce Russian influence in Europe. This can be done if the Jihadists
of Qatar and Turkey win in Syria and Iraq, so that the Qatar-Turkey pipeline
can be built, or if the Iraqi Kurds send natural gas and oil to Europe through
Turkey, or finally if the Americans manage to reach an agreement with Iran,
which I think would be the most convenient way for the Americans to supply
Europe with natural gas and oil. They could also use a combination of all the
above.
The Arab Spring was very
convenient for the Americans, because it would bring to power in the countries
of the Middle East and North Africa Islamist leaders controlled by their
allies, Qatar and Turkey, and therefore the Russians would not be able to
control the pipelines connecting Middle East and North Africa to Europe.
Finally China is trying to
ensure its energy security by investing billions of dollars in all countries of
the Middle East. China has heavily invested in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Iraq
and United Arab Emirates. However the traditional ally of China in the Middle
East is Iran, because Iran has been a traditional American enemy. It is Saudi
Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar that are under pressure, in order to convince
China to move away from Iran and towards them, because they all desperately need
to sell oil and natural gas to China.
What I am going to say now
is irrelevant to the subject but it is important in order to combat socialist
propaganda. According to socialist propaganda, the Arab countries do not have
an independent foreign policy, and they do as they are told by the Americans.
You should examine the foreign policy of the Arabs in relation to China, which
is a geopolitical rival of the US, but a great customer for the Arabs, and not the
Arab foreign policy in relation to Russia, which is a geopolitical rival of the
US, but a great competitor of the Arabs too. At the following pie charts you
can see the best clients of Saudi Arabia.
Image 43
Therefore whenever a
socialist tells you that the Arab countries do as they are told by the
Americans, you should talk to him about the Arab foreign policy towards China,
which is a rival for the US and a customer for the Arabs, and also explain to
him that when it comes to Russia, the Arab countries are behind the Americans
because Russia is a great competitor for them in the oil and natural gas markets.
I say so because above all this booklet aims in combating Communist and Nazi
propaganda, and the only way this can be done is by explaining to the people
what is really going on.
The way Saudi Arabia and
Iran are approaching the US and China is actually very interesting. The Saudis
are mainly selling to Asia, and therefore they want to turn away from the US. The
US is no longer their best customer, and the Americans are not even willing to
intervene in the Saudi-Iranian conflicts in the same way they used to do in the
past, because they want to normalize their relations with the Iranians. Therefore
the Saudis want to turn towards the best client, which is China. For the Saudis
China would be the perfect customer and patron.
The problem for the Saudis
is that even though China has invested billions in Saudi Arabia, she has much stronger
ties with Iran than she has with Saudi Arabia. Therefore it is not easy for
Saudi Arabia to completely abandon the US and turn to China. At the following
analysis of the Wilson Centre, one of the major American think tanks, titled “Iran’s
Rouhani Puts U.S.- Saudi Ties to the Test”, October 2013, you can read that two
former Saudi foreign ministers, Prince Bandar bin Sultan and Turki al-Faisal,
said that whether the Saudis like it or not, they cannot abandon the Americans
completely. As I just said the problem for the Saudis is that China has
stronger bonds with Iran than Saudi Arabia, and Russia, the other big player,
is a major competitor of Saudi Arabia in the oil markets. Moreover the
Americans are still buying Saudi oil.
5th Paragraph
In fact, the Saudi view of
the U.S. track record in the Middle East since President George W.Bush’s
“freedom agenda” to promote democracy and then his 2003 decision to invade Iraq
amounts to a long indictment of American missteps and misjudgments for which
Saudi Arabia has paid the cost and Iran collected the dividends. The U.S. invasion of Iraq
resulted, in the words of Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, in a
pro-Iranian Shiite government that “handed Iraq
to Iran
7th and 8th
Paragraphs
Then came the 2011 “Arab
Spring” in the name of democracy, which the Obama administration tried
awkwardly to embrace along with the Muslim Brotherhood and similar Islamic
groups that won elections in Egypt ,
Tunisia , and Morocco Yemen
and Syria Egypt and Syria
The bitter Syrian civil war
has become the latest bone of contention in the fraying U.S.-Saudi relationship.
Since Iran and its Lebanese
ally, Hezbollah, are backing Syrian President Bashar alAssad and Saudi Arabia is backing his overthrow, Syria
12th and 13th
Paragraphs
The problem now for Saudi
Arabia is how to protect itself from the fallout of a U.S.-Iranian thaw and
possible long-term rapprochement. In the mid-2000s, King Abdullah sought to
diversify the kingdom’s foreign friends away from Washington ,
taking his first trip abroad as king to China Saudi Arabia
with medium-range DF-3 missiles, capable even of carrying nuclear warhead to
protect it from Iran China has sent more
missiles and helped the Saudis built a second launching site with its Chinese
missiles aimed at both Iran
and Israel
The Saudis know, however,
that China is no substitute
for the United States when
it comes to ability, or political readiness, to project military power in the Middle East . So, the kingdom is in the process of
purchasing $60 billion worth of all kinds of U.S. Saudi Arabia
15th and 16th
Paragraphs
Two former
American-educated Saudi ambassadors to Washington, Princes Bandar bin Sultan and
Turki al-Faisal, both came to the same conclusion after decades of dealing with
Saudi foreign policy: like it or not, “the only game in town” for the Saudis
was the United States. Whether this attitude will survive a U.S.-Iranian
opening remains to be seen. The Saudi leadership has become used to coping with
serious differences with Washington
On the other side, Iran
wants to sell its oil and natural gas to Europe, which is the best client, but it
is afraid that this might cause problems to its relations with China and
Russia. And maybe destroying its alliance with Russia is not a big deal for Iran,
but it is when it comes to China, because China is a major buyer of Iranian
oil.
Qatar is trying to lure
China too. As you can read in the 4th paragraph of the following Al
Arabiya article, titled “Qatar looks East: Growing importance of China’s LNG market”,
November 2014, China is Qatar’s fourth largest client, following Japan, India,
and South Korea. In the 8th paragraph of the following article you
can read that when it comes to liquefied natural gas, Qatar is the world’s
largest exporter. That is if natural gas sold by pipelines is not taken into
account. When all natural gas sales are taken into account, Russia is the
world’s largest exporter. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/business/2014/11/24/Qatar-looks-East-Growing-importance-of-China-s-LNG-market.html
At the following Reuters
article, titled “Qatar to become first Middle East clearing hub for China's yuan”,
November 2014, you will read that China created in Qatar her first hub for
clearing transactions in Chinese Yuan, in order to reduce her dependency on the
dollar.
1st, 2nd
and 3rd Paragraphs
“Qatar will become the
Middle East's first hub for clearing transactions in the Chinese yuan, in a
step that could over the long run help Gulf oil exporting countries reduce
their dependence on the U.S. dollar.
Industrial and Commercial
Bank of China's Doha branch has been appointed as the clearing bank for yuan
deals in Qatar, China's central bank said on Tuesday.
"The signing of the
MoU and the appointment of the renminbi clearing bank will increase the strong
ties between China and Qatar and position Qatar
11th Paragraph
Qatar, which has some $43
billion in net foreign currency reserves and an estimated $170 billion in its
sovereign wealth fund, is the biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas to
China.
At the following Reuters
article, titled “China's CNPC, Qatar Petroleum planning JV in China”, January 2011,
you can read about the joint investments that the state owned China National
Petroleum Corporation CNPC, and the state owned Qatar Petroleum are planning in
Qatar and China.
1st, 2nd
and 3rd Paragraph
China and Qatar will
strengthen cooperation in the oil and gas industries and the top oil companies
of the two countries plan joint venture projects in China, the government said
on Thursday.
During a meeting between
visiting Qatar
"Both sides talked
about planned joint venture projects in China between China National Petroleum
Corp (CNPC) and Qatar
However Qatar would not
want to see the American army leaving the country, because that would make
Qatar very vulnerable to Saudi Arabia and Iran. Qatar would stop being an
independent player if it stopped hosting the American military bases. When it
comes to buying political power abroad Qatar is the number one country, but in
military terms Qatar is very weak when compared to the Saudis and the Iranians.
It is one thing to buy socialists in foreign parliaments, and another to face
the Saudi and the Iranian armies. The first one requires money and the second
one requires guns.
All the wars in the Middle
East are about oil and natural gas. Divisions between Sunni and Shia Muslims,
Muslims and Jews, Arabs and Jews, Islamists and secularists, Arabs and Persians
(Iranians), and so on, are of only secondary importance to these wars, and I
want to give some examples to demonstrate that this is so.
The first example is the
Kurdish people who are both Sunni and Shia Muslims, but they are united because
they consider their Kurdish identity as more important than their religious
identity.
The second example is that
Erdogan’s Sunni Turkey had very good relations with Syria, which is governed by
Assad, an Allawite Muslim, until Assad agreed with Iran and Iraq to construct the
Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. From that moment on Erdogan started treating Assad as
a great enemy, constantly pressing for his overturn. Allawites are an off shoot
of Shia Islam. However this did not bother and did not stop Erdogan from having
very good relations with Assad, until the latter agreed to the construction of
the Iran-Iraq-Syria Pipeline, which would bypass Turkey as an energy hub.
The third example is the
Iraqi elections of 2010. In these elections, Saudi Arabia, which is a
predominantly Sunni and a theocratic country, supported Ayad Allawi, a Shia
Muslim and a secular nationalist. The Sunni Saudis, decided to support a
secular Shia Muslim, in a country that has a Sunni population of around 35%.
They did so because the majority of the population in Iraq are Shia Muslims,
and they thought they had better chances to gain influence in Iraq by
supporting a Shia candidate. Moreover Ayad Allawi was not in good terms with
Iran, and Iraq would not fall in the Iranian sphere of influence if he was to
become the next president. However he did not win the elections.
The fourth example is
Iran, Qatar and Hamas. The Iranians, who are Shia Muslims, had very good
relations with Hamas, the Sunni terrorist organisation that controls Gaza,
which is mainly funded by Sunni Qatar. Even though Sunni Qatar and Shia Iran
disagree on many issues, they are both very rich in natural gas, and they are
united against Israel which started selling natural gas, harming the interests
of both Qatar and Iran. At the following map you can see how Qatar and Iran,
that are both very rich in natural gas, can cooperate in order to attack
Israel, Qatar by using Hamas, its subsidiary in Gaza, and Iran by using
Hezbollah, its subsidiary in Lebanon.
Image 44
Qatar and Turkey are the
main allies of Hamas, as you can read in the following Time article, titled “Hamas
Still Has Some Friends Left”, July 2014:
4th Paragraph
Hamas has two clear allies,
according to Middle East experts: Qatar and Turkey. Both have given Hamas their
public support and financial assistance estimated to be in the hundreds of
millions of dollars.
For Iran and Hezbollah you
can read the following BBC article, titled “Who are Hezbollah”, July 2010
1st, 2nd Paragraphs
Hezbollah - or the Party of
God - is a powerful political and military organisation in Lebanon
It emerged with financial
backing from Iran in the
early 1980s and began a struggle to drive Israeli troops from Lebanon
23rd Paragraphs
The party was long
supported by Iran
The fifth example is Sunni
Saudi Arabia and the Sunni organization of Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia
recently designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation as you
can read in the following Reuters article, titled “Saudi Arabia
designates Muslim Brotherhood terrorist group”, March 2014
However in the past, Saudi Arabia used to give
shelter to the members of the Muslim Brotherhood that were exiled from their
countries. But now that the Muslim Brotherhood is funded by Qatar and has good
relations with Iran, and it went against Mubarak in Egypt, the Saudis
designated it as a terrorist organization.
Moreover the Muslim
Brotherhood accuses Saudi Arabia for its relations with the Americans, and at
the same time the Brotherhood is mainly funded by Qatar, which hosts the
largest American military bases in the Middle East.
The sixth example is the
Gaza war of July 2014. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which
are all Sunni Muslim countries, blamed the Sunni Muslims of Hamas and not the
Israeli Jews. The reason is that Hamas is a subsidiary of the Muslim
Brotherhood and it also has strong ties with Iran. You can read the following
New York Times article, titled “Arab Leaders, Viewing Hamas as Worse Than Israel,
Stay Silent”, July 2014.
Therefore Middle East wars
are, and have always been, energy wars. That does not mean that the Sunnis love
the Shias, or that the Arabs love the Jews, or that Islamists love secularists
and so on. It simply means that Middle East countries do not go to painful and
expensive wars for such reasons. They go to wars for oil and natural gas, and
they do not hesitate to form alliances with groups of any nationality, religion
or ideology in order to prevail in these energy wars. All countries of the
Middle East use religion, nationality and ideology as tools, in order to
prevail in the oil and natural gas wars. I want to give the example of Iran and
Israel.
Iran has used the war
against Israel in order to gain influence in the Sunni Arab world, at the
expense of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia was a US ally, and the Americans were
protecting Israel. The Iranians are not even Arabs, they are Persians. They are
also Shia Muslims in a Muslim world that is predominantly Sunni. Sunni Muslims
are 85%-90% of all Muslims, as you can read at the following BBC article,
titled “Sunnis and Shia in the Middle East”, December 2013.
3rd Paragraph
The majority of Muslims are
Sunnis - estimates suggest the figure is somewhere between 85% and 90%.
Therefore the Iranians had
a great disadvantage over the Saudis, because they are Shia and Persians. By
fighting Israel, the Iranian prestige in the Sunni Arab world was greatly
enhanced at the expense of Saudi Arabia. If both the Iranians and the Saudis
were in good terms with the Americans, and Israel was not blocking about 1/3 of
their exit to the Mediterranean Sea, who would really care about Israel? As you
can see on the following map, Israel is blocking a large part of the Saudi,
Iraqi, Qatari and Iranian exit to the Mediterranean Sea.
Image 45
If Israel was located
where I have made the red circle on the above map, and both the Saudis and the
Iranians were in good terms with the Americans nobody would care about Israel.
Another recent example
about how the Muslims are using Israel to achieve their geopolitical goals is
what the Turkish President Recep Erdogan did. Erdogan had very good relations
with Israel, but as soon as the Israelis recognized the Cypriot exclusive
economic zone, in order to jointly exploit their natural gas with the Cypriots,
Erdogan has become one of Israel’s outspoken enemies.
Image 46
After the Israelis
recognized the Cypriot exclusive economic zone, Erdogan sent the Gaza Freedom
Flotilla with Mavi Marmara, which caused the diplomatic relations between
Israel and Turkey to collapse. By fighting Israel Erdogan became a hero in the
Arab and Muslim world. Israel also put forward the issue of the East Med
pipeline, a natural gas pipeline that would run from Israel to Europe, through
Cyprus and Greece, bypassing Turkey as an energy hub.
Image 47
For the East Med pipeline
you can read at the following Reuters article, titled “Greece , Cyprus
and Israel
You can also read the
following Natural Gas Europe article, titled “EC Grants Conditional Support to
East Med Pipeline”, December 2014
The problem for the
Israelis is that after they decide to exploit their natural gas reserves, it is
no longer only the US enemies that are attacking them, but also the US allies,
as it is the case with Turkey and Qatar. In the past the US allies used to
tolerate Israel, even if they didn’t like it. But now Israel is an economic
rival for both Qatar and Turkey, and they use their organization in Gaza to
attack it.
Moreover the Israelis are
true economic competitors for the Iranians. In the past the Iranians simply
used Israel to increase their appeal in the Sunni Arab world against Saudi
Arabia. But now things are different. Israel is a true economic competitor for
Iran. Maybe the Israeli gas reserves are peanuts when compared to the Iranian
and Qatari ones, but the two deals that the Israelis singed with the Egyptians
and the Jordanians involved 45 billion dollars, and that’s a lot of money.
For the natural gas
agreement between Israel, Egypt and Jordan, see the following FT article,
titled “Israel gas supply deals to Egypt and Jordan draw closer”, May 2014.
See also my essay “The
Israel-Egypt-Jordan Natural Gas Agreement and the July 2014 War in Gaza”. Saudi
Arabia is mainly concerned about oil and not about natural gas, and she could
use Israel to sell her oil to the Mediterranean Sea, and she is much softer on
Israel as I said.
A Reader’s Manual
This booklet should not be
used as a tool to understand the Middle East, because everyday new alliances
are formed, and new conflicts appear. As I write this document in December
2014, Qatar has declared its support to the Egyptian president Al-Sisi, in
order to normalize its relations with the other Arab countries, as you can read
at the following Yahoo article, titled “Qatar gives 'full support' to Sisi's Egypt”,
December 2014.
At the same time the Saudis
have met with the Iranian Foreign Minister, in an effort to normalize the
relations between the two countries, as you can read in the following article of
the Times of Iran, titled “Saudi Arabia invites Zarif to come and talk peace”, December
2014.
Maybe there are many other
changes that I am not aware of. What I am trying to say is that alliances and
conflicts in the Middle East change every day. What remains constant is oil and
natural gas. Therefore what a person reading this booklet should keep in mind,
is that the Middle East should always be
examined under the prism of oil and natural gas. All other information is only
important for someone who wants to become a specialist in the Middle East or an
academic. For all of us who simply want to understand the wars in the Middle
East, oil and natural gas will do the job.
For the
rest of my essays please visit the following address
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